How will we know when someone has actually won the nomination?

[ProfessorPlum]

The delegate/superdelegate numbers seem incredibly confusing. People often say that after such and such a date, we will know who the nominee is (or it is possible no one will have the nomination cinched until the convention - that would probably be a bad situation for the party), but who the hell is keeping track of how many delegates are needed, and when will we actually know if/when someone has acquired enough of them to be assured of the nomination?

Because voters are only choosing delegates to the convention, where they could actually vote in any way they choose once there (though traditionally, like the electoral college, they do not do so), is there actually ANY sure way to tell before the floor call at the nomination who the official nominee will be?

I feel like we're in for a very nebulous ride through the primary season unless we can get some answers about this. Even the LWV sites aren't very clear about this.

My apologies for my ignorance about this - Goobergunch probably has this all toted up somewhere. Thanks for your help!

PP

[PSU84]

1. Al Gore will tell us.

Delegates are assigned in proportion to the vote in each state. Delegates are required to vote for the candidate they represent only on the first convention ballot. If a candidate heads to Boston with 51% of the delegates, it's all over. However, since about 40% of delegates are "super delegates" not committed to a candidate, and since proportional allocation may prevent any single candidate from getting 51%, there is the possibility that no one will have the nomination locked up before it opens, and we could have the first open convention since 1960.

[goodhue]

2. yes

I think the very real possibility of an open convention is what caused Gore to make the endorsement. He probably believes party will be better off if unified before convention. Personally, I think an open convention would be great, and would make for a fascinating convention for a change.

[ProfessorPlum]

3. Are you saying

that someone would have to win more than 5/6 of the delegates in the primaries to actually sew up the nomination? My understanding is that proportional allocation is the rule for the Democrats - how the hell is any one candidate in a field of 9 supposed to do that? And do the superdelegates register their votes only at the convention? Can they change their minds if they endorse a candidate before the convention? I'm wondering how it is we've not had open conventions every time, rather than having them be a rarity.

[PSU84]

5. Because.....

previously, allocation of delegates was not stricty proportional.

I don't think all states were winner take all, but I know this year is the first where the party has required strict proportional allocation and also in which such a large percentge of delegates are super delegates.

There must be some newspaper stories out there about this. You might want to do a search on google to find out more.....

[ProfessorPlum]

6. Thanks very much for the info

if this is the first year that winner-take-all is not allowed, then that would explain how they've avoided open conventions until now.

I guess what I would like is a big scoreboard somewhere, so that I can actually follow just what the hell is happening. The media wants to make this a horserace, but how exciting is it when you don't even know who the candidates are actually doing?

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. When the all of the other serious candidates drop out

[goobergunch]

7. Okey-dokey.

There are 4,316 Delegate Votes in the 2004 Democratic National Convention. A simple majority (2,159) is needed to win the nomination.

The early delegates you hear me babble about are "Unpledged PLEOs", usually known as "Superdelegates". There are 796 superdelegates (according to this, of which 655 remain uncommitted by my count.

The remaining delegates are the pledged delegates. They include At-Large Delegates, which are allocated proportionally to candidates receiving at least 15% of the vote statewide, District-Level Delegates, allocated proportionally the same way as the At-Large Delegates but in Congressional districts, and Pledged PLEOs, who are basically At-Large Delegates with a fancy name.

As for the scoreboard...that's what the Delegate Count is there for!

[ProfessorPlum]

8. Thanks GG

I see the "uncommitted" column now - that clears things up a bit. Do you know where there is a list of how many delegates are up for grabs in each primary?

[goobergunch]

9. I like to use this list

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P04/D-Alloc.phtml

It's at the bottom of the page. I'll be adding them into my site when I have time.

[ProfessorPlum]

10. Thanks! that's very helpful.

but it seems like you need to know double entry accounting to follow it.

After the Teevee says candidate X "won" a particular state, what source will you use to find out how that actually translates into delegates?

[goobergunch]

12. I'll look at the election returns

and figure out the proportions. Shouldn't be too hard.

[Padraig18]

11. As a purely practical matter

I truly believe that whoever wins the primaries will be the nominee, super-delegates nonwithstanding, simply because I cannot envision a scenario in which the super-delegates would thwart the will of the majority of Democratic primary/caucus voters. There would be HELL to pay, if they did.

[goobergunch]

13. Incidentally

Dean is now tied with Gephardt for a lead in superdelegates.

[eyesroll]

14. I agree fully.

Also, occasionally, people bring up the scenario of a brokered convention, with no one candidate having even close to a majority, and a long, drawn-out fight will ensue, culminating in Hillary Clinton or Al Gore swooping in to save the day and become a "consensus" nominee.

I've seen this on both right-wing sources and here. Not gonna happen.

Personally, I think we'll know who the nominee is well before the convention. God, I hope so, because I don't think I could stand another full summer of candidate bashing.