New Zogby Poll: Dean slightly ahead nationally

[CMT]

New Zogby poll is out and here are the results in race for Dem nomination:

Dean: 12% (no change since Sept)
Clark: 10% (down from 12%)
Kerry: 9% (up from 7%)
Lieberman 8% (up from 5%)
Gephardt 5% (down from 6%)
Braun 5% (up from 4%)
Edwards 3% (up from 2%)
Sharpton 3% (down from 4%)
Kucinich 1% (no change)

In match-ups against Bush:
Bush 46% Clark 37% (-9%)
Bush 47% Dean 39% (-8%)
Bush 45% Kerry 41% (-4%)
Bush 47% Gephardt 38% (-9%)
Bush 46% Lieberman 38% (-8%)

Against generic democrat Bush loses 43-45%

Bush's overall approval rating is 49% positive 51% negative

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=747

[LuminousX]

1. Overall, I'm glad to see this BUT

I am also realistic and know that national polls at this point don't mean much. It is a quick read to see how well the nation at large knows the candidates' names and that is prety much it.

I'm also really glad to see in the match ups all our big guys are doing well.

Overall, this is good news for everyone.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Kerry again Bush's strongest opponent

not that I really care about these things but it does show Kerry's the best choice for the general.

[blm]

3. Kerry does the best against Bush.

Interesting, since he seems to get much less media attention than Dean and Clark.

[ModerateMiddle]

6. It might be because of all the media

that Dean and Clark get, it's mixed media - some pro, some con.

I'm not surprised to see Kerry doing so well against Bush, though, because he, like Clark, has a lot of cross-party appeal.

[CMT]

11. will I think

the talk about Dean being unelectable should also be muted. In a state like NH where all the candidates are well known Dean leads among Independents and I consider that more reliable than other states which have not really been watching the race. All the candidates are doing pretty well against Bush in this poll--especially Kerry. Dean and Lieberman are 8-points down and Clark and Gep are 9-points down.

[CMT]

7. yes

Kerry did make biggest gain against Bush. One thing though is recent polls show that most of them are viable against Bush.

[LuminousX]

4. +/-3% Statistical Dead Heat nt

eskimo

[diplomats]

5. What's significant is all those Dems have gained

against Bush since Zogby's last poll. They were all 10-12 points behind. Kerry made the biggest jump. See http://www.pollingreport.com

[ModerateMiddle]

9. I bet it's his tax position

that he's been touting - no repealing of the middle class tax cuts.

[whirlygigspin]

8. this poll makes no sense

If I am to beleive this poll, the invisible man wins but none of
the candidates do?

huh?

[LuminousX]

12. Dems not supporting Dems

When the option is Dean vs Bush and you are are Kerry supporter, you aren't going to say you will vote for Dean, you wait until Kerry is an option, but in your heart you know that any Dem is better than Bush so when the generic question is asked, you support the Dem.

That is just the nature of this thing. When we get down to our candidate against Bush, we will have to pay a bit more attention to the polls.

[ModerateMiddle]

14. I think it's more that they don't know the candidate

Remember, they're not pulling DU'ers. They're polling the general populace, and MOST of them are not paying attention yet. They might have heard a good thing or two, or perhaps a bad thing or two about a couple of the candidates. There is a baseline that WILL pick "ABB" in that kind of a poll - perhaps as many as 30-35%. After that, if they don't know anything about the candidate, they'll fall into the "I dunno" category.

IMO, anyone (D) paying attention at this point will respond to a poll saying that they'd vote for whoever is pitted against Bush. The difference is for the "Huh? An election? When?" crowd.

[ConservativeDemocrat]

10. FINALLY - A REAL POLL

This is a "likely voter" poll, not a "I lean Democratic but never actually bother to vote" poll. Dean is ahead on this tracking poll, and is likely to remain so.

Yet while the "generic Democrat" beats Bush, all the actual candidates don't - because Democrats are plagued with people who care just enough to have an opinion when asked, but don't bother to go express it at the polls. Without this problem, Democrats would win every time.

SO -- rather than beat up Democratic candidates you don't like on this internet forum, go do the one thing that will help collectively turn this next election around: VOLUNTEER FOR YOUR LOCAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY. They're in the phone book.

If you don't do that, don't whine. You're part of the problem.

- C.D.

[10376173]

13. Zogby

The hidden good news here is also that polling freaks generally acknowledge that the Zogby polls are always seem to come out alittle skewed to Republican candidtates. You can see it anytime a Zogby poll and another organization post #'s at the same time.

The bottom line is that the Shrubs #'s are more than likely less than the Zogby (himself a republican) #'s

[annxburns]

15. Bush bounce

hey man, what happened to the much reported "Bush bounce" looks like he is still sliding to me.

[diplomats]

17. Actually, Zogby's a Democrat

but his polls survey likely voters, so by nature they are more conversative because Repukes turn out to vote more than Dems - usually. BTW, welcome to DU :)

[Larkspur]

16. What this poll basically says is...

that after the Dems pick their nominee, he will beat Bush provided he doesn't get drowned by the Bush-Rove media machine.

When I look at the stats for generic Dem and the Dems within striking distance of beating Bush, it says that the field is too fragmented to make the choice. After the Dem nominee is chosen and that nominee has the full attention of the media and the nation, and that nominee works to get his message out to the public, the American public is willing to listen to what the Dem nominee has to say. So the Dem nominee's message better be sound and the Dem nominee better be willing to fight to get his message out against the roar of the Repuke media machine!

[diplomats]

18. Good analysis

[sandnsea]

19. Proud or ashamed... WTF?????

I'm just starting to look through this poll, but who are these fuckwads? 51% of Independents and 31% of Democrats are PROUD!!!!!!! I'm more than ashamed, I'm horrified! Aaagggh!

"When asked if they are proud or ashamed of George W. Bush as President, nearly three in five (57%) likely voters say they are proud, one-quarter (26%) say they are ashamed, and one-fifth (18%) are not sure. Nearly nine in ten (87%) Republicans say they are proud, compared to 4% who say they are ashamed. A majority (51%) of Independents are proud, with 30% ‘ashamed,” while 31% of Democrats say they are proud of the president and 43% are ashamed."

[UnapologeticLiberal]

20. This poll is great news

Not only is Dean winning nationwide, but he actually loses to Bush by less than some of the other candidates. Usually polls show Bush beating him by a point or two more than the other candidates.

This is good news for Kerry, too...according to this poll, he is within the margin of error of beating Bush.

The thing is, the field is so bunched up right now that these polls are not that significant. Every poll seems to show someone else on top...the only polls that really are indicative right now are the polls in the early primary states.

Mousepads, Shoe Leather, and Hope

[gully]

21. Very interesting thanks!!!

:thumbsup: