More good news for Kerry in Iowa

[cindyw]

WH '04 Dem Caucus Matchup
(margin of error +/- 4.4%)

Dean 24%
Kerry 21%
Gephardt 21%
Edwards 10%
Clark 5%
Lieberman 5%
Kucinich 3%
Braun 1%
Sharpton -
A Mellman Group (D) poll; conducted 10/13 for Sen. John Kerry (D-MA); surveyed 500 likely 1/19 IA caucus-goers; margin of error +/- 4.4% (release, 10/23). The polling memo notes that Kerry boasts "an extremely positive" 69% favorable vs. 12% unfavorable rating -- "yielding the highest favorable-unfavorable ratio in the field."

The Mellman Group notes that their poll, "unlike most public polls, drew its sample from a list of voters who have a history of participation in Iowa Democratic primaries and caucuses. Most public polls rely on simple and hugely inflated self reports of likely caucus participation" (release, 10/23).

http://www.johnkerry.com/news/releases/pr_2003_1023.html

[Dagaz]

1. Looks like Kerry is starting to take the gloves off

I saw where he's now campaigning at work places and letting people know that Dean and Gephart bith want to take away the child tax credit.

[HFishbine]

7. The Child Tax Credit is Unfair

Why should upper-income parents get a special tax credit just because they have kids? Having kids generates a cost to society (education, healthcare, etc) and people who are not parents end up paying a greater share because they don't have kids.

As a method of helping to keep families out of poverty, it's fine. But as a gift to families making 60,000/year it's unfair.

[SahaleArm]

11. Yeah.

A family of four making $60k/year is upper-income? Go ahead and run on that platform.

[cindyw]

13. I make more than that as a family of four

and if you take my child tax credit away we will go broke. $60,000 does not go far these days. Please don't pit poor against slightly less poor.

[HFishbine]

18. Okay, okay, oaky

What do I know? You tell me? $70k, $80k, $90k? All I know is that I too could use an extra $600 a year. I work just as hard as anybody and, as a single person, I'm not repsonsible for creating an additional cost for society.

I don't know where the line should be drawn, I'll defer to those who know better. All I know is that it's pretty damn unfair that I have $150 in my savings account while some people are getting a $600 or more tax break so that they can buy a new DVD player while I pay a greater share of their children's education than they do.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

21. 'an additional cost for society'

Umm, children are more than 'an additional cost for society' children are the future of our society... do you believe you shouldn't have to pay for public education because you have no children? ... are you saying you are philosophically opposed to the Earned Income Credit, that you don't believe the government should help ease the cost of raising children for those who are not rich?

[HFishbine]

23. Careful now

Please don't put words in my mouth or misconstrue my statements.

I DID NOT say I shouldn't have to pay for public education. I believe I should, for the very reason you mention -- that children are more than an additional cost to society.. What I DO THINK though, is that I should not have to pay a greater share than parents. Even an equal share would be more palatable.

I most certainly DID NOT say that the government shouldn't ease the cost of raising children for those who are not rich. What I DO THINK though, is that those who are perfectly capable of paying for the cost of raising a child should not receive a government hand out, especially when you consider that such actions simply shifts a greater burden of society's cost for children to those who don't have any.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

24. Well you don't pay a greater share than their parents. That's just silly

I mean it is really, really out there. How much do you think it costs to raise children? You actually believe that because of the EIC you are paying a larger share of raising children than their parents? :eyes:

And I did not accuse you of saying anything or put any words in your mouth - I ASKED if that was what you meant.

[HFishbine]

19. What about a family of two

making $60k?

[SahaleArm]

28. Add up the bills.

It ain't much: taxes, mortgage, car-payments, insurance (health+car), utilities. Utilities is where things are getting out of hand: Electric, Gas, Phone, Cell-Phones, Internet, Water+Sewer, Garbage.

[Dagaz]

12. It sells politically though

Most people are willing to support education and healthcare even if they don't have kids.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Kerry's favorable/unfavorable should remain high

He is an outstanding candidate and great person, and with Graham's departure he has the best and longest resume. (Unless you like 4 stars..ha ha!)

[blm]

3. Interesting.

I'd be curious to see what the DNC's internal polls look like there. I have only heard a few reports, but none from Iowa.

[HFishbine]

4. Please

A poll paid for by the Kerry campaign.

I'd have a little more faith if they'd post the complete survey and methedology. Touting the "highest favorable-unfavorable ratio in the field" as the best thing the poll reports seems a little suspect. Who had the highest favorable rating? Who had the highest unfavorable rating? If the poll was so targeted, why the high MOE?

[DJcairo]

14. 4.4% for a state poll is a high MoE?

Hah!Zogby's latest from iowa had an MoE of 4.5%

Get your facts straight and vote for Kerry.

[DJcairo]

15. 4.4% for a state poll is a high MoE?

Hah!Zogby's latest from iowa had an MoE of 4.5%

Get your facts straight and vote for Kerry.

[HFishbine]

20. Okay, I heard you the first time

for a poll that was supposedly SO TARGETED was what I said.

[DJcairo]

25. It was about the sample they chose, not MoE

Geez, why speculate when you clearly know nothing about poll methodology. Hell, neither do I. But then again, I don't go crying about MoE everytime I see a poll I don't like.

[CMT]

5. Interesting

I always thought that Gep would be Dean's chief opponent in Iowa, but now Gep and Kerry are tied and Dean slightly ahead. Most recent Iowa poll had Gep taking a slight lead with Dean a solid second.

[unfrigginreal]

6. This poll underrepresents Dean's support

voters who have a history of participation in Iowa Democratic primaries and caucuses

Dean will be bring many new folks into the caucuses.

[HFishbine]

8. Excellent point!

:)

[CMT]

9. yet among this group Dean still leads

or statiscally tied with Gep and Kerry. I thought among this group with a history of attending caucuses that Gep would be leading given he is well known in the state.

[DrFunkenstein]

10. And Kerry Will Bring Many Old Folks To The Caucuses

Ready to blast "Newt-lite" out of the water.

(Notice the scare quotes? That's not me saying it!)

[Lady President]

16. Agreed

I agree that this poll may not completely reflect Dean's numbers, but it is a positive sign for Kerry vs. Gephardt, who was supposed to own Iowa.

[unfrigginreal]

17. No question about it...a great poll for Kerry considering everyone ...

has been calling it a Dean-Gep race. If Kerry can pull off a 1st or 2nd in Iowa, NH will be wide open.

[CMT]

22. It is a good poll

for Kerry and a not so bad one for Dean since among consistent caucus goers Dean is still leading when it would seem that Gep should be doing best among this group. However, it will be interesting to see if any independent polls will back up the results of this one.

[DJcairo]

This poll confirms early internal Edwards polling

which had Dean at 21% Kerry at 20% and Gep at 18%.

The bottom line: Kerry is doing better than expected but, if you take into account independent polling, the race is a toss up between Gep and Dean.

How silly it is that we sacrifice our democracy to a bunch of corn eaters.

[arcos]

26. a lot of Dean voters don't have a history of participation..

because it is the first they will participate in.

[polpilot]

27. Only the mathematically challenged should cosider this good news!!!!!!!!!

Dean '04...The New Democratic Leader of the NEW Democratic Party

[SahaleArm]

29. Is that like the old green party?

Dean's support is getting to be as much an exercise in hagiography as anything else.

[polpilot]

30. No.

.