Clark gaining ground in N.H., Analysts Say

[PSU84]

The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette Wednesday, December 3, 2003

Clark gains ground in N.H., analysts say

BY Paul Barton

CONCORD, N. H. — Sen. John Kerry’s fading strength is creating a strong possibility that Wesley Clark might finish as high as second in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, the head of a prominent polling firm said Tuesday. Clark’s staff has downplayed expectations, suggesting the former general will finish a respectable third or fourth.

But Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group in Manchester, said he sees Clark evolving into what pundits are calling the "Dean alternative" over the next two months. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is considered almost a lock to win the Jan. 27 primary. Who will he have to beat after that? "The only one I can make a case for is Clark," Bennett said.

Political analyst Jennifer Donahue of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College said Clark’s organization in the state is finally making its presence felt. It "seems to be getting into sync," she said. Kerry, meanwhile, has shrunk to the low double-digits in the latest polls, Bennett said.

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http://www.nwanews.com/adg/story_national.php?storyid=49232

[Freddie Stubbs]

1. If Kerry can't even come in 2nd in NH, he is toast

Remember when the expectation was that he was going to win NH?

[deminflorida]

2. If the good people of N.H. closely review the issues....

they will see that Dean's plan to roll back the entire Bush* tax package means raising taxes on middle class America. This one issue alone should be enough to push Clark ahead of Dean in N.H. Why would a state support a candidate that would lose a national election, and trust me Dean's stance to raise taxes on Middle Class America overshadows all other issues in this election.

[Bucky]

3. Do you mean that families' financial stability is more important than...

What kind of ozone-coddling, owl-hugging, save-the-Constitution extremist are you to think than tax rates for average famililies is more important to government than Gay Marriage, Protecting Our Only Last Remaining American Flag from the Multitude of Haters trying to Burn It, or protecting our way of life from the literally zillions of Terrorists who are hiding under our beds even as we speak--OMYGOD, THERE'S ONE NOW!! Kill it! Kill it!

[PSU84]

4. It is very difficult to

hug an owl! Not that one shouldn't try....

[hilzoy]

6. Hugging owls

would not be good either for the owl or the hugger. (Think large aerial predators with serious claws who don't realize that being smothered by a huge alien being is that being's way of trying to show affection...)

[deminflorida]

5. The Middle Class TAX issue trumps all other issues...

including Gay Marriage, Environment, Terrorism, etc....Raising Taxes is the one issue that Rove will use against Dean to extreme, period. Everyone knows it, I just wish Dean would re-explore that one. He may say that in order to pay for universal health care everyone will have to pay additional taxes, but that won't fly in a national election. It did not work when Hillary Clinton tried to implement it, it won't work for Dean either.

[BootinUp]

7. I strongly suspect

Dean will modify his position on that if he wins the nomination. Otherwise he would get clobbered, and especially if the economy continues to show signs of improvement.

[Hawkeye-X]

10. Re-read Dean's tax cuts policy

he'll be re-writing the tax code after repealing the tax cuts. It isn't a tax hike, per se, but rather returning to Clinton tax base and re-cut it correctly (think tax cuts for the poor and the middle-class) and a bit of a cut for the wealthy.

Hawkeye-X

[lastliberalintexas]

8. Dean does NOT want to raise taxes on the middle class

And neither does Gephardt. What they both want to do is repeal the Shrub tax cuts and then start over with a new package of cuts directed and targeted to the middle and working classes and the poor so that the tax cuts can have a real impact on the economy without killing us with deficits.

When you say that either Dean or Gephardt wants to "raise" taxes on the middle class, you are only stating part of their plans- to repeal the Shrub tax cuts. You aren't looking at what their next step would be. Now I understand that most repubs can't think past a step one, but I would hope that we Dems can. :-)

You can dislike Dean or prefer someone else based on other, real issues. But please don't let this *alleged* middle class tax increase issue drive you away from either Dean or Gephardt, since they are both fine candidates.

[sandnsea]

13. That WILL raise taxes

I can't understand why people don't get this. It's simple mathematics. If you take home one amount this week and the tax cuts are repealed and you tax home less next week, that's a hike in taxes. Period. That's all.

Now if you put in Gephardt's plan to actually really and truly give health insurance to all Americans, they might accept it. But Dean's plan doesn't do that, it's incremental and hit and miss. And his plan in Vermont IS running deficits which the Republican party will surely hammer away at, even though our Democratic candidates have either been too kind or too stupid to bring up. So we have a tax HIKE in exchange for an iffy health plan that's already running deficits in Vermont. That is what people think will beat George Bush.

Not in a million years.

[poskonig]

9. Clark can win the nomination if he pulls in 2nd in NH.

That would be enough for a "win" for the Clark campaign, and would get him a bunch of free media coverage before the early February primaries, many of them in rural states.

Of course, if Kerry and Clark beat each other up in NH, but Kerry remains in second, then they both lose. And NH seems to be a must win for Kerry unless he can expand his campaign to other states ASAP.

[Hawkeye-X]

11. Nope.

Clark abandoned IA.. that was a mistake. And Clark will come 4th in NH, 3rd in SC and give up.

Hawkeye-X

[PSU84]

12. LOL

And Bush will admit he lost in 2000 and decline to run in '04.

[blm]

14. Paul Barton is a GOP tool. Careful of his reports.

Gene Lyons is the ONLY left voice at that paper.