New Pew Polls from Iowa, NH, and SC

[CMT]

Pew has new polls out of these three key early caucus/primary states and the news is good for Dean in Iowa and NH and good for Edwards in SC. Here are the results:

Iowa
Dean: 29%
Gep: 21%
Kerry 18%
Edwards 5%
Kucinich 4%
Clark 3%
everyone else 1%
Undecided 17%

**The news is good for Dean because he has opened an 8-point lead in Iowa. It is also good news for Kerry who is only 3-points behind Gep. Now imagine if Kerry comes in second in Iowa? it would give his campaign a well-needed shot.

NH
Dean: 34%
Kerry 20%
Lieberman 8%
Clark 8%
Gep 5%
Edwards 4%
everyone else 1%
Undecided 17%

Note that double-digit Dean lead in NH contiues, but in some good news for Kerry the lead in this Pew Poll is at 14-points for Dean is less than most recent polls which have given Dean 20-30 point leads.

SC
Edwards: 16%
Gep 10%
Clark 10%
Lieberman 9%
Dean 7%
Kerry 3%
Braun 2%
Kucinich 1%
Don't Know 33%

It is tight in SC but Edwards is leading by above the moe by 6-points. The race for second place is intense with Gep, Clark, Lieberman, and Dean closely packed together.

Analysis by Pew:
**Dean's lead in Iowa is even greater among those who say they will "definitely" attend caucuses. He leads with 31% to 19% for Gep and 18% for Kerry. Kerry has a chance of beating Gep in Iowa according to Pew.

**Kerry leads among Union workers in Iowa, 28% for Kerry, 25% for Gep, and 20% for Dean--this is surprising. It shows no clear favorite among unions, but this has to be good news for Kerry and a blow to Gep.

**Dean has solid lead among those who call themselves liberal or progressive in Iowa.

**Dean has stronger support than Kerry in NH, with 51% saying they are strong supporters of his compared to 37% of Kery supporters. Clark and Lieberman have softer support levels in NH.

**A third of Kerry supporters in NH rank Dean as their second choice. Current supporters of Clark and Lieberman lean toward Dean over Kerry as their second choice.

**The race in SC is still very fluid. A third of likely voters express no candidate prefernce at this point.

**Sharpton leads among African-Americans with 15% followed closely by Edwards 13% and Gep at 11%. Lieberman gets 7% of black vote and both Clark and Dean attract 6% at this time.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=198

[La_Serpiente]

1. Wow, thank you for the info

:-)

[wtmusic]

2. Good analysis CMT

:-)

[catherineD]

3. Thanks for the polls -- though I'm starting to wonder about them!

As a Clark supporter, these are disappointing for me. But I'm also feeling kind of puzzled. The range of change from the last polls I saw seems so dramatic. Are people really changing their minds so rapidly right now? Are they unhappy with Clark's ads? Or watching Hardball with Dean last Monday and then getting a phone call from a pollster? For Kerry to be 20% and Clark 8% in New Hampshire, when about a week ago Kerry was around 12% and Clark around 9%...perhaps that motorcycle bit played well or whatever commercials Kerry is running, though. Funny the way we can think one thing makes or breaks a campaign -- say, Gore's endorsement -- when things can still be so volatile!

[Zynx]

4. That NH poll is way out of whack with everyother one out there and is old

Much of it was taken in November.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

5. The South Carolina poll is bad news

But other polls have shown Dean with a narrow lead, so that is good. It really is anyone's at this point, since everyone is so closely packed together. I just hope South Carolina does not get a disproportionate amount of attention despite all the other February 3rd primaries.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

12. When I favored Dr Dean..I was telling other Deanites at local Meetups

that they should also tell the national campaign to switch gears to SC over NH..because Dr Dean had a solid lead in NH and things were unclear in SC. This was in mid-October. Now it is early December and he has slipped to 5th...his senior staff members should be lashed for this slippage. But it shows that Dr Dean campaign has weakness.

[pezcore64]

17. ....

I agree his campaign should have already started shifting to SC by now, but I dont know if thats a 'weakness' or not. Howard seems to get stronger everytime people say he cant do something, so maybe this will take issue with his volunters and they will step it up in SC.

[uconnyc]

6. dean

dean's pathetic showing in SC just goes to show that he will not be able to win any states in the South, thus losing the electoral college.

[CMT]

7. pathetic showing?

he is only nine-points out of first and statistically tied for second place. If Dean wins Iowa and NH and has Jesse Jr and Al Gore (who is very popular with African-Americans) campaigning with him then he wins. Heck he is only 3-points behind Clark and Sharpton who are tied with 10%, so how is it a pathetic showing?

[Andromeda]

11. Don't care for your choice of words...

Pathetic doesn't play---it's petty and derogatory. It's pretty early yet and things could change drastically in a week, or a month. Edwards is the homeboy in SC so his lead is not surprising. Even if Dean loses the SC primary that doesn't mean he can't win it in the GE.

[Think Globally]

13. Not at all...

There have been lots of presidents elected without winning a single Southern state. The real question is whether a nominee who can win in the South is one the rest of us would want to vote for. Dub has no problem winning Southern states... What about the rest of us? What we need to win is something to vote FOR, instead of staying home because we can't tell the difference.

[9119495]

15. Wise words TG

People act as if elections are always the same--"The South must be won!" The Supreme Court had never chosen a president prior to 2000 and I don't think an admitted adulterer was ever elected before 1992. Reagan was an "actor" and Carter was a peanut farmer.

The lesson: Each election is different. If the South had 271 electoral votes, yes it would be essential--but it does not have that many votes. Getting some EVs from down there would be great but to say its required neglects the possibility that things change from election to election.

[DrFunkenstein]

8. What Are The Chances The Media Will Mention Kerry's Good News?

They seem to always stick with the polls that show him further down, and only refer to Iowa as a two man race. A surprise showing by Kerry could generate a big buzz as the primaries get under way.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. It is mentioned in the San Fransisco Chronicle

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/12/08/national1751EST0704.DTL

[Karmadillo]

16. A Google search shows

it certainly got very little of the headline attention that greeted the recent Zogby results. It could be wrong given how other polls have shown a greater gap between the two candidates, but it could also be the first to show Kerry's improved campaigning is getting results.

[Bucky]

10. This looks worst for my guy, Clark

Damn. No traction. I'm gonna personally go to New Hampshire and volunteer. Looks like the "started too late" buzz was right. This is, of course, pre Gore.

[ErasureAcer]

14. Kucinich doing well in Iowa

Only going up up up. :)

[ISUGRADIA]

18. From 2% to 4%

He's coming in 5th in Iowa with @ 5%...mark my words.

[no name no slogan]

19. Better than that

He's got one of the largest campaigns in Iowa currently. He spoke at a rally in Decorah, IA last week, on a Tuesday morning, and drew over 250 people. And Decorah has a population of only 8000 people.

In Minnesota (where I'm at), our campaign is easily the most active in the state. Where Clark draws a crowd of 300 on a Friday night event, Kucinich drew 1600+ on a Tuesday night, the same day as Al Franken was due to be in town. Of course Clark's event gets repeated all weekend on the news, while DK's standing-room only audience in a large highschool auditorium merits nary a mention, even on supposedly "liberal" Minnesota Public Radio.

Of course, don't expect the media to report on ANY of this, as their treatment of him and his issues has been understated to say the least. Last night and ABC's response (pulling embeded reporter in his campaign) just proves that the media is seriously misguided, and their polls are at least as misguided as their coverage.

[OhioStateProgressive]

20. 17%, third (nt)

[goobergunch]

21. 15% are needed for delegates (n/t)