Which democrat captures the electoral vote?

[jmaier]

Let me preface this by saying that I'm a political novice and not a "sanctioned" expert. Let's assume that any of the following candidates is the democratic nominee (alphabetical order): Clark, Dean, Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry, Lieberman.

In most of these cases, I see 12 "safe(ish)" states plus DC totalling 178 electoral votes: CA, CT, DC, DE, IL, HI MA, MD, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VT

I see these 7 states as probable for 77 electoral votes: IA, ME, MI, OR, PA, WA, WI

So we have a total of 255 BLUE electoral votes.

These are the hard fight maybes:

OH (20)
MO (11)
LA (9)
AR (6)
WV (5)
NM (5)

Which candidate has the strategy, platform, mojo, etc. to cobble together the needed 15 electoral votes. Please, advocate freely but try and make some reasonable assertions.

[La_Serpiente]

1. I don't know which candidate has the guns

but I think we can get New Mexico and West Virginia. What is the last and final state? It is Ohio. We must not give up on Ohio.

[jmaier]

2. Ohio is the key

I agree. While I wouldn't just want to cede the south an electoral victory isn't to hard to find without winning over any core southern states.

[Eurobabe]

42. Yes, I am working OH

Have many relatives out there. Clark can take OH.

[keopeli]

3. My family lives in Albuquerque

This is all just my opinion from having family who I spend time with that are from Albuquerque, New Mexico and Little Rock, Arkansas.

New Mexico will go to Bush without special attention to this state. I believe the way to influence New Mexico voters is necessarily the military, as this is a topic that influences everyone. Issues about economics will do little good, because that's too divisive and polarizes people. I am personally advocating Clark to my family, and he has met with the least resistance. Oddly, this is paritally because of the fact that he has arrived late in the game. And the hook here has been that Clark is an unknown general who is from Arkansas.

Additionally, I believe that Arkansas can be won by Clark. Dean is gonna have to go with the physician route, because the anti-war path won't fly. Kerry, I doubt it. Edwards, lordy that would be hard! A longshot, at best. Gephardt, maybe...probably not. Lieberman...never. They will always hate anything Clinton ever touched.

The others would be guesses for me, as I haven't spent any considerable time there.

But, clearly, with Clark, New Mexico and Arkansas are very possible.

That's 11...which makes 266.

Anybody? Ohio, Missouri, Louisiana, West Virginia? With Clark, that is.

Are there better prospects for a different candidate's combination?

[Hawkeye-X]

8. Wrong answer

New Mexico has the highest number of retired veterans, most who depend on VA assistance to survive. With *'s major cuts to the VA, the veterans, of course, are very upset with *. Plus, New Mexico has a extremely popular Dem governor, Bill Richardson who will help re-direct the * votes to someone else, including a Democratic candidate.

I believe New Mexico is more than winnable. It's solidly in the D column, as well as Nevada because of *'s lies about Yucca Mountain. It's still quite evident that Nevadans are still upset about *'s broken promise and will therefore deliver Nevada to the D column.

Hawkeye-X

[KittyWampus]

24. Didn't Dean Want To Ship Nuclear Waste To Yucca Mt.?

Pretty heavy issue against Dean if he's the nominee.

[Hawkeye-X]

43. Already against shipping waste

He's already against shipping waste as a candidate, but he wasn't as a governor. He's looking it from a national perspective instead of the local one.

Hawkeye-X

[PDittie]

4. Louisiana's very much in play

with Landreiu and Blanco winning run-offs in the past three years.

Clark wins AR (together with LA that's 270), WV, NM, and probably MO.

Toast! *glasses clinking*

[Anaxamander]

5. This is one simple way to look at it...

All the Democratic candidate needs to do to win is win all the states Gore won, plus New Hampshire. That's it. That's the election:

California: 54
Washington: 11
Oregon: 7
New Mexico: 5
Minnesota: 10
Michigan: 18
Wisconsin: 11
Iowa: 7
Pennsylvania: 23
Maryland: 10
New York: 33
Massachusetts: 12
Connecticut: 4
Rhode Island: 8
Vermont: 3
Maine: 4
New Jersey: 15
Illinois: 22
Hawaii: 4
Delaware: 3
District of Columbia: 3
+ New Hampshire: 3
-----------------
270 Electoral Votes

EDIT: Actually... nevermind. I just read the article about the electoral votes shifting. So the states Bush won have increased in population and thus electoral votes for a net gain of 7. That means we'll need another state with at least 8 electoral votes...

[Hawkeye-X]

9. How 'bout us?

Colorado is still in play, and we have 9 electoral votes!!! :hi:

Hawkeye-X

[Padraig18]

6. The ones that are very much 'in play' in '04 that I see:

AZ, NV, NM, LA, WV and AR (4 of which are in your 'hard fight maybe' list). We just did VERY well in the LA statewide elections, WV is traditionally Democratic (the NRA cost Gore WV in 2000), AZ has become more and more Democratic in recent years, NM is led by a very popular Democratic governor, Bill Richardson (rumored to be on several 'short lists' for VP). NV is a 'gut instinct' call, for me, because * is not all that popular there, and the recession and post 9-11 travel turndown has hurt the economy badly there.

I think Dean, Clark, Kerry, Edwards, Gephart and even (God forbid) Lieberman could hold the 'safe' and 'probable' blue states, and bring in between 2-6 of the remaining ones I listed. Sorry to disagree with some analysts here, but I think we have a momentous challenge vis a vis OH and MO, so I wouldn't count on either one--- but neither would I concede them.

[PSU84]

7. I agree that

Ohio and Missouri are very important. I see Ohio as a must-win state. Ohio is relatively conservative socially outside Columbus, and I think Dean would have tough going there. Dean would be easier to sell in the Midwest and border states if he had been governor of conservative NH instead of liberal Vermont - and if he had not signed the civil union bill (It's a millstone around his neck.) - and if he had served in the military.

[Hawkeye-X]

10. Ahh

But Dean will get a 50 state sweep! it's a god-send!

:eyes:

Also, Colorado is still in play. We got Ft. Carson, and they're not too enthralled with Chimpy either.

Hawkeye-X

[helleborient]

11. If he's not easy to sell in the Midwest...

Why aren't any other Democrats overtaking him? Like those who have served in the military...or those who oppose civil unions?

I'm just looking forward to a lot of hard work on behalf of the Democratic nominee...and Dean, at least, is not conceding anywhere at this point.

[goodhue]

41. This is a really good question

For which I have no simple answer. But in any event, it is certainly true that folks from New England are generally are hard sell in midwest. Sanctimonious snobs is stereotype. Kerry would have same problem.

[Jack_Dawson]

12. Dean - An Electoral Trainwreck

Governor Dean. A nice man. A man of conviction. An anti-war candidate before it was fashionable to be one. And, an electoral wet dream for the republicans. He won't win a single state outside of New England.

Clark will steal republican votes.

Dean won't.

Hate Bush? Go Clark. There's no other choice.

[Hawkeye-X]

14. Uh. There are other issues that I support Dean on

other than the anti-war. I'm against *'s tax cuts and want to see a total repeal of the tax cuts and the cuts done right this time, focusing on the poor and the middle class, and re-write the tax laws to update it since it's sorely out of date AGAIN.

Hawkeye-X

[Jack_Dawson]

13. Dean - An Electoral Trainwreck

Governor Dean. A nice man. A man of conviction. An anti-war candidate before it was fashionable to be one. And, an electoral wet dream for the republicans. He won't win a single state outside of New England.

Clark will steal republican votes.

Dean won't.

Hate Bush? Go Clark. There's no other choice.

[beyurslf]

15. Dean won't win any states outside of New England?

California?
Hawaii?

You can dislike him, but come on now, be serious.

[PSU84]

16. Of course,

Dean would would several states outside the Northeast, including probabaly California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington state (he'd better win, WA, anyway.) He also would have agood shot in Michigan.

But would the governor of the most liberal state in the Union, who signed the nation's first civil-union law, and who has no military or foreign policy experience win the more conservative Midwestern states like Illinois and Ohio, and the GOP-heavy state of Pennsylvania? Could he win in Missouri? Could he win Louisiana - which has 2 Dem. senators and a Dem. governor? He would have no chance in Arkansas or Tennessee, 2 states Wesley Clark could win.

I think the electoral map is very unfavorable to Dean.

[Hawkeye-X]

18. Time to debunk...

OK.

Dean's broad foreign policy:

http://deandefense.org/archives/000620.html

Sounds like he has good foreign policy to me. And his foreign experience also deals with Canada as his neighboring country, plus he has traveled over 50 countries...

Hawkeye-X

[PSU84]

19. Sorry,

but that is not going to convince anyone that Dean has significant foreign policy experience. And he has no esperience in national security issues.

Dean's experience - being governor of tiny, liberal Vermont - is not going to win over many independent voters in most of the United States.

[jmaier]

20. It's not the policy, it's the executive

I agree that Dean's published foreign policy position papers appear rather sound. But outside of the democratic primaries, position papers are largely irrelevant. We're not talking about winning the easy democratic votes but where are the tough swing votes going to come from?

In a campaign, perception is reality. Dean is a governor of a small, liberal northeastern state and that is going to be a HUGE impediment in places like LA, AR, NM, MO, OH, etc. I like Howard Dean and would enthusiastically support him in the GE however, primary electoral politics are not GE electoral politics -- any democrat will have a tough road to the White House, I think Dr. Dean has more baggage to lug along (again, I'm talking about PERCEPTIONS not his actual policies or intentions.) I do think he'll energize the democratic base but that might only result in another populuar vote victor, electoral victim like 2000.

My take on other candidates: Kerry, Gephardt and Lieberman are weak campaigners with little positive momentum. Edwards is smart, southern, excellent positions on issues but he doesn't have the resume and gravitas to win broadly. I think Wes Clark looks like the strongest candidate electorally however he will have some problems with the left-wing of the democratic base and he's going to be hugely cash disadvantaged from April to convention vis a vis Bush.

Nevertheless, I think Clark is probably the best overall hope but he is no favorite to win -- Bush/Rove/Cheney are sadly heavy favorites.

[teevee]

48. you call Vermont's border w/ Canada "foreign policy experience"?

wow...

that's a stretch....

But then again, I guess we can rest easy that no one from Quebec or Newfoundland will invade us while Howie's the Prez.

what a relief...

[Padraig18]

38. Dean could CERTAINLY win IL.

I think any candidate except CMB and AS could win IL. We are not as conservative as you seem to think...

[Hawkeye-X]

45. If you saw this article this morning about Dean in WA

you'll know the state director is a Dean guy. It's in Dean's blog somewhere. One of the WA's top donor is complaining about it (he's a Kerry supporter, and a poor choice btw)

Hawkeye-X

[Jack_Dawson]

17. I don't disLIKE Dean...

I think he's basically a good guy. But you are smoking something if you think he has anywhere near the national appeal of a Wesley Clark. Yes he'll win in the educated states - New England, New York, probably California, the pacific northwest. But that doesn't come close to 270 electoral votes.

I like Dean, I just think we're all going over a cliff if he's our nominee.

[Jack_Dawson]

44. I don't dislike Dean

I just know Wesley Clark will garner many more votes than Dr. Dean in a general election, and every poll I've read bears this out.

[NNadir]

26. Dean's made lots of pronosticators with similar views look stupid.

His demise has been widely predicted since the beginning. He seems not to have noticed it. This is a brilliant campaign, and brilliant campaigning wins elections.

Bush will maybe carry Alabama, Mississippi Wyoming and Utah. I think he's in trouble everywhere else. I also predict that the margin of his defeat will be highest with the likely Democratic nominee, "unelectable" Howard.

[helleborient]

21. If not Dean, then who?

No other candidate seems to be inspiring the kind of support Dean has among Democrats...grassroots work, fundraising, etc.

Why would another candidate have a better chance of inspiring the electorate?

We've seen a number of Republicans already at our Meetups - the notion that Dean can not pull in Independents and Republicans is unsupported by reality - they're already here - in polls and on the ground doing work for Dean - side by side with lifelong Democrats!

[Jack_Dawson]

22. Clark - by a landslide <eom>

[helleborient]

23. Show us the support among Democrats, then...I'll be waiting (n/t)

[PSU84]

25. Where's Dean's Lead - other than in NH?

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Nov. 14-16, 2003. N=398 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ." Names rotated

11/14-16
Howard Dean 17%
Wesley Clark 17
Joe Lieberman 13
Dick Gephardt 13
John Kerry 9
John Edwards 6
Al Sharpton 5
C.M. Braun 4
Dennis Kucinich 3
Other/None 13

[Frodo]

27. In just about every poll except the one you quoted.

And, no, he's not my first choice

[PSU84]

29. Is that so?

Well, then I suppose it will be easy for you to find at least one recent national poll where Dean's "lead" among registered Democrats is greater than the poll's margin of error.... Good luck!

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[jmaier]

30. Glad to add NV

Egnever,

That's heartening news. I hope NV is a democratic option, even in the hard fight category. How do you read the democratic candidates there vis a vis Bush -- forget the primary battle.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

31. In National Polls, no one is winning by a "landslide", but..

Latest national polling shows Dean ahead of Clark 20-16 with a 4.4 MOE. Others have shown Clark ahead but also within MOE.

In States polls, Dean leads outright in
NH http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/
MA http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/11/23/dean_bid_showing_strength_in_mass/
NY http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/DM031023.pdf
NJ http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=108&topic_id=91128&mesg_id=91128
DC http://www.wtop.com/?sid=146197&nid=213
MI http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20031010_1515.html
IA http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031121demcaucus.pdf

He also leads Clark in
FL http://tampatrib.com/floridametronews/MGA84APIFND.html (Dean ahead but within MOE)
NC http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/11/16/202950/10 (by 19%)
CT http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x9047.xml (by 14%)
OH http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/11/17/21327/930 (within MOE)

There may be more, but that should be enough for now.

I see no evidence of Clark setting himself up for a landslide, though I will certainly be hoping for one if he gets the nomination.

[Egnever]

28. You should move NV to a hard fight state

Especially if Dean is the nominee. We have a pretty comited local organization here in NV. Yucca mnt is a hot topic here and Bush screwed nevada on this one. He came to town last week and we had over 1000 protestors show up to demonstrate against him. This is almost unheard of in Las Vegas wich is a very non political city.

We have republicans and independants showing up constantly at our meetups and have recently expanded to three meetups per month. At the protest I also saw a lot of wesley clark supporters and even a few kucinich. Nevada is definately in play IMHO. I know I will be here doing all that I can to see Dean elected come the general and I am just a small fry there are a lot of very organized and moneyed people here working for Dean.

So add NV to your list :)

[RedEarth]

32. Clark

Let me start off by saying, I will support and vote for whomever is nominated. However, I honestly feel that Clark will have the best chance to beat bush. I saw first hand this past weekend at a Clark rally, several veterns that voted for bush indicate they would vote for Clark if he were nominated.

In order for the Dems to win, we have to pick up some repub and swing votes and Clark seems to come across better with this voters, especially in the states that dems need to win.

[9119495]

33. I think Clark may have the best chance, but Dean is a likely winner

I think both these guys can beat Bush. I prefer Dean so I continue to back him. I think Bush might be soft for several candidates if the jobs aren't increased (even if the economy is growing) and if Iraq and security are crappy.

Kerry could beat him too. At this stage, support your preference.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

34. Oregon is a swing state

Mannix and company is working hard to undercut the domaination of DP within the state for the last 2 years.

[GRocky]

35. Clark! (nmi)

[jiacinto]

36. I would add

NV
AZ
CO
KY
TN
FL to the list.

[PSU84]

37. Probably not FL

It will be almost impossible for any Dem to win Florida in '04. It's not going to come down to a few hanging chads this time. The politics of the state have swung to the right since 2000.

[jmaier]

39. Perhaps

I agree that AZ and even NV are possibly up for grabs. Frankly, I have a hard time seeing CO in the BLUE column. Gore couldn't hold onto TN and I don't have any confidence that the other dems are going to do well there or in KY -- given recent election trends in KY.

On FL, I'd like to add it to the list but from what I've been reading the state has swung more to the right since 2000, but voter rolls are always in such a flux there that I'd be happy to see it competitive. This is one state where the VP choice could help the outcome. Adding Graham to the ticket might swing some votes in FL.

[Hawkeye-X]

46. Actually CO is very much in play

With this latest scandal (I can't say yet) brewing against our beloved governor who votes and ass-kisses *, and it is related to why his wife is filing for divorce. This scandal will be a huge blow to Colorado Republicans everywhere in the state of Colorado and will want to sit at home in '04 and '06 and put the Republican Party in a huge disarray (think Illinois)

Hawkeye-X

[goodhue]

40. MN is not safe

assuming Nader runs, which he will if DK is not nominee

[Hawkeye-X]

47. And Greens will ignore him

as the Greens NOW do see the difference between Democrats and Republicans.

Hawkeye-X

[goodhue]

49. wishful thinking?

I hope you are right.

But here in MN the green party is relatively active and I suspect many would vote Nader if he were to run as Green party candidate. While some of these green folks happily support Kucinich, there are others who won't actively support DK because he is a Democrat. Only way to foreclose Nader candidacy is to nominate DK. (Nader has made it clear he will not run if DK gets nomination). Otherwise, its going to be a very close election with greens once again postitioned to play spoiler in states such as MN, WI, OR, NM. I'm all for ABB, but not certain its going to happen with Nader in race.