Poll: Dean becoming inevitable winner of NH Primary

[Khephra]

Poll: Dean becoming inevitable winner of NH Primary
By JAMES W. PINDELL
PoliticsNH.com

RINDGE, Dec. 8 – A poll out this morning suggests that two-thirds of those likely to vote in the New Hampshire Primary 50 days from now believe that Howard Dean will likely win, a number that has grown in recent weeks and has began to craft an air of inevitability that has left his Democratic rivals either shaking their heads on how to thwart the prowess or nearly give up on the Granite State altogether and focus on Iowa.

A new poll by Franklin Pierce College shows that among support Howard Dean has a 39 percentage points compared to John Kerry’s 14 percent, an 11 percentage point increase since the last FPC poll two months ago. All other candidates had support in the single digits.

New Hampshire polls since the summer have shown the growing Dean lead, but what might be more interesting to political observers is the fact that 67 percent of likely voters believe that Howard Dean will win the primary. Even 56 percent of Kerry supporters believe Dean will win the primary. Two weeks ago a poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center showed 61 percent of likely voters thought Dean would win.

“What’s really bad news for the other candidates is that this inevitability mix is starting to cement,” FPC pollster Rich Killion said. “And isn’t even advertising on TV here.”

more................

http://www.politicsnh.com/archives/pindell/2003/december/12_8FPC.shtml

[CMT]

1. yet another poll showing Dean with a huge double digit lead

not of 30-points, but 25-points is quite nice too. I don't think he will win by that margin though. I will be happy with a ten-point plus victory and it would be wide enough to be significant.

[xultar]

2. YEA!!!! now that we know who won NH we don't even need to vote,

that saves a lot of time and campaign dollars for sure. I think that is pretty kewl!
I'm not joking either. I do really think it is kewl.

[helleborient]

3. Predicting winners of elections is nearly as old as elections...

It mainly sounds like sour grapes when the act of taking polls or predicting who will win an election is attacked.

[xultar]

6. I wasn't attacking...I was just saying...since we know whos gonna win we

can save some money by using it in states where we have a chance. So we don't run outta dough.
Know what I'm sayin...that is strategy. Don't be so sensitive.

geez

[helleborient]

11. I'll be less sensitive when...

The Dean supporters are stupid and will get their comeuppance when evil takes over the world posts come to an end.

And, true, yours isn't one of them.

I have read, however, posts using very similar words to yours meant to attack Dean supporters for celebrating the lead in New Hampshire...cynically implying we don't want people to actually vote.

[Kahuna]

4. When is the last time NH picked a winning candidate?

:shrug:

[helleborient]

7. Bill Clinton is the only general election Democratic winner to lose NH...

In the last 50 years.

Jimmy Carter, Lyndon Johnson, and JFK all won in New Hampshire the years they were elected.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. 2000

Gore won the primary and went on to win the nomination.

[NashVegas]

5. If Those Numbers Are Truly Accurate

It's an amazing indictment against the party establishment and the news media, who've been under-reporting the anger directed towards both said establishment AND the BFEE.

[unfrigginreal]

8. Great news from NH!

Here's a breakdown of the poll showing current/(Oct) results.

Dean 39 (33)
Kerry 14 (19)
Clark 5 (7)
Edwards 5 (4)
Lieberman 4 (3)
Gephardt 3 (4)
Kucinich 1 (1)
Moseley Braun 1 (0)
Sharpton 1 (0)
Others 1 (1)
Undecided 27 (27)

http://www.fpc.edu/pages/institutes/poll/poll_03_1208.pdf

[annxburns]

10. I really do thing Dean has it almost locked up ...

... I don't see an anti-Dean emerging (Gep, Kerry, Clark) and it is almost too late. If he gets the momentum from Iowa and NH, I think a lot of those undecideds are going to swing his way. There will be no time to stop the freight train because the primary schedule is so compressed. (Ironic that Terry's manipulation of the primary schedule helped the anti-DLC candidate).

I don't feel great about this BTW, because I think he is going to be an extraordinarily weak GE candidate. But I am beginning to think it is inevitable that he is our nominee. He seems untouchable. Every negative article, every slam, just seems to make him stronger ...
I'm disappointed but resigned. As Josh Marshall quoted a Democratic Insider "It's Dean".

[slinkerwink]

12. you don't have to be disappointed or resigned

the primaries are still 50 days away. Anything can happen in that time. However if Dean does get the nomination, I don't think he'll be a weak GE candidate. He'll be a strong candidate because of support from people like us.

[annxburns]

13. I hope your right Slinkerwink, I really do ...

... needless to say, if he is the nominee I will support him

[GreenArrow]

14. 27 percent undecided

any indication of which way those voters might be leaning?

[UnapologeticLiberal]

15. I'm a little worried

This ups the expectations and now it won't be about who wins but how much Dean wins by, and if he wins by less than 15-20% it will be painted as a loss.