another New Hampshire poll out – Dean leads Kerry by 14

[pruner]

Dean 33%
Kerry 19%
Clark 7%
Gephardt 4%
Edwards 4%
Lieberman 3%
Kucinich 1%
Modeley-Braun 0%
Shapton 0%

conducted Oct. 13-15

The poll of 600 Democrats and independents had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2003-10-21-dean-poll_x.htm

[Pez]

1. this one is more recent-- Oct. 17-19...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=108&topic_id=64460&mesg_id=64460

i hate polls though :-\

[blm]

2. Of course he does. It's the Franklin Pierce College poll.

 

Dean holds 14-point lead over Kerry in New Hampshire poll
WASHINGTON (AP) — Howard Dean holds a double-digit lead over rival John Kerry in a New Hampshire poll of likely voters in the state's Democratic presidential primary.

Dean had the support of 33% to Kerry's 19% in the Franklin Pierce College poll conducted Oct. 13-15. The two essentially were tied in July in the last Franklin Pierce survey.
>>>>>>

Barbara Pierce Bush/Marlin Fitzwater School of Communications

[pruner]

3. I don't understand what you're getting at

please elaborate

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. It goes something like this:

The Barbara Pierce Bush/Marlin Fitzwater School of Communications is the Communications building at Pierce College. :tinfoilhat:

Note that there are three or four other polls that support the findings of Pierce College, but hey, you couldn't spin it as "The Repugs Support Dean" now then could ya?

[blm]

14. Not so much the Repugs support Dean, as....

they will do anything to deflate the Kerry campaign in the primary. Kerry is TOO dangerous for them if the media focused on him.

[pruner]

16. LOL

you must get dizzy from all that spinning you do.

[blm]

20. Laugh all you want.

You must not be much of a current history major, as everyone fully cognizant of Kerry's work to expose the underhandedness of the BFEE over the last 20 years would conclude that Bush in 2004 does NOT want to face the man who exposed BCCI, IranContra and the roles of various Bushes and their operatives in funding terrorism.

[LuminousX]

17. "they will do anything to deflate the Kerry campaign"

Anything short of murder.


I saw Kerry on Chris Matthews the other night and came away as I always come away from Kerry, impressed but not excited. Let's address ways to help Kerry get more media attention. If Bush is able to circumvent the media, so can Kerry.

[Nazgul35]

22. was it ever inflated...

I mean really? Was there ever a time when a significant portion of the public was excited about the candidacy of Kerry? Other than name recognition in national polls, he has been behind in every poll in NH since Dean made his push in the beginning of May....and the media only began to notice Dean after he made his dramatic fundraising effort in the second quarter....

spin this all you want, but the Kerry campaign is in trouble....many people feel that if it is not going to be Dean, the alternative is Clark...not Kerry, Gephardt is at least able to hold his own in Iowa...

That said, it is still way to early to say anything...if Dean wins Iowa, Kerry is in trouble in NH, as the coverage the top three finishers will receive will be worth about $50 million in free advertising, than watch as all those undecides become decided....and with a short primary season (about 85% of delegates will be chossen by mid Feb...), if Dean wins both Iowa and NH, he will have an incredible amount of momentum going into Feb...

So whomever the top three in Iowa and top two in NH are, that's where the race will be....

[CMT]

4. but what about the 17-point lead in the Democracy Corp

poll that Dean had released on Friday? That was conducted by Stan Greenberg and Bob Schrum (who advises Kerry) as well as Carville were founders of the Democracy Corp.

By the way, Kerry gave a speech at Franklin Pierce College earlier this year. I don't think there polls are biased just becuz of Barbara Pierce Bush or Marlin Fitzwater--but I always get a good laugh when you make that argument.

Also in their last survey, Kerry and Dean were statistically tied (in July).

[LuminousX]

6. Let's dissect it

Could there be any possible way for that poll to be influenced in a partisan manner? If so, is it skewed from what other polls are saying? If it is skewed then we have to consider it an anomalous datum on the chart. If it isn't, then we can only conclude that the partisan influence is very slight.

These results are consistent with other polls. To then assume there is partisan influence in this poll is to assume there is a more accurate set of polls reflecting a different data structure that is represented in this and the various other polls. So the aspersion being cast is a tactical attempt to neutralize this particular poll result. To what end?

Why would someone want to neutralize a reflection, admittedly imperfect by the nature of polling, of the reality of the political climate?

I see a lot of talk about people not liking polls or trusting polls yet there seems to be a lot of credence put in the polls. The fact of the matter, polls are the only way we have of pretesting ideas in the political marketplace. The real concern is how much weight to put on the poll. The skill is interpretting the polls not in dismissing it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. But they have a building named after Bush and Fitzwater!

Why do you refuse to see the truth? Try to deny that Reagan International is a Republican airport, smarty pants!


:grr: //

[LuminousX]

8. Your Kung-Fu is stronger than mine

Reagan International... you must be correct, only right winger Republican's are allowed to fly in and out of that airport. Only registered Republicans are allowed to work there. Every airline that flies in and out must give money to the Republican party.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Exactly!

Not to mention that all the planes had their left wings removed!

[RogueTrooper]

10. ROFLMAO

:evilgrin:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. I'm not lying! There's a monument out front!

:evilgrin:

[RogueTrooper]

13. Maaaaaaan

I'm hurtin'

:evilgrin:

[blm]

11. That wasn't their last survey.

I am not a slave to polls, and in fact have stated that I don't think the polls will be of any significance till November, as you should well know by now...I just discredit ANY poll by Pierce College and have said so consistently.

[LuminousX]

15. Just because you do doesn't mean everyone should

As there isn't any evidence that they have a bias or intentionally skew their polls.

[blm]

19. Should I not post MY views? Whose should I post?

CATO's?

As a longtime BFEE opposer, I have learned not to trust ANYTHING associated with the Bushes because they are the most selfserving group in American history, imo.

[LuminousX]

21. No, post your views, just don't expect them to be the end of the argument.

nt

[blm]

23. That's absurd. I never purported they should be.

Go pick on a post that starts off with, "Let's settle this once and for all."

[RevolutionStartsNow]

18. Excellent! It will be interesting to see...

if Clark and Lieberman rise in the NH polls as they intend to focus more on this state now that they are out of Iowa. They both seem to have a long way to go in NH.

It's starting to get past "It's way too early..." Less than 100 days.