Zogby: Dean increases NH lead over Kerry to 30 pts.

[pruner]

October results in parenthesis

Dean 42 (40)
Kerry 12 (17)
Clark 9 (6)
Lieberman 7 (3)
Edward 4 (6)
Gphardt 3 (4)
Kucinih 2 (0.4)
Sharpton - (0.5)
Moseley Braun - (0.1)
Not Sure 19 (19)

n=503 likely Democratic & Independent voters

MOE±4.5


http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=763

[molly]

1. I am not worried one little bit

[ryharrin]

2. Not worried about what?

Kerry winning any delegates?

[Vikingking66]

5. godlike serenity

I applaud your faith.

[dfong63]

8. does that mean you're worried a whole lot?

[Nicholas_J]

40. Not at all

What I love most about New Hampshire is their tendency to turn against the frontrunner in the last week of the primary period.

The same thing happend with Gore/Bradley in 2000. Gore was WAY behind Bradley, and in the last week BAM...

It has virtually always happened that way in New Hampshre when the Democratic Nominee was not the incumbant.

What is really far more of interest is Deans amazingly bad performance in states that have been called Kingmakers in the last 30 years. In South Carolina, Dean is far from in the lead. In Florida the other Kingmaker, no Dem comes close to Bush, but Lieberman is still in the lead, way ahead of Dean, and Kerry comes in just a few points behind Lieberman.

I went to Deans appearance in North Florida, and the hotel confernce room which is very large, had about 100 Dean supporters in it, but in order to look good for the camera, they CROWDED this small group shoulder to shoulder in the center of the room, and brought the cameras in close in order to make it appear that there room was packed. There was what I anticipated, a tour bus that brought as many Dean supporters as they could to this city, from states as far away as South Carolina.

Iowans have a similar temperment and virtually 75 percent of Iowa Democrats switch from, the frontrunner to another candidates in the last week or so before the caucus vote.

It is absolutely necessary for Dean to win in Iowa and New Hampshire to stay in the race, but as most political analysts state, that Dean is FAR from being a sure thing for the nomination.

It is necessary for Dean to take BOTH states to remain viable, but neither state guarantees anything.

[MercutioATC]

43. Heheheheee...

...that's all, just a chuckle.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

44. I laughed, too

It appears that he's following Dean...

Too funny.

[Dagaz]

3. Could this be time for Hillary?

She's the only person who can save the party at this point.

[Cha]

6. Sorry, but I think you are sooooooooo

WRONG!

[Dagaz]

10. maybe. Who else?

Who else can save the party from nominating someone unelectable? Which Bush state can Dean win away that Gore didn't last time?

[ryharrin]

15. Well, from the look of this poll, NH.

Don't forget that NH polls include independants, and with them included, Dean still has only a 12% unfavorable and a 78% favorable. And then there's AZ where he's doing pretty well. Not to mention Ohio where Bush is basically screwing himself over with the steel tariff issue these days. And of course there's his strong organization and fundraising in you know, every single state.

[Vikingking66]

30. New Hampshire, West Virginia, Tennessee, Colorado

All states Gore lost because of guns and because he couldn't excite the Democratic base to save his life. Say what you like about Dean, he excites people.

[CalebHayes]

46. When HER campaign will start

Her campaign will start in Boston.

[Cocoa]

4. this is reassuring to me

as someone who doesn't get the Dean appeal, I'm always wondering how real it is. I think New Hampshire voters have gotten a good look at all the candidates, if his lead is this big in NH, then there must be something there. I didn't get Bill Clinton during his first primary, I couldn't stand him actually, but he turned out to be for real.

[pruner]

7. more info:

Zogby also notes that "Overall opinion of Dean is high, with a 78% favorable and 12% unfavorable rating.... Likely voters in all age groups, all education levels, and all income levels heavily support Dean."

[molly]

9. I definitely do NOT

he is the ONLY one on the DEM ballot that I would not vote for.

[w13rd0]

11. I don't know if that says more about Dean...

...or you...

Seriously, I'd vote for any of our candidates. Hell, I'd vote for Guliani or Schwarzenegger in a matchup against Bush. But you'd prefer Bush over Dean? Is this the kind of behavior we can expect from "I'd like to ask James Baker to help me get over crying in my teacup" supporters?

[molly]

14. I do not see a big difference between Bush and Dean

except one is a pug and the other is a DEM. Check their records. Both came into the presidential races with very little background on what it takes. Dean scares the bee-jeebies outta me. I had lunch a couple of weeks ago with someone who has never been on DU - she mouthed exactly the Dean mantra presented here - wouldn't even discuss his weak points - much like DU Deanies - I would have thought she was one of you. She didn't know the facts - didn't care - much like you - it was the CAMPAIGN! The brainwashing goes on - or rather - "grass roots energizing".

It will catch up with him - hopefully!

[MercutioATC]

16. So help elect Bush instead...GREAT plan.

Y'know, I can't stand Lieberman and I'd still vote for him if he's the nominee. It's the people who won't be Democrats when it counts that'll cost us the election if we lose it. I'm sure we'd ALL like to see our candidate of choice win the nomination, but most of us are committed enough to change that we'll do what it takes to oust Bush, even if it's distasteful. It's a shame that some don't share that committment.

[molly]

17. I've been voting for decades and have never

either not voted or voted PUG - this would be a first. My committment is to my country and Dean can't win.

[MercutioATC]

22. Even if you believe Dean can't win, why help to assure it?

I certainly understand not liking a candidate and not voting for them in the primary. I even understand not liking the nominee and giving nothing more than your vote. What I don't understand is helping to assure a Bush victory by refusing to support the Democratic candidate. Don'd believe Dean can beat Bush, fine. If he's the nominee, we're past that point, though. Refusing to vote for him is essentially a vote for Bush.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. If you don't see a difference between Dean and Bush...

you're either not looking at the real records or you just hate Dean with the same type of blindness that you accuse your lunch date of.

Here are just a few places where they differ:

Tax cuts
Iraq policy/foreign policy
Civil unions
NCLB
Health care
Worker's rights
Environmental issues

Dean was a mostly popular governor who did well for his state in tough times. He made some wrong decisions, but I don't expect my candidate to be perfect.

There's an excellent book that I just got called Howard Dean: A Citizen's Guide to the Man Who Would be President. What's interesting is that it's written by reporters in Vermont, from the Rutland Herald and the Times-Argus, 2 papers who have been admittedly harsh on Dean at times. These are the reporters who covered him every day for years. It's a fair and careful look at his record. You should read it.

I happen to agree with you that there are some Dean supporters who are so fervent in their support that they don't want to listen to anything negative -- I see this in the Clark group too, and I think it's just people who are new to politics or just so excited about the candidate that they can't see the gray areas. But these people are few and far between, in my experience with real life Dean supporters. I've met many many people from all walks of life on this campaign, and none of them seem "brainwashed". Enthusiastic certainly, but not brainwashed.

[molly]

25. Maybe enthusiastic and NAIIVE?

it would help a whole bunch if he didn't act like he has a lot to hide. Help convince him to unseal his records and I will reevaluate my stand. If he doesn't unseal them NOW, it will snowball - espcially if he is the nominee.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

32. Care to share

where we can find Kerry's private correspondence? How about Gep's? Private letters from constituents? Really like to see those.

[w13rd0]

20. omg...

...thanks for making sweeping generalizations and talking down to me. Now where could you have learned that kind of behavior? Whatever, I'm finding myself puzzled that someone as remarkably rude ...oh, nvm

[Khephra]

21. One big difference

Judges.

[9119495]

26. Right and there was no difference between Dems and Reps, Ralph

You can't honestly believe what you just said about Dean, Molly.

Check his proposals vs. the Bush records. You don't like Dean? Fine, but don't say there is no difference.

NCLB
Environment
Energy
Civil Unions
Health Care
Medicare
National Security
Iraq
...

[PAMod]

31. The people Dean will attract to his administration will be vastly superior

to anyone associated with Bush.

For that reason alone, you should change your attitude, even if you can't stand Dean.

Keep your eyes on the prize!

[dsc]

37. You just told ever gay person on this board

f you. You just told every person who is pro choice on this board f you. You just told every person who thinks Iraq was wrong headed f you. I could go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on some more about substantive differences on a range of public policy issues you claim not to matter one whit when you say there is no difference. Don't be surprised if those people say f you back.

[Nicholas_J]

41. If you look at Deans behavior as Governor

HE was very similar toBush, and in some cases, even more imperious.

Dean virtually never would go to the legislature to talk to legislators to create a working relations, was overwhelmingly dictatorial, vetoing more legislation than any other Governor, most of the time for reasons related to favoring business interests, and ALWAYS doing so behind closed doors. Deans tenure as governor was as sectretive as Bush's if not moreso, with Dean actually having to be sued by the local media to gethis schedule in the last years he serves as governor. He acted much like Cheney and his meetings withe the Energy industry, not just in his meetings with the Energy Industry, but in all his dealings with private businesses. Dean refused to let the public know anything about his dealings as Governor. Dean was sued by the media for his schedule, threatened suit by the Conservation Law Foundation simply to get a list of the number of phone conversations he had with various businesses in which the state was negotiating sales of public utilities, by regional organizations advocating for the citizens of Vermont against the health industry and pharmaceutical companies.

Dean had one of the most closed, secretive executive offices that has ever been held by a democraty in public office.

It seems very likely that Judicial Watch, the same group that sued to get records of Cheney's talks with the energy industry opened will succeed at getting Deans records as Governor unsealed, and doing so was one of the reasons they decided to back away from going after Cheney's records to focus on getting Deans records opened. There is more legal precedent for getting Deans records unsealed than there are for getting Cheney's meetings unsealed, as the length of time Dean wanted the records sealed, as well as the final time agreed on goes far beyond anything ever done in the past.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Hmmm. I bet Kerry throws his support behind him.

And votes for him. And you respect Kerry's judgment, right?


(If Dean's the Dem. nominee)

[9119495]

28. I agree Rummy.

Just as Dean would ardently campaign for Kerry. Is it time we start to ask all of our candidates to make a statemnt of eventual support of the nominee? Perhaps that would prevent some of the crap on DU about some of our Dems being no different than Bush.

[CMT]

23. that is your right of course

but it does indicate that the questions to Dean supporters regarding whether we will support the eventual democratic nominee are off base--most of us have indicated we would. It is some of the strongly anti-Dean people who I have often wondered about in terms of voting for Dean if he is the nominee. Your comment speaks volumns.

[beyurslf]

34. So Molly

Do you think Bush is better than Dean?

I 'd have to question how much of a Dem a person was who believes that one.

[liberalpragmatist]

13. As a Kerry supporter, I'm realistic but I still think this is probably off

There's no doubt that Dean's leading Kerry by at least 15 pts, most likely closer to 20. This seams somewhat high though -- Zogby's NH polls tend to be on the fringes -- they show solid trends that are shown in other polls, but other polls are usually have less polar results. I expect that a new string of NH polls will come out and essentially the margins will be the same as last time -- anywhere between 10 and 20 pts towards Dean. If you actually analyze the results, it doesn't seem like there's been a lot of movement. 42% to Dean from 40% -- statistically insignificant. Kerry from 17% to 12% -- again, only marginally significant.

Still, I'm realistic enough to realize that Dean has a much better shot at winning NH than Kerry at this pt, nor am I a Dean-basher. I would be very enthusiastic abt a Dean nomination, and against the CW I think he'd be the strongest candidate b/c he excites people and energizes youth and Democratic voters. I happen to support Kerry though b/c I think if nominated he'd still be a strong candidate and, more importantly to me, I honestly and firmly think he'd be by far the best president of any of the 9 running.

Despite this poll, hope is not lost for Kerry. He can pull through and he has my fervent support. But I'm not going to bet the farm on this one.

Did I mention that Dean's my #2?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

18. Hey

I think you really ARE a liberal pragmatist! :) Well said!

[9119495]

27. Thanks lib prag.

I'm in the same boat but I'm a Dean supporter. I would enthusiastically support Kerry or anyone else. I hope there are more people like us out there who know what is at stake.

[Freddie Stubbs]

33. Another poll just out with similar results

Dean Increases Lead As Clark Challenges Kerry for Second Place
Among Democrats in New Hampshire


Receiving a boost from registered Democrats, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean now leads with 45%. Senator John Kerry is at 13% and Wesley Clark is at 11%. Ballot preferences for the six other major candidates remain in single digits.

Dean's strength is based on gaining support from registered Democrats. A total of 46% of registered Democrats now say they would vote for Dean, surpassing the 44% of undeclared voters saying they would vote for Dean.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 430 Democrats (72%) and 170 undeclared voters (28%). The interviews were conducted November 30 through December 3, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Ballot preference for Dean is up 7 percentage points from two weeks ago as ballot preference for Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points.

more: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

[Nicholas_J]

42. Also

Kerry and Dean are now statistically close to being in a dead heat for second place in Iowa in most of the polls taken there, except for one recent poll which show Dean and Gephardt in a dead heat with Dean supposedly ahead.

Also in the process of looking at some connmections that may make some of the Zogby polls a bit suspect.

[MercutioATC]

45. Why was Zogby O.K. to quote until they showed Dean leading?

Seems you never had problems citing Zogby poll results when Kerry was ahead....

[CMT]

24. if this poll is correct

there is a big fight for second place going on--Kerry, Clark, and Lieberman and maybe even Edwards.

Let's face it if John Kerry loses the primary by anything over ten points he is out of the race. If Clark comes in second he will have surprised the analysts. Same thing for Edwards and Lieberman--though it would be a big night for Lieberman since he has been fading everywhere if he did infact come in second.

I still think that Kerry will be second but Clark will be close behind.

[ludwigb]

29. Very interesting....

It doesn't look like Dean can be stopped now. The race is for 2nd place. Kaus recently remarked that the Dean campaign may be making a mistake in trying to knock out Kerry. If Kerry fades, then that creates an opening for Clark or Edwards (and who knows, maybe even Liebermann--I don't like him but if the Dems are desperate they may turn to him as someone with a moderate image) to emerge as a more electable anti-Dean. Kerry has never been able believably to assume this role because he shares all of Dean's electoral liabilities and more (Northeastern liberal, etc.). Dean's political interest is that nobody drops out and that the media continues to focus on Kerry as the main challenger.

[beyurslf]

35. How much can a race for second

help anyone if the person who takes first wins by 25+ points?

That's like the Lakers beating everyone by 30 points but the one team that came within 28 points claiming "victory."

[helleborient]

36. If Clark beats out Kerry it means something...

Because Clark is from the South, and so would be doing respectable outside of his home region.

I think with both the ARG poll and Zogby poll showing Clark seriously gaining on Kerry in NH, it's looking more and more like a 2 person race...possibly 3 if Gephardt hangs in.

[dolstein]

38. This is bad news for Dean

Ok, I say this half-jokingly, but I don't see how Dean can possibly exceed expectations in New Hampshire. Edwards and Lieberman could both get a bounce out of New Hampshire simply by finishing in double digits. On the other hand, if Dean "only" wins by 20 points, he'll appear to be losing momentum.

[LuminousX]

39. Peaked too soon again?

Damnit