Charlie Cook suggests that Kerry should throw Iowa support to Gep...

[unfrigginreal]

to thwart Dean.

----

The only clear conclusion from these data is that Dean is in a
formidable position in New Hampshire, but locked into either a two- or three-way fight in Iowa. In South Carolina, the race looks wide open, with Edwards possibly ahead but four other candidates within four points of first place. It is the very definition of a wide-open contest.

The question of exactly where Kerry is in New Hampshire is potentially important. If Kerry could pull off a win in Iowa, then his chances of closing the gap between himself and Dean in New Hampshire are better. But if Kerry can't win in Iowa, his only chance of beating Dean in New Hampshire will be if Gephardt can halt the Dean momentum in Iowa. Thus, if it becomes apparent that Kerry can't win in Iowa, he would be well-advised to have his Iowa supporters throw their caucus votes to Gephardt in an effort to weaken Dean.

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/001935.html#152643

[CMT]

1. Iowa is a must win for Gep, not so for Dean

Obviously Dean would like to win it, but Dean doesn't necessarily have to win Iowa to "win"--a solid second could give him momentum going into NH. It would show a good level of support outside of new england. Of course, Dean has a great organization and lots of supporters in Iowa and in a caucus state organziation and turnout is everything--so it is still a viable option that Dean could actually win Iowa. But, politically speaking, if I were the Dean people I would start saying, "second place would be great with me." to lower expectations.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. So NH is a must win for Dean

so if Dean doesn't win what happens?
Is anything a must win for Dean?

[pruner]

9. nothing happens to Dean if he doesn't win NH

unlike Kerry,he isn't putting all his eggs in one basket.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. well I see where Dean has spent more days in Iowa

than any other state. What's up with that?

[pruner]

12. probably cause Iowa's a get-to-know-you state

and I'd guess that all those visits are paying off… as evidenced by his polling status.

and despite all the time he's spent in Iowa, he's leading in NH, Arizona, Michigan & other states.

is there any state other than Mass where Kerry is leading? is he even leading there?

[CMT]

11. Since you bring up NH

But since you brought up NH, I have come to believe that anything less than a win for Dean there would be interpeted as a major defeat. Dean can survive a loss in Iowa but not so in NH. I also think Kerry also will be badly hurt if he doesn't win NH.

[unfrigginreal]

13. Dean can last without a win in NH due to his fundraising but...

he would be a wounded candidate at that point. It would be much more difficult for him to win the nomination.

[dsc]

16. Thanks to his fundraising, it isn't

but I think he needs a win in either NH or IA or to finish in very strong seconds. Given both his fundraising prowess and the fact he is in good shape in some other early states I don't think losses will knock him out.

[unfrigginreal]

8. Agree with you on the lowering of expectations for Iowa...

In this case they should follow the lead of the Clark folks who today put out that they would be thrilled with a 4th place finish in NH. Now, everybody knows that's a load of bull, but this way they'll be able to spin their 3rd place finish in NH as a win for their candidate.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

2. Things like this...

just fire up the Dean supporters...I don't think Kerry will do this, but it would likely backfire.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

3. How silly.

[blm]

4. Charlie Cook is a Repub. Why should Kerry listen to him?

Why would Dean's blog promote such deceit?

[hedda_foil]

6. It was posted by a supporter as a comment, not on the main blog page.

I'm pretty damn sure you already figured that out, blm, but you won't miss a chance to throw accusations at Dean.

[pruner]

7. you're the one promoting deceit

Dean's blog is not endorsing this concept…someone posted about it there for the purpose of discussion… the same reason (I'm assuming) it was posted here.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

14. It just shows which candidate the Repubs fear most: Kerry.

[unfrigginreal]

15. Huh?

This guy is throwing out suggestions on how to beat Dean and you say that Repubs fear Kerry the most? You were just kidding right?