Zogby: Dean takes slight edge in South Carolina

[CMT]

The South Carolina primary is looking tigth with six candidates within the margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Here are the latest numbers:

Dean: 11% (9% in Sept/ 4% in July)
Lieberman: 9% (8% in Sept and 13% in July)
Clark: 9% (2% in Sept)
Edwards 7% (10% in Sept, 5% in July)
Sharpton 7% (5% in Sept, 8% in July)
Gephardt 7% (4% in Sept, 8% in July)
Kerry 4% (8% in Sept, 5% in July)
Braun 3% (1% in Sept, 3% in July)
Kucinich 0.3%
Someone else: 5%
Not Sure 37%

Says Zogby: "This just underscores for me the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire as gatekeepers in this race. Any suggestion that the first two states are irrelevant this year is nonsense. Once the race takes shape after New Hampshire, the early winners will dominate and the early losers and non-contestants will more likely suffer."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=764

Incidentally a new Florida poll out today indicates that both Dean and Clark would be our strongest candidates vs. Bush in Florida.

Dean loses to Bush 49-41, while Clark loses 48-40--both keep Bush under 50% and are within striking distance.

http://www.sptimes.com

[tsipple]

1. Q: Is There Any State In Which Dean's Not "Leading"?

Based on current polling?

[Jerseycoa]

11. He's not in either one of these

He's tied within the MOE of both SC and FL.

FL: MOE Dems 5.3%

Undecided 31%
Dean 16%
Clark 15%
Lieberman 15%

[On the Road]

2. Wow!

I really didn't expect Dean to lead in SC. Maybe he does appeal to a few gun owners with Confederate flags on their pickups.

[MidwestTransplant]

3. Other polls have Clark first, Edwards second

[efront]

8. You mean poll (singular)

Clark has only led in one poll. All other poll(s) have had Edwards in the lead.

[Fleshdancer]

4. I didn't see this one coming

Everyone assumed Edwards would be in the lead, but Clark and Lieberman are ahead of him too.

I can't remember, when is the SC primary??

[Chomskyite]

5. If Dean takes SC this thing is over and over quick

That can only be good for our party, too. Gives him time to raise more money against the Bush behemoth.

[Frances]

6. Does anyone else see Dean taking some of the votes

of angry white men who have been voting Republican in the last 20 years?

[Jerseycoa]

7. MOE 4.5%

There's six of them in there.

And Clark's the one who is moving (up 7%).

"Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, who led in March and July polling in South Carolina, is tied for second at 9% with retired General Wesley Clark, who appears to have picked up points at the expense of the other candidates since earlier polling."

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. Kerry and Edwards are the only ones who lost ground

I don't think that Kerry will even be in it by then. Edwards will still be, but would probably drop out if he lost SC.

[helleborient]

10. Kerry has lost half of his support here, too...

No other candidate in the race is sinking so fast...not even Lieberman here.