Independents favor Dean 2-1 in New Hampshire

[CMT]

The most interesting feature of the new Franklin Pierce College poll showing Howard Dean leading in NH is that he is doing better among Independents than among Democrats.

Overall, Dean leads 33-19 over Sen. Kerry with 7% for Gen. Clark or by 14-points overall.

Among Democrats the Dean lead is cut to 12-points: 32-20 Dean over Kerry with 6% for Gen. Clark.

Among Independents, Dean leads 35-16 for Kerry, with Gen. Clark within range of Kerry with 12%.

The Independent vote in NH will be crucial because there are so many of them in the state. With Bush running unopposed it is probable that many more of them will vote in the Democratic primary. I also think this disputes that Dean Can't win. He has been showing more strength among independents in some polls than among Democrats--certainly in NH.

Other findings:

Men favor Dean by nearly 2-1, 33% for Dean to 17% for Kerry and 12% for Clark.

Women are more closely divided: 33% for Dean 21% for Kerry and only 3% for Clark. (4% of women favor John Edwards).

More women are undecided than men as well--33% to 22% of men.

Dean has a strong favorable/unfavorable rating of 74/13. Dean's unfavorable rating also grew at the lowest rate of any candidate--3%Kerry is not far behind with 66/10.
Wes Clark has a 39/18 fav/unfav rating with 30% undecided.

**John Edwards had a big increase in his favorable rating going up 21% since July. Edwards now is 45-16 favorable/unfavorable.

http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_03_1021.pdf

[helleborient]

1. These are voters we need to turn for the general election win...

Independents and men

While not taking any of the historically supportive constituencies for granted.

[unfrigginreal]

2. Dean seems to have overcome the early gender gap that he had...

in some polls. Clark has got to be a little concerned about the gender gap that's showing up for him in this poll.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. and how many of them plan on voting for Bush in November?

Yep, I just had to ask.

[LuminousX]

4. Unnecessary flamebait (n/t)

.

[CMT]

6. Dean just can't win with some people

who say he is sure to lose to Bush and then when some evidence comes forward that he is competitive with Independents in a state then the implication is that they are only for him so that he can be the democratic nominee so Bush can clobber him. It's a vicious cycle.

[helleborient]

8. I guess we just don't know...

Cause they didn't ask that...and they don't ask that of supporters of the other candidates either...so we just don't know. And no reason to speculate either.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. You say there's no reason to speculate?

Well if you say so then I won't then.

[Larkspur]

5. I'll be up in New Hampshire helping to raise Dean's Favorable

rating among women next month.

Go Dean!

[helleborient]

7. Go Larkspur!

I'll be sending good vibes when I'm in Iowa!