Dean Overtakes Clark As Favorite For Democratic Presidential Nomination

[Vis Numar]

Boom, the second shoe falls (NH's 40% polling being the first for Dean).

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/031025/nysa015_1.html

Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, Dean has overtaken Clark as favorite for the party's presidential nomination for the first time since Clark entered the race, with 15 percent. Close behind, 12 percent favor Clark, while Kerry, Gephardt and the Rev. Al Sharpton are tied at eight percent each.

[TSIAS]

1. What I find significant

If I'm reading these results correctly, is the matchups with Bush (All currently are trailing).

Dean definitely compares about equally with Clark, Kerry, etc.

Dean/49-43
Clark/49-43
Kerry/50-42
Lieberman/50-43
Gephardt/52-41

[Vis Numar]

2. Right

The Kerry and Clark folks have all been pointing to Dean's low match-up numbers against Bush as a sign of his weakness, when in truth, it was just a sign of his low name ID. Dean just keeps on climbing up.

[boxster]

5. Low name ID? Oh, please.

He's been on the cover of nearly every major news magazine, and he's been on TV, especially cable news channels, for months.

I don't get how Dean supporters can keep saying that, on one hand, he has the best organization and is getting the word out better than anyone while, on the other hand, he has poor name recognition.

These numbers aren't drastically different from previous ones. I'm glad his head-to-head numbers vs. Bush are up there with the others, but considering the MOE, they haven't changed that much.

[KittyWampus]

22. In The PA Focus Group More People Knew Dean Than Clark

The focus group shown on cspan...

And Dean has outspent Clark by a factor of about 10 in advertising...

Dean has also been in the running since winter and Clark only a month....

[caledesi]

3. I like this news bec I can still hope for a Dean/Clark ticket. n/t

[Derrick Lang]

4. does..

Does anyone else here suffer from thepollsareinacurate CYN-DROME?
come on al sharpton at 8 that alone is a belie

[DJcairo]

6. Well, here's a Zogby poll that shows Dean doing the worst

The Zogby America telephone poll of 921 likely voters chosen at random was conducted October 15 - 18, and has a margin of error of +/-3.3%. Error margins are higher in sub-groups.

Overall opinion of Bush slipped slightly from September Zogby numbers. Nearly six in ten (56%) have a favorable opinion and 42% an unfavorable opinion now, compared to 58% favorable and 41% unfavorable in September 22 - 24 polling.

The president would outpoll any of the current leading Democratic contenders if the election were held today. He would earn 46% of the vote against retired General Wesley Clark’s 37%; would beat former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean, 47% - 39%; would poll 45% against Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s 41%; would win over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt 47% - 38%, and would beat Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, 46% - 38%.

Much lower MoE, too.
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=747

[boxster]

8. Actually, according to your numbers, Clark is 9% behind, Dean is 8%.

Gephardt is also 9% behind.

Kerry is doing the best in that poll vs. Bush and doing much better than the rest of the Dems. Interesting.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

18. No, it shows them all doing well

Head to head against Bush in this poll (in order):

Kerry -4 (awesome!)
Dean -8
Clark -9
Lieberman -8
Gephardt -9


Looks great for all of these guys. MOE is 3.3, which makes it potenially even closer.

Not sure what you're talking about.

[CMT]

19. Do you ever read what you print?

or are you in such a rush to knock Dean that you ignore what the content says. Dean is not doing worse in Zogby. Kerry is doing best -4% while Dean is -8% and Clark and Gep is -9. Yet on your headline you write, "Here is a poll which showing Dean is doing the worse." Maybe you think people won't read beyond the headline?

[dsc]

20. Would that be the same Zogby you called delusional?

eom

[Duder]

7. Interesting...

'Almost half (44 percent) say the Democratic party's next presidential candidate should be someone who has been a strong critic of the war and Bush's Iraq policy; 32 percent say it doesn't make much difference either way.'

[tsipple]

9. National Polls = Interesting But Not Predictive

We do not have a national primary system, I would remind everyone. Iowa, New Hampshire, and a (very) few other states will almost certainly decide the nominee.

I've said that regardless of where my favorite candidate has ranked, so I won't stop now.

I am wondering how many more polls we need to bury the "electability" drone. (That bit really is getting tired, isn't it? I'm just waiting for Al Sharpton to say he's the most electable -- and no one could disprove him.)

[TSIAS]

10. I agree

National polls aren't that accurate of a predictor. If it gives supporters of a certain candidate a reason to be optimistic, than I'm all for it.

[JackSwift]

11. Upwards of 40 percent will vote anyone but Bush

Very interesting.

[FrenchieCat]

12. Interesting......

Looks like when the Dean Fans and Karl Rove get together,
Dean may win the primary.....and then will certainly lose to Bush....

Demographics are still being ignored on this board...and that is dangerous in any election playbook.
Dean supporters are so happy to be back in the lead, that it appears that winning the primary has become more important than winning the general election.....
When you review the voting patterns of the south and the military, Dean's chances of winning these areas are slim to none
.....it really is just that simple.
I am not willing to give Bush the Presidency for my love of Dean! Sorry!

Here an poll from the Armytimes:http://www.armytimes.com/static.php?f=view.php
If you were going to vote for president right now, which candidate would you support:
Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun 0.28 % (12)
Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.) 39.21 % (1,704)
Gov. Howard Dean 7.20 % (313)
Sen. John Edwards 0.35 % (15)
Rep. Dick Gephardt 2.46 % (107)
Sen. John Kerry 16.64 % (723)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich 0.23 % (10)
Sen. Joe Lieberman 0.83 % (36)
Rev. Al Sharpton 1.52 % (66)
President George W. Bush 31.29 % (1,360)
Total votes: 4346

[FrenchieCat]

13. The New York Post very favorable article on Dean....mmm......mmm

Wonder why New York post is doing such a bang up job at promoting Dean??????
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/41887.htm
Maybe somebody would like to give us an answer:

[scipan]

14. You forgot to mention that's on online poll

and changing as we speak.

[FrenchieCat]

15. Not changing by much...same poll, 2 hours later.....

If you were going to vote for president right now, which candidate would you support:

Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun 0.27 % (12)
Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.) 38.91 % (1,716)
Gov. Howard Dean 7.19 % (317)
Sen. John Edwards 0.39 % (17)
Rep. Dick Gephardt 2.45 % (108)
Sen. John Kerry 16.39 % (723)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich 0.23 % (10)
Sen. Joe Lieberman 0.84 % (37)
Rev. Al Sharpton 1.52 % (67)
President George W. Bush 31.81 % (1,403)
Total votes: 4410

[scipan]

17. give it up...

it's an ONLINE POLL.
:spank:

[unfrigginreal]

16. Hmmm...then how do you explain this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=68389

[Vis Numar]

21. Anyone have the trendline for Dean in this polling?

Be interesting to see.