WP: The demographics of Bush's drop in the polls (Pew poll)

[DeepModem Mom]

Washington Post political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Parsing the Polls: Presidential Erosion

....The president's job-approval rating has dropped in every region of the country, level of income, education level, and age group, but the slippage is particularly pronounced among self-identified moderate Republicans. Eighty-one percent of this group gave the president positive marks in December, while just 56 percent did the same in May -- a precipitous 25-point decline that outpaced the 20-point drop (89 percent in December '04, 69 percent now) among Republicans overall.

The numbers are less stark when it comes to President Bush's conservative base, but perhaps even more worrisome for Republicans hoping to hold the House and Senate in the fall. The president's job approval among self-identifying conservatives has slipped from 93 percent in December 2004 to 78 percent in May. But Courtney Kennedy and Michael Dimock, authors of Pew's own analysis, pointed out...."There are far more conservatives than moderates in the GOP; as many as two-thirds of Republicans identify themselves as conservatives," the duo wrote. "Translated into real numbers, just as many conservative Republicans as moderate and liberal Republicans have grown frustrated with the president's leadership over the past year and a half."

As evidence of the erosion in what has long been considered Bush's base, take a look at his job-approval numbers among white evangelical protestants. In December 2004, 77 percent of this voting bloc approved of how the president was handling his job; the numbers wad down to just 55 percent in May. Among Southern voters, Bush's job approval has dropped twenty points (56 percent in December 2004, 36 percent in May 2006); among those who attend church weekly or more often it has slipped 17 (58 percent to 41 percent.)...

***

Two other numbers of note -- both from voting groups considered to be up for grabs in 2006. Among Hispanics, Bush's job approval has dropped 16 points (45 percent to 29 percent). Meanwhile, just 26 percent of self-identifying independents approve of his performance, a 19-point fall-off from December 2004....

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2006/06/parsing_the_polls_presidential.html#more

[Virginia Dare]

1. My moderate Repub Mother-in-Law....

thinks that Bush should be strung up by his balls in front of the U.S. Capitol Building. That is how much she hates the man. This is the one thing that she and I have agreed on politically in a long time. I would imagine she's not alone in those thoughts.

[klook]

3. Has she started liking Democrats yet?

Or is she at least disgusted enough to not support Republicans in Nov. 2006?

It seems that in heavily Red areas, a lot of the anti-Bush sentiment is that he's "too liberal" because he hasn't gotten abortion and gay marriage outlawed, hasn't nuked the whole Middle East except Israel yet (somehow also miraculously extracting the oil in the process), hasn't gotten rid of the "death tax" yet, hasn't completely re-segregated the public schools (or banned public education altogether in favor of publicly funded Christian private schools), hasn't made Islam a capital offense, etc.

We know almost none of those morAns will vote for Democrats. I just hope there is a significant backlash among moderate Republicans that a lot of them will vote Democratic this November, or at least withhold their financial support and votes from Republicans.

[Virginia Dare]

4. No, she says she's staying away from the polls...

all the more reason why wild horses couldn't keep me away.

Just anecdotal, but I think that like her, many Republicans will stay away from the voting booths in droves, I think there is a large but largely silent block of Republican voters who are disgusted with the Bush Administration, and by extension the whole Party.

Most of her anger is directed at him because of the war and gas prices.

[glitch]

5. Not a problem for the cons - the machines will register her vote properly

whether she votes or not.

[klook]

6. They will alter or discard some votes, but not all.

We have to try to beat them resoundingly, so that even with the inevitable vote-tampering via electronic voting machine, they won't be able to throw every election. Democrats have to shoot for as wide a lead as possible in every election to overcome the tilted playing field.

Republican vote-tampering is not a valid reason to give up!!! We just have to be over-achievers to beat them.

[glitch]

7. Never said it was a reason to give up. In fact, giving up gives them a

free pass. Make them steal it, how else can we prosecute them?

[klook]

8. I'm with you there!

Didn't mean to cast any aspersions on you. I do sometimes sense a kind of "fatal expectation" mentality on DU (and in myself!) so I was guarding against that.

No free pass! Prosecute the bastards!
:toast:

[glitch]

9. You are correct and I do need to be more explicit. Every time I mention

fraud I need to mention the necessity to vote anyway.
The only way they can "win" is if they cheat, so let's make them.
And catch them.

[watrwefitinfor]

2. It is necessary now to tie his Republican congress to Bush.