Can Gephardt Unseat Dean?

[LuminousX]

Reference Link - Daily Tar Heel

"Gephardt is now coming up in the polls because Dean is coming down to earth," he said.

"He has tremendous organization and has a lot of grassroots support. Although he does not have as charismatic a push as, say Dean. He is a rational figure who is unlikely to say something stupid."

Basham said he wouldn't be surprised if Gephardt became be the Democratic nominee should he place first in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary.

This could be bad news for President George W. Bush, as Gephardt has been labeled by the GOP as the candidate they would least like to go head-to-head with because of his Midwestern roots.

This is really an article about Gephardt and Edwards and how they may have a last minute surge in the polls. It is an interesting analysis, though I believe it is flawed. A lot is predicated on several 'if's'.

Fundamentally, I think people are tired of Gephardt and that is before they actually listened to him. He seems to have been on the scene forever.

[TSIAS]

1. Gephardt is viable

I wouldn't be surprised if he were to win.

I read the snips you provided, and don't see how Gephardt could win Iowa AND New Hampshire. Iowa is a tossup, but I don't see him winning NH.

[LuminousX]

11. He is viable

but he is a long shot.

I personally think that in modern politics, you get only one shot at the Presidency. G.H.W. Bush got lucky that Reagan pulled him in as VP, otherwise there'd be no way he could have gotten elected after Reagan.

[Closer]

12. Keep in mind

this is from a COLLEGE newspaper, written from a COLLEGE student.

Can Gephardt catch Dean? Never.

[LuminousX]

14. I do realize that

The point is more about the 'danger' in ignoring Gephardt. His attacks against Dean have given people a new look at him. Whether they like what they see is a different story, only we are still in the gray area before the primaries and anything can happen.

[Cha]

2. If people like their candidates

schoomzing in the rose garden with bush then gephardt is their
man.

I have personally found him repugnant ever since that scene.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Gephardt is a has-been washed up * ass-kisser

Simply said. The answer is NO.

Hawkeye-X

[polpilot]

25. Sold out, Rose Garden Photo-opt, Generation Gone Gep!!!!!!!!!!!

Finishing his career by maligning the next Democratic President of The United States!

Dean '04...

[robbedvoter]

4. Media crowned Gephardt as the designated loser to bush (sorry, Joe!)

Personally, I'd have a harder time voting for him than for Lieberman (see his last 2 votes). Nice thing is - it'll never happen! (Unless Diebold f*s with our primaries too)

[ThorsteinVeblen]

5. I will vote for Bush before Gephardt

Because if the goddamn Democratic Party nominates Gephardt, it deserves to be destroyed.

I will dedicate my life to bringing down the Democratic Party if Gephardt is the nominee.

[demnan]

6. No

[Speck Tater]

7. I think Dean will win the White House, but

the fact is, anything could happen. Who knows, Edwards might even win the nomination. Stranger things have happened.

But if I were to put real money on a wager I'd say in a few years we'll be here discussing the relative successes and failures of the Dean administration.

[HFishbine]

8. It's always hard for me

to take someone seriously when they poison their ideas with factually incorrect information.

"Gephardt is now coming up in the polls because Dean is coming down to earth."

Gephardt has been in a steady decline since June nationally, while Dean has continued to climb:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

It's the same story in New Hampshire:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=750

and a tie in Iowa:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=748

As for "He wouldn't be surprised if Gephardt became be the Democratic nominee should he place first in the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary."

There's nothing like stating the obvious. Of course, this could be said about any candidate. I wouldn't be surprised if Lyndon LaRouche became the Democraic nominee should he place first in Iowa and New Hampshire.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. "a rational figure who is unlikely to say something stupid"

True, that puts him ahead of Dean right off the bat, but I can't think of any recent Reps. who have jumped right into the Oval Office.
John Kerry OTOH....

[PAMod]

18. The last US Representative elected President was James Garfield...

1n 1880, and even he was U.S. Senator-elect when elected President.

[LuminousX]

23. And assassinated.

Not exactly a good role model for Kucinich. Sorry, stole that from the Daily Show.

[JohnKleeb]

29. Theres never been a guy named Howard elected

:D that means it cant happen :D, lol I am messing around and yes I know its harder for him.

[Jim Sagle]

10. It's a crockobullshit.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

27. New catchphrase?

lol

[ScreamingMeemie]

13. It is a telling thing that here in Michigan the unions have yet

to throw their weight behind one candidate. It should be an interesting couple of months. Usually the "informational" fliers are stacked up on the counter by now.

[BrewCrew]

16. the G-hardt is alright

We all have our issues and I understand that. For a lot of folks here it is the war and well that is your right. I don't agree with him on it, but do respect him for being consistent and also supporting the 87 Billion for the troops. I for one just want to say I'm a huge fan of Congressman Gephardt's and have been for years. Go ahead and flame me. Call me a weak Democrat or whatnot. But Dick Gephardt has fought crazy Republicans like Newt Gingrich, Tom Delay, and Dick Armey tooth and nail everyday on the house floor through the 1990's and today. He's championed and fought hard against any cuts to great social programs. More importantly, in my honest opinion, he's also led the way against these unfair trade agreements that have been killing the industrial region of our nation. He's been right on trade since Day 1 and respect him for that. I'm going to give him some credit. He's a progressive and I respect that

Finally, I also want to say I think the guy would be a great nominee. He's got that background which the regular working family in middle america can appreciate, unions will do amazing turnout efforts for him in the general (as they would most of our candidates, but they do feel a special kinship to Dick), respected black leaders like Clyburn will work hard for him, he's from a swing state, and he has expereince. I think in the end people want that. I mean seriously. Bush has wrecked this place. We need to replace him and Gephardt would be a great choice. So go ahead and hate the guy and me for liking him, but hey. It's just my opinion.

[DemDogs]

19. Gephardt is a great guy with a loyal organization

He could win Iowa, which an organization state with a lot of older caucus goers who will respond negatively to Dean's various positions on social security age and medicare. They have a nose for these waffles and they are not going to like it especially since Dean has sold himself as a straight shooter.
Some say Gephardt has to win Iowa. Maybe he does, but not for the same reason. The problem for him is that unless he gets that Iowa bounce, he is collapsing in New Hampshire. Every poll there shows him lower and lower. And it is hard to see how he survives losing in New Hampshire when it goes south and west.

[LuminousX]

20. Loyalty

Recent polls have him slightly ahead in Iowa, at least according to this article (http://www.prospect.org/webfeatures/2003/10/franke-ruta-g-10-29.html).

His loyal organization is about the only reason he is in this race.

[paulk]

15. Gephardt could be V.P.

Forced on the ticket the way Quayle was forced on Bush 1.

[LuminousX]

17. Yikes, there's a scary thought

But not outside of the realm of the possible. For Kerry or Dean, Gephardt offers some appeal to areas they don't. It would also circumvent the boring though effective, Southern strategy.

[Larkspur]

21. If Gephardt wins Iowa, he'll be broke financially and if Dean takes 2nd

in Iowa, he'll still blow out Gephardt in New Hampshire. I don't see Gephardt winning, if he does, by a large margin.

Gephardt spent more in the 3rd quarter than he took in. He ran a deficit, despite all his union endorsements. He'll shoot the wad to win Iowa because HE HAS TO WIN Iowa. Dean doesn't have to win Iowa, just finish 2nd at worst. If Gep loses Iowa, he's finished, and if he wins Iowa, he won't have enough money to compete in the other big races. Gep's campaign is a kamikazee campaign.

The thing to remember is that Dean has a large pool of donors to tap into to refuel his campaign war chest. Gephardt has been consistantly having trouble raising funds.

[LuminousX]

22. I, too, see Gephardt having money issues

because no one can really show a ROI on the money he has already spent. Dean runs one ad in Texas and we hear about it for months afterwards, heck, I'm still talking about it.

[BrewCrew]

24. money

I thought the FEC required a spending cap in each state? So Gep can't blow all his money in IA unless he rejects the match? Which he wont do. I think as long as candidates have around 5-10 mill in the bank at the end of the year, they can be financially competive in each state through Feb 3rd. By taht I mean spend the limit in each of those states. For Gep, I think the formula is this:

1) Win IA and hopes that leads to some money

2) Be competive in NH, but its not too big given that Dean, Kerry, Liebs, and now Clark all have expectations there.

3) On Feb 3rd win another state besides MO. Clyburn and the Conference of Black Mayors endorsement should help in SC. Maybe OK? Its close to Missouri?

4) Win Michigan on Feb 7th. It's a industrial and union state.

Just lloking at the calendar and map. A lot needs to break the guys way, but he has received a lot of positive attention lately. he's been around too long to discount this quick.

[DemDogs]

26. Looking better for Gep

Des Moines Register poll today has him up by 7 I think in Iowa.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. 3 candidates can win this, imo.

Dean, Clark or Edwards.

Geppy has zero, I repeat, zero chance.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

30. Ask this question again on Wednesday

after Dean gets the SEIU and AFSCME endorsements and a ton of positive publicity for it. This will cement Dean as the front runner, IMO, and Gep will spend a lot of time answering questions about why he didn't get these union endorsements himself and how he feels about Dean getting them. He can't very well respond that the union members or leaders are misguided, so what's he to do? He can't hardly respond at all without sounding bitter.

I heard that one of the SEIU locals in IA is led by a Gep supporter, and he is going to have a fit when Dean gets the endorsement and he has to pledge resources to helping Dean there.

These endorsements certainly don't guarantee Dean a victory in IA or NH or the nomination for that matter, but they are another piece in the puzzle.

[Cocoa]

31. he answered it this morning without sounding bitter

he said he never expected to get all the unions, that would be impossible, but he's gotten a lot more than anyone else, and he's getting more soon.

Then he said his dad was a milk truck driver. :-)

[RevolutionStartsNow]

33. LOL...

Has the United Organization of Milk Truck Drivers endorsed anyone yet?

[JohnKleeb]

34. Its a subdivision of the teamsters I would think

:D I am gonna ask Geppie if he knows where I can find milk.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

35. You mean "Got Milk?"

There's an ad slogan there somewhere...

[JohnKleeb]

36. No I want Gephardt to tell me where I can get good milk

I am a milkholic, I drink it with pretty much everything, snacks, dessert, dinner, everything. I just joshing, Gephardt has disappointed me but I do like what he does for labor.

[Egnever]

32. Certainly a hopefull article

but pretty unrealistic.

Ghep could possibly pull off Iowa because he is working full time there but because of this he has no chance at pulling off New hampshire also. Dean and kerry are both heavily campaigning NH while ghep is basically ignoring it. He would have to pull a kid out of a burning building or something live on NH TV to overcome the disadvantage he is under there right now.

Also dont forget the recent Dean meetups generated something like 20k letters that should hit Iowa any day now. These letters will have an impact. I predict a surge in the polls for Dean this week in Iowa, Add the effect of the joint anouncement of the two labor unions and I would be willing to bet dean leads Iowa withing two weeks.

The stars would certainly all have to align for ghep to pull the nomination out IMHO even then I dont think it could hapen.

The race is getting very interesting though what with Edwards sharpton lieberman and clark all batling for SC while dean seems to be taking on a two front battle mostly with kerry in NH and Ghep in Iowa.

It is getting very exciting I cant wait to see how it all pans out.

[whirlygigspin]

37. Gephardt

didn't he invent the internet?

--If Geppy gets it, he'll be Gored faster than you can say:
I'm watching paint dry, how exiting.