GOP Eyeing Dayton's Seat

[mndemocrat_29]

Here's the link:

http://www.twincities.com/mld/pioneerpress/news/local/7111301.htm

I don't think that Dayton should be in too much trouble in 2006. The reason that Rep. Minge lost to Kennedy in 2000 was that Minge didn't really run a campaign, which was a mistake in a district as divided as the then MN-2. Dayton will know that this could get close, so he'll be more likely to campaign harder. Additionally, Kennedy isn't a very good campaigner.

If Kennedy vacates his seat, however, this could be an excellent pickup opportunity for us as Democrats. The article lists Grams and Kiffmeyer as possible Repukes. Kiffmeyer would be difficult to beat (she's fairly popular in Minnesota), but she seems more likely to want a Senate run or possibly a future gubernatorial race, rather than a House race. Grams was severely scarred by his 2000 loss, and would be a damaged candidate. Janet Robert would probably run in 2006, and would be a formidable candidate for the Democrats.

[Wickerman]

1. Good analysis

I knew they would target Dayton - watch him to start getting more negative press. The only way he would get attention in Rochester media would be to kill someone while Norm gets + attention for waffling on ANWR. Kiffmeyerwould eb tough - I don't know anything about Roberts? Haven't lived in MN for very long.

[trotsky]

3. Janet Robert(s?)

Not sure on her last name - she ran against Kennedy and probably would have beaten him, but her campaign went WAY negative and caused a voter backlash.

(I felt it was just factual - she pointed out Kennedy's shady business dealings. But I think she made one or two minor errors in her accusations, and of course that invalidated the 99% that was accurate, in the minds of the voters.)

[mndemocrat_29]

5. Her campaign did go far too negative

Minnesotans don't like candidates that go negative (I know that all states say they don't want negative campaigns, but unlike in other states, they aren't nearly as effective here).

However, Robert has started to build up more support since she was elected. She's started a new campaign to make inroads with moderate Democrats. I think that, should she succeed, she'll try and take on the 2006 House race. She'd already have a head start as a former candidate.

[trotsky]

2. I see Dayton as being very vulnerable.

He's a great senator but poor speaker. Doesn't exactly ooze charisma either. To be honest, the #1 reason he won in 2000 was because of Rod Grams' son and his problems. We can be "fortunate" that Coleman and Pawlenty won in '02 since they probably would have been the biggest challenge. Sviggum? Not even popular in his own party. Kiffmeyer, maybe, but not if her efforts to suppress voter registration are made public. Kennedy is a pure horse's ass and a statewide race would bear that out.

I sure hope Dayton wins again, but it'll be a tough race. Thankfully Mark has another three years to prepare.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

4. Dayton needs to step up his visibility

His poor speaking skills are a problem. Back in the 1980s when he ran against Dave Durenbeger, his mannerisms made him look like an upstart kid challenging the serene older man.

Now that Dayton has gray hairs of his own, he no longer comes off like a kid, but he needs to work more on presenting himself in a way that is appealing yet authentic. He also needs to blow his own horn more. He does a lot of good behind the scenes stuff for constituents, and that needs to come out more.

[mndemocrat_29]

6. Dayton needs to start getting some press by speaking up

Minnesota likes politicians who speak their mind and have strong opinions.

[mndemocrat_29]

7. Possible Challengers

Right now, it seems as if Kennedy is being annointed as the frontrunner. He is not a top tier candidate, which will come out in a statewide race. Other challengers who might come up:

Mary Kiffmeyer-Secretary of State, who said recently that she might want to try for higher office someday. Her biggest problem is that she's too quiet. Also, Minnesotans haven't often promoted their Secs. of State to higher office (Joan Growe ran in 1984, but lost to Sen. Boschwitz).

Pat Awada-She's said she won't run in 2006. She'll be a top target in 2006, as she's an archconservative far to the right of Minnesotans. She's already got all educators against her.

Carol Molnau-Can't win a statwide race by herself. She's far, far too conservative.

Jim Ramstad or Gil Gutknecht-Both would be much tougher than Kennedy, but I doubt either will run. If either of them run, their House seats would be fairly easy pickups. Republicans gerrymandered the state in 2000 so that they could try and have five seats, but they made Kennedy's, Ramstad's, and Gutknecht's districts all fairly moderate, so whenever they vacate their seats, we should be able to pick them up.

[trotsky]

8. Are you sure about Ramstad's seat?

It sure seems like he still has one hell of a conservative district.

[mndemocrat_29]

10. Ramstad's district

Went 49.9 percent for Bush, 50.1 for Gore/Nader in 2000. It is the most marginal district in Minnesota.

[trotsky]

11. Well I'll be

I lived in it for a couple of elections, and the poor Democrat going up against Ramstad got creamed like the sacrifical lamb the Repukes put up against Sabo every other year. ;-)

[Wickerman]

9. Gutknecht is making a name with his prescription drug

buying spree in Canada bill. Unlikely to be successful and a lousy short-term stop gap solution at best, but it plays well enough

[jiacinto]

12. Will the Greens run someone against him,?

nt

[mndemocrat_29]

13. I'd assume so

They ran someone against Wellstone.