Please Check My Math

[displacedtexan]

If my math skills haven't totally blitzed out on me, the latest Zogy poll shows that John Kerry is the one Democrat who has the best chance of beating the freak monkey:
bush kerry
45% 41%

and the margin of error is 3.3%

No other dem is closer than 8 points.
Did I read this correctly?

from Zogby:

The president would outpoll any of the current leading Democratic contenders if the election were held today. He would earn 46% of the vote against retired General Wesley Clark’s 37%; would beat former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, 47% - 39%; would poll 45% against Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s 41%; would win over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt 47% - 38%, and would beat Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, 46% - 38%.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=747

[curse10]

1. That's how I read it

:shrug:

[LuminousX]

2. You are reading it correctly.

Kerry is polling 4% better than his closest competitor.

[dfong63]

3. your error

there are at least 2 errors in your reasoning.

first, read the fine print: "if the election were held today". but the election isn't being held today. the election isn't until next year. a lot can change in a year. just look at the variation in Bush's poll numbers over the last year. and if nothing were to change in the coming year, then Bush would beat Kerry anyway according to your "math".

second, this is only a poll, based on a limited sample size. polls are often wrong.

no, you did not interpret the poll results correctly.

HTH.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. Sure, for what it's worth.

But it's just a national poll, 13 months before the election. We've got several candidates who can beat Bush.

[Lady President]

5. You're right

This is actually a very simple and commonly used type of poll. The only real thing it shows is who is closest to Bush*.

Also, it is not a flawed poll because it says "if elections were held today." Everyone knows that things change, but it is a reflection of what is happening currently. Eliminating "if elections were held today" or something similar would mean there could never be a pre-election poll. (Clark is, of course, still a wild card until people learn more about him.)