Zogby Suffers from Personality Disorder

[DJcairo]

In his latest poll he labels Dean's 23 point lead a "juggernaut". However, on october 23, in a Knight Ridder article he was quoted s saying, ""Kerry has found his legs again."

I guess the poor guy is dillusional, or worse, has no idea what's in his polls or what motivations drive their methodology.

http://johnkerry.com/news/clips/news_2003_1023.html
www.zogby.com

[wtmusic]

1. Here come the attacks

When polls slam the guy they've donated money to, suddenly the polls are 'dillusional'

[Bertrand]

2. It's not an attack

although i disagree with calling him "dillusional", it's a legitimate question considering his poll conflicts with his comments on Kerry.

[blm]

4. Look at the poll dates, then the date of his latest comments.

Three weeks in politics can change alot. Not necessarily schizo, just recognizing that there has been a definite change in Kerry's favor.

[Bertrand]

8. There isnt any date from when Zogby made his comments

although the article is dated today and implies he made them very recently. If anyone can find the date of Zogbys comments, id appreciate it.

[Brotherjohn]

11. See my post below, and UpstateNYDem's (regarding dates)...

It is not necessary to know the exact date Zogby said Kerry regained his legs. What is known for sure was that he said it before his latest poll results were known, probably even to him. The poll was conducted from the 21st through yesterday (the date of the Knight-Ridder article), and the results were released only today. This newest Zogby poll has Dean opening up a 23pt lead over Kerry.

The Knight-Ridder article also mentions, in conjunction with Zogby's "legs" quote, the Zogby poll showing that Kerry had reduced Dean's lead to 10pts. So Zogby is almost certainly referring to his September poll (his latest one at the time he was quoted, in which the gap was 10pts). And he was certainly quoted BEFORE his October poll, which was published just today, along with the "juggernaut" quote.

[Bertrand]

14. You maybe right that Zogby could have been referring to his

September poll, but its still speculation. If you find a date for when Zogby made his comments id appeciate it. Thanks.

[Brotherjohn]

17. The article is pretty clear Zogby's referring to a poll of his w/ a 10pt..

...Dean lead over Kerry. That can only be the September Zogby poll (look at the numbers).

It is completely clear (we know) that he could not have been quoted after the results of his latest (and very next after the September one) poll were known. That poll was still being conducted yesterday, and the results were not released until today. The article he's quoted in was published yesterday, and the actual quote was likely the 22nd at the latest.

So, again, the specific date does not matter. What matters is that Zogby was quoted saying Kerry's campaign had gotten its legs back at some point between the release of his September poll and Oct. 22nd, and at ANY POINT IN THAT TIME PERIOD, his latest poll showed that Kerry had closed the lead to 10pts. He was quoted as saying that the Dean campaign was a "juggernaut" AFTER the next poll (the October poll, concluded yesterday and released today). This is entirely consistent, given that the new poll shows Dean re-opening up a 20pt-plus lead.

It may not be good for Kerry (in NH at least), but Zogby's quotes give an entirely realistic portrayal of his poll results (both September and October polls).

[paulk]

21. this seems a reasonable explanation...

The most recent poll combined with Zogby's remarks about Kerry "gaining legs" really threw me, but your timeline makes a lot of sense. Dean seems to be piking up a lot of steam in NH.

Next months polls should be the real kicker, with campaign ads starting to air. If Dean still holds a double digit lead a month from now, NH will be his.

[Malikshah]

10. Personality disorder is not an attack?

Please--wake up and smell the reality--

The thread's title is an attack in and of itself.

To say otherwise is to ignore the core reason for the thread and thus continue the baiting back and forth.

Discussing the problems w/ the Zogby Poll, problems with the candidates is part of the process--but to start a thread w/ an attack on someone's psychological being....

[Bertrand]

16. No, i agree with you

that the label he used isnt justified by the evidence he presented (and i already disagreed with him calling him dellusional which i thought implied that i disagreed with the way he presented it but i guess by specifying that word alone it left doubt), but the gist of the argument has merit in itself to be debated (although nobody has found a quote of Zogby Yet)

[DJcairo]

3. Go to toughenough.org and make a donation to help Zogby

He needs some meds and fast.

[wtmusic]

6. Go to JohnKerry.com and make a donation to him

He needs the money worse than Zogby

[UpstateNYDem]

5. Before you attack people

Maybe you should take the time to look at the dates. The poll was conducted from the 21st through the 23rd. The article was published on the 23rd, which means Zogby was most likely interviewed for it on the 22nd. Which means he gave that quote while the poll was still in the field.

Nice try though rook.

[CMT]

7. I suppose you need to find some way to

justify these poll numbers and this one is a doozy.

[Brotherjohn]

9. When Zogby says Kerry has "found his legs again", he's is likely ...

...referring to an earlier poll he conducted showing Kerry within 10 points of Dean in NH (September 2003, see your own link to his web page). The quote is also in an article with another poll conducted by David Paleologos, a political scientist at Suffolk University, showing Kerry within 6 points of Dean.

There is no telling when Zogby was quoted from, but the article implies it was after the September poll, but BEFORE the current (brand new) October 24th (today) poll showing Dean opening up a 23 point lead on Kerry in NH. Although the Knight-Ridder article is dated yesterday, it is obviously pulling from the last few days/weeks prior to Zogby's latest polling. In short, it is bad reporting and out of date. I'm not bashing Kerry. I like him. But of course, his campaign is going to only post news stories on their site which paint his campaign in a positive light (duh!).

In his latest press release (dated TODAY), Zogby uses the word "juggernaut" to describe the Dean campaign. This is consistent with the large lead his poll shows Dean opening up in New Hampshire relative to his last poll. There is nothing delusional or inconsistent about that. He knows exactly what his poll numbers say.

[unfrigginreal]

12. I doubt that even you believe the things that you write

From the article:

"Kerry has found his legs again," agreed independent pollster John Zogby, who at one point during the summer found Kerry trailing Dean by 21 percentage points before closing to 10.

You can tell by the remark that he was commenting on Kerry closing to within 10 in his Sept poll.

[flpoljunkie]

13. How can two polls conducted so close in time be so different?

Suffolk University poll of 10/17-19 has Dean with 25% and Kerry with 19%, with error rate of 4.9%, polling 400 likely Democratic voters.

Zogby poll has Dean leading 40% to 17% in a poll taken two days later, 10/21-23, of 500 likely Democratic voters, with error rate of 4.5%.

How can this be explained? It defies common sense.

Edited to add link re Suffolk University poll.

http://www.johnkerry.com/news/releases/pr_2003_1021a.html

[CMT]

15. there were also three other polls released this week

showing Dean with double-digit leads of 13-17 points all were published on this page. While not as big a lead as Zogby those along with this are pretty good evidence to me that Dean is in double digits in NH. One was for the Concord Monitor and another was for Franklin Pierce College, and another for University of NH.

[Brotherjohn]

18. Yes. The 3 polls you cite are in the middle, Zogby is high, & Suffolk...

...is low (as far as the Dean-Kerry spread).

Anyone who reads polls know that any one poll is only a snapshot, and an innaccurate one at that. One has to look at all polls to get the trend. Zogby and Suffolk may drastically differ as far as the Dean-Kerry spread (6 to 23%), but they are the high and the low points in an overall polling picture that generally shows Dean to have a 10-20% lead.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. anyone who thinks Dean will get 40% in NH is delusional

There is no way it is going to happen.

[Duder]

20. Yup, we can do better.

n/t

[NewYorkerfromMass]

22. You are setting yourself up

for a huge disappointment if you really believe that.

[w4rma]

27. Nope, *you* are setting yourself up

for a huge disappointment if you really can't believe that.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

28. O.K. You seem seriously sure of yourself

so I'll just walk... away.... slowly.......

[SahaleArm]

24. Still 3 Months left.

There's still 3 months before the NH primary so I'd take this and other polls with a grain of salt. So far I think it's fair to extrapolate that Dean has a double-digit lead in NH with Kerry, Clark, and Edwards trailing. Something about the Zogby poll that struck me as odd was how closely Clark and Edwards matched up in NH compared to other polls, something I would attribute to name recognition. It will be interesting to see which of the two gets the most traction. If either one can catch up and surpass Kerry then that will be Dean's biggest challenge.

[killbotfactory]

23. Zogby is a poopiehead!

"Kerry has found his legs again"

I guess Kerry slipped on a banana.

[Zynx]

25. Some excuse.

Can't you just admit that John Kerry is polling like crap? All but one poll has confirmed this.

I once, way back, supported Kerry, but his personality turned me off and then I switched to Dean, but I support Clark because I think he has the best chance of winning the election. However, I am happy with either Dean or Clark so I see this as positive even though Clark isn't doing so well.

[w4rma]

26. WTF? A poll goes against Kerry and the pollster is "dillusional"?

Speaking of dillusional, maybe you should be more consistant in your crtiticism? Take your blinders off, please.