Five Possible Special Elections

[mndemocrat_29]

With Democrats strapped for House seats, we need to focus on every possible pickup we can manage in order to take back the House.

Here's an article about five possible special elections:

http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_46/news/3404-1.html

The five seats that they list are:

Kentucky-6
Rep. Ernie Fletcher is running for governor, and is leading in the polls. Should he win, this seat could be taken by Democrats. The district was held by Scotty Baesler (a Democrat) before Fletcher, so this isn't impossible territory. State Sen. Ernesto Scorsone, a candidate in 1998, looks like our best shot right now, unless Treasurer Jonathan Miller runs (though he looks more likely for a Senate run). However, the ideal situation here would be to have Fletcher lose, and decide not to run for reelection in 2004, therefore leaving Gov. Chandler, possibly Rep. Scorsone, and what the heck, Sen. Jonathan Miller.

Louisiana-3
Rep. Billy Tauzin may retire to become head of the Motion Pictures Association of America. If this were to happen, Republicans are already touting failed gubernatorial candidate State Rep. Hunt Downer, while Democrats have several key possibilities including State Sen. Reggie Dupre and State Rep. Gary Smith. This is a prime pickup opportunity, as this is the second most Democratic district in Louisiana.

Louisiana-7
If Kathleen Blanco is elected governor, rumors on capital hill are that Sen. John Breaux will retire to make way for Rep. Chris John to be appointed senator. John would then have the advantage of incumbency going into the 2004 race. The most prominent Democrat now is State Rep. Gil Pinac, who would have both Breaux's and John's support. Republicans most likely candidate would be State Sen. Mike Michot. This district went 55 percent for Bush in 2000, but Louisiana usually will pick a moderate Democrat over a Republican, so Pinac would probably be favored. Also, if Blanco is elected governor, that will show four big Democratic victories in two years (Blanco's, along with Sen. Landrieu's, Rep. Alexander's, and the state officer's).

South Dakota-AL
Should Rep. Bill Janklow resign before his term ends, Gov. Rounds would be able to declare a special election. For. Rep. John Thune would be the leading candidate in this race, but he seems more prone to running against Sen. Daschle in 2004. Therefore, 2002 nominee Stephanie Herseth will go in as the frontrunner. Many Republicans have been touted as possible candidates, including For. Sen. Larry Pressler, but Herseth would likely best any of them.

California-3
Rep. Doug Ose could be tapped to be state Agriculture secretary by Gov. Arnold, which could leave an open seat. Though it tilts Repuke, this seat could go to the Democrats, especially with a strong campaign.

[trotsky]

1. Breaux

I can only imagine the furor if Breaux retires before his term is up so that a Democratic governor can appoint a replacement. Never mind that a Republican trio could pull this off with righteous indignation should anyone question the political motives - because this would involve Democrats, it would be the political crime of the decade.

[mndemocrat_29]

2. I actually doubt that Breaux will retire early

This is the one I thought least likely to occur of these five special elections. I think that Breaux will probably retire, endorse Rep. John, and help him run statewide. This will help Democrats immensely. First, it will help vulnerable Rep. Alexander win reelection. Second, it will help Pinac hold John's seat. Third, it should help Democrats win the state (I know certain people have written off the South, but I think that we should keep it in mind, especially Arkansas and Louisiana). And fourth, should Tauzin retire and we win that special election, we would have another Democrat that could solidify their incumbency status.

[jiacinto]

3. SD-AL

If Janklow vacates his seat then I see Thune running for it and winning it without a problem. Faced with the choice of a bruising campaign against Daschle and an easy victory for a House seat, I think Thune takes the latter.

[goobergunch]

4. KY-6 would be interesting

It's Repuke-leaning, but if we captured it it would be a very positive sign for 2004.

[dusty64]

5. Interesting, we will

have to keep an eye on these.