Salon - Is Dean Stoppable?

[pruner]

Every candidate has a winning scenario -- but most political experts seem to agree that six weeks before the first vote, Dean looks tough to beat.

…

But supporters of Dean's competitors -- not to mention the candidates themselves -- can of course still explain the intricate scenarios that lead to a different ending, whether it's Rep. Dick Gephardt (Iowa as springboard to rest of states), Sen. John Kerry (surprise showing in Iowa, resurgence in New Hampshire), Sen. John Edwards (strong non-first-place finishes in the first two contests followed by wins in the South) or Wesley Clark (same as Edwards minus Iowa, where he is not competing). And they certainly aren't convinced that it's all over with six weeks to go.

…

Given that, a growing number of politicos regard the various victory scenarios of the other candidates as almost too far-fetched to consider. And some of those political experts still willing (when pressed) to entertain them, seem to do so halfheartedly.

"I don't know if I believe this can actually happen," said Democratic consultant Tom Ochs, "but this would be the Doomsday scenario: Gephardt wins Iowa, and then maybe Dean wins in New Hampshire, but by less than the margin that polls predicted pre-Iowa, and that would be seen as him losing momentum. Then somehow maybe Edwards or Kerry survives by finishing third or second in the first two states. Then Dean finishes second in a bunch of places on Feb. 3, so he ends up out of the money in South Carolina, second to Clark in Arizona, and Gephardt wins Missouri and Washington state. So after three rounds, the only place Dean will have won is New Hampshire.

"So then a view might emerge that the wheels are coming off," he continued, "and the powers that be will decide that one of the other candidates can beat Dean -- maybe Edwards or Clark after they win South Carolina -- and then a strong other-than-Dean candidate emerges. Then the party's money and institutional forces coalesce around that one candidate, and other candidates drop out and don't endorse Dean because they all hate him. Then in the next round, this other candidate -- maybe Gephardt or Edwards or Clark -- maybe this candidate can win some other big state against Dean."

…

http://salon.com/news/feature/2003/12/05/dean/index.html

[La_Serpiente]

1. Cuomo said something interesting

Cuomo says. "This other guy is failing because ... Nobody talks about the substance. I've gotten calls from a couple of people who I respect very highly for their intelligence and credibility. Both were with different candidates and said to me, 'You've got to go with Dean.' Why? 'Because he's going to win.' Why? 'Because he has people excited. Because he has money. Because he has a lock in the polls in New Hampshire. Because he has two big unions, he has the kids, the Internet loves him, because he came out early against the war.' That's all fine. But should he win?"

But should he win? I have a feeling that some of the other campaigns are going to frame their message around this question.
*Note: this is not an attack, just an observation and a prediction.

[pruner]

2. if he's got the most support, which seems to be the case…

damn right he should win.

[Jerseycoa]

5. Wise Man of the Party

I can't understand why more people aren't asking.

[joeybee12]

3. They drop out and don't support him because they HATE him?

Anyway, an interesting point is that as pundits are starting to sharpen their knives against Dean, he gains in polls. I see a relation between the two.

[annxburns]

4. Please don't flame me ...

... but do we need two of these threads?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=834198

[pruner]

6. yes

DU rules allow the same thread to be posted in GD and P&C because a lot of people only read one forum or the other.

:)

[annxburns]

7. Okay, didn't know that rule. My apologies.

[Dems Will Win]

8. The main reason why that scenario will never happen is the NEW REGISTERS

Don't forget, all these polls are of REGISTERED VOTERS. Guess who a pollster will never call? Those who haven't registered yet!

Add 6 to 10 to 15% for Dean in various states to EVERY poll you read, because he will take 85% at least of these new voters. Result Dean can't win Missouri, but no one will expect him to. With the Unions and THE KIDS, he will likely romp everywhere. I personally know New York is way in the bag already.

The thing is the Dean campaign is not a campaign, it is a REVOLUTION. Young people have never voted and many others have never voted and now they will because Dean is community-building first and running for PResident second. No one's ever done that before and look what happened. The alienated feel like they BELONG to something for the first time in their lives. And Belonging is the strongest human emotion after Love and the Parental Instinct.

The primaries? Hah! This is not going to stop until all of the Middle and Left unites behind Dean and truly, truly changes this country and so the WORLD.

[NashVegas]

9. Here's a Very Telling Paragraph

The rise of Howard Dean, of course, and the corresponding phenomenon of Internet fundraising, present obvious examples. Few people at the time had foreseen the rapidity with which support for the war in Iraq would become a political liability, or measured correctly the depth of anger toward the president among Democratic voters.

Many of us on DU have expressed seething anger or general upset. And the mainstream news media has done everything they could to keep a lid on it.

The revolution will not be televised, indeed.