UNDER THE RADAR: Democrats can take this open seat from the GOP.

[TakebackAmerica]

California 3rd Congressional district congressman Dou Ose is retiring. This is under the radar. Which means we can shock the GOP here. The district was democratic for more than 30 years before it lected Ose in 1988. Dems have a strong canidate in Darrell Steinberg.

[mndemocrat_29]

1. Great

It's not overtly GOP. In 2000, it went 55 percent Bush, 45 percent Nader/Gore.

[mndemocrat_29]

2. There's some talk that Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante would try for this seat

n/t

[David__77]

11. He better the hell not...

1. He'd lose big time.
2. He must not surrender his current post.

[jiacinto]

3. In its old form, yes, but not in its new form

The old third is above. In its old incarnation it included Yolo County, which was was liberal and parts of Sacramento. That is what made it a swing seat.

The new map of CA appears here:







In its current form it has around 155K Republicans and around 135K Democrats. The seat went for Bush 54-40%.

Ose's seat is clearly Republican leaning now. It extends into interior counties that are heavily Republican on the other side of the Sierra Nevadas.

I don't see this seat being competetive.

[mndemocrat_29]

4. It won't be easy

But we should at least target it. All of the following Democratic congressmen represent districts that went for Bush:

Ralph M. Hall (70.2 percent)
Charlie Stenholm (72.3 percent)
Max Sandlin (64.1 percent)
Jim Turner (62.9 percent)
Chet Edwards (67.5 percent)
Earl Pomeroy (61 percent)
Jim Matheson (62.8 percent)
Ken Lucas (61.2 percent)

[jiacinto]

5. All of the TX seats are gone

The others on that list should stay ours.

[last_texas_dem]

8. TX-2 is mine

I'm actually still a bit surprised my district went that much for * but, as I suppose is indicated by our having a Democratic US Rep, I don't think the people around here are Re:puke:s as much as were simply pro-*, be it for "state pride" reasons or whatever...

It's disappointing we may lose Blue Dog Jim Turner to some Delay clone, but I've still got my fingers crossed that the Re:puke: gerrymandering plan won't hold up in the courts.

Turner has mentioned he may possibly run for Governor or Senator if the plan does end up surviving and he gets shafted out of a chance to retain his Congressional seat. He's moderate enough he could possibly have a chance in TX but I think winning statewide offices is going to remain an uphill battle for Dems here. Goodhair isn't particularly popular, though, and I'd love to see him knocked out should he run for re-election...

[NewJerseyDem]

6. Where did you get that last map?

I was just wondering for future reference about congressional districts.

[jiacinto]

7. www.ncec.org is one

the other is nationalatlas.gov

[David__77]

9. I live in this seat. I am 99% sure the national party won't target it.

We could have and should have retained this seat in 1998 when Ose first ran after Vic Fazio retired. But now I don't think so, for two reasons:

- The district is trending Republican, though not overwhelmingly.
- Redistricting removed the city of Davis, a progressive stronghold, and added parts of Placer County, a rightist stronghold.

Under extraordinary conditions, with a very, very well-funded candidate in a very Democratic year against an extreme-right candidate, we could win. But I don't think this will happen. That said, I will be working for the Democratic candidate for this district.

The Republicans are trying to claim that "gerrymandering" has put them at a disadvantage here. That's not true. There are seats we could have won that we now cannot due to the map that was implemented. It was a bad map, based on electing people like Gary Condit's friend Rusty Areias to the state senate: he lost anyway. Instead, Sacramento could have more Democrats than we have. Instead, all the Democrats are packed into one congressional, assembly and senate district.

[David__77]

10. correction...

I guess it doesn't extend into Placer. But Placer county EXTREME right-fascist Sen. Rico Oller is running for this district. So might 1998 loser Dan Lungren.

[jiacinto]

12. The whole Condit scandal hurt us

Had that not happened we could have had a better map.