The Iowa and Granite State Follies: A Quizzical Guide

[Jerseycoa]

I looked back a few pages and didn't see this ABC News Analysis I read this morning. It's a couple of days old and seems to have missed the latest polling from New Hampshire, but it's still an interesting read.

ABC News Original Report

It once seemed clear why New Hampshire mattered: Starting with Dwight Eisenhower, no one who lost the state's first-in-the-nation presidential primary went on to get elected president. Granite Staters spent four decades invoking this factoid, proof positive of their power, prescience and uncanny ability to back the right horse.

Then it crumbled, as coincidences do — yet another bellwether done in by the law of averages.

The Democrats went first: Bill Clinton lost New Hampshire but won the presidency in 1992. And then George W. Bush did it in 2000. (Indeed, a quarter of New Hampshire winners haven't even gotten nominated).

At least there's Iowa — only its track record is worse. Just once since 1972 has the winner of a contested Iowa caucus been elected president — Bush in 2000, when he went mano-a-mano with … Steve Forbes. The stronger challenger, John McCain, sat that one out.

[helleborient]

1. The element this analysis misses, however,...

The spin coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire has been important.

Bill Clinton showing some support in Iowa in the face of the expected Harkin victory...and then becoming the "Comeback Kid" by finishing second in New Hampshire was extremely important to his campaign.

Likewise, Bush stemming total collapse against McCain was very important spin heading into South Carolina.

Al Gore stopped Bill Bradley in New Hampshire which was extremely important to his march to the nomination.

I agree that the importance may be overstated, but even recent historical record has shown performance in these contests has been important...even if the candidate didn't win.

This article also fails to mention that a Democrat has not been elected President in the last 50 years without finishing at least second in New Hampshire.

[BJ]

2. "Bush in 2000, when he went mano-a-mano with … Steve Forbes."

Anybody who thinks the 2000 Republican Iowa Caucus Dog and Pony show was serious also believes in the tooth fairy and the Easter Bunny. lol
That's why McCain sat out Iowa.