My state senate analysis.
District 12- Republican senate co-president looks like he is in big trouble. He has been under fire for potential ethics problems after a series of reports by the Asbury Park Press. Ellen Karcher is a strong candidate and polls suggest she will win but it could be close.
District 4- Republican George Geist was appointed to seat after Sen. Mathesseun was appointed to head some commission by McGreevey. Geist has won in the assembly races a lot so he is the favorite and he is leading Fred Madden but Matheussen and other republicans refuse to endorse Geist and some have endorsed Madden so that could be helpful for the democrats
District 14- Republican Peter Inverso appeared vulnerable in this democratic leaning district but it appears that he will hold the seat comfortably.
District 36- Democrat Paul Sarlo is running here against the fairly old John Kelly. This race is quite close even though most think that Sarlo will probably win.
District 38- Democratic senator Joe Coniglio is the most vulnerable democratic state senator because he is facing longtime republican assemblywoman Rose Heck. This race seems like a tossup and could be close. All incumbent senators in this seat at some point have been defeated for reelection for something like 20 years.
District 25- Republican Senator Bucco is surprisingly vulnerably this year. Blair MacInnis is running a strong campaign and has gotten some newspaper endorsements including the Star-Ledger. This could be the surprise upset of a republican incument in a republican Morris County.
District 22- Democratic senator Joe Suliga dropped out of his reelection campaign after he was arrested and enter rehab for alcoholism. He was replaced on the ballot by Nick Scutari who like Suliga is a product of the corrupt democratic machine of Linden. He is running against the republican mayor of Scotch Plains Martin Marks who is the leader of the popular campaign to have a constitutional convention on property taxes. I think that Marks may have a shot in this usually democratic district.
http://politicsnj.com/prall2003_1008.htmThis is a good chart for seeing how the races are playing out.