No housing bubble: TD

[ConcernedCanuk]

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No housing bubble: TD

Market more balanced than in U.S.
Yet sharp decline there will cool us off
Sep. 1, 2006. 06:57 AM
TONY WONG
BUSINESS REPORTER

A dramatic slowdown in the U.S. housing market has some economists forecasting that it may push the world's largest economy into a recession. But that is highly unlikely to happen in Canada, says a report by TD Bank Financial Group.

"While there is a real worry in the United States, it's not the same case in Canada," TD Bank vice-president and deputy chief economist Craig Alexander said in an interview yesterday. "The fundamentals are quite different."

Sales of new homes in the U.S. plummeted almost 22 per cent last month year over year, while inventories rose to a record level after 17 consecutive increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Last week Toll Brothers, the largest upmarket U.S. builder, reported its first quarterly decline in profit in four years.

more

y'all got serious problems down der . .

ya think it might have sumthin' to do with your gubment?

you taxpayers gotta get MAD

and do sumthing smart . .

When the housing market starts to drop that quickly -

It can CRASH

think 1929 . . . . .

[n2doc]

1. If Y'all Up North think that a US crash won't affect you

I have a bridge to sell you....

[ConcernedCanuk]

4. Nothing in my post or article suggest that. Quite the contrary

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In fact, right under the headline in my post it states: "Yet sharp decline there will cool us off"


And inside the article it is quite clear: "Still, if the U.S. economy starts to experience a major slowdown, this will undoubtedly have some impact on Canada because the United States is our largest trading partner, Alexander said."

We know up here that when our dollar is strong that US tourists don't come up here as much,

and that when your dollar can buy cheaper Canuk bucks, the tourism and trade increases.

BUT

The housing market is a necessary and humongous one

Tourism, and now - even trade is not.(with the US)

With our problems with the softwood industry, our steel and petroleum exports, we have already been marketing elsewhere.

We see the USA as an unreliable customer

And China(and others) are hungry for our resources . ..

And no,

you can't sell me a bridge,

or anything

I see made, or imported from/grown in the USA on the item?

I don't buy it.

I made that decision when I saw the USA initiate their so called "Shock and Awe"

no apologies

[applegrove]

7. Our PMs are planning on increasing the population by 1/4 (immigration)

in the next decade. At least that is what the last Canadian PM wanted. Seems we live in inefficient cities strung out all across the country and need each centre to be larger..to make economies of scale for efficient things to happen vis a vis energy etc.

I'm guessing subways in every city rather than buses..but don't know exactly. Just that the last PM said we need needed 40 Million people pronto..rather than the 32 Million we have now.

We are not in huge debt. Actually we have been paying down the debt for a decade. If this current bunch of yahoos get booted out of office - we will continue to live with annual surpluses. The issue in Canada isn't a recession cause by faulty finances..but a recession caused by too high a dollar. Fortunately we have a tradition of pegging our dollar near to yours or much less. Hope that continues.


Our middle class isn't currently being gutted. It is growing kinda like the USA back in the 1990s.

Some of our oil we get from home. Hydro too. So our balance of payments isn't as whacked out as yours... with the exception of goods from China.

I think the unemployment rate for IT workers in Canada is about 1.7%. Not the same as you.

Our dollar is rising & that will make all imported goods cheaper and unfortunately the bubble that may burst wouldn't be "housing" but our diversified economy. So there is a big chance that the government may go into more debt in an attempt to keep the dollar down. Our problems are the opposite to yours. And sure a recession in business could happen in manufacturing & IT - but I think the government will step in and try and debase our dollar somehow..before the diversified economy is destroyed.



IMHO

[buzzard]

10. I'll buy it it's pretty, I agree I think that a serious decline in the

housing market will effect all economies. I also don't see how the US can continue to attract foreign investments other than raising interest rates. Any comments welcome I am not an economist just a biologist who has become quite alarmed at what I see happening in the world.

[Kolesar]

2. So the beavers can still get a good price on soft wood?

No inflation there?

[ConcernedCanuk]

5. Beavers don't mess with softwood - Poplar and sugar maple are hardwood

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SO

they'd be probly happy if they could get compensation for cutting down softwood

BUT

They'd die of starvation waiting to get paid if they sold it to the USA . . .

[applegrove]

9. Yes - but it is based on people in Canada making money. Not dumping

money on a war. Plus our dollar will rise as we are an exporter of oil. So in fact imported products will go down in price. Canadian dollar has risen vis a vis the USA from 80 cents something to 90 cents something. That means all we buy from you is cheaper on the whole. This is actually going to be a big problem for us... rising dollar - as it will kill our diversified economy in favour of oil exports. So we will have to do something about our dollar rising too fast. The opposite of inflation when your dollar gets stronger and stronger.

[Extend a Hand]

3. I hope things don't get as bad in Canada

as I expect they will get here.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/27/weekinreview/27leonhardt.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1157119367-sSJHOPV+rFSJ8pUmuQ244g
Defined broadly, the real estate sector has accounted for 44 percent of jobs created since 2000 and employs more than one in 10 American workers, according to Moody’s Economy.com

get username/pwd here if you don't wan't to register.
http://www.bugmenot.com/view/www.nytimes.com

[plasticsundance]

6. It's not just the decline in sales of homes in the US ...

but the fact that so many people in the US were using their homes as ATM machines. In a country with negative savings rate, this does not bode very well. It is not sustainable for us to think that other countries will buy our debt in an effort to bail us out of our spending habits. That's why the Federal Reserve stopped reporting the M3, because it contains the "repurchase agreements."

Someone doesn't want us to know.

[InkAddict]

8. I see it more as a war against a

Middle/Lower Middle class that leveraged a fast/slow appreciation in RE values (depending on the geographic region) against sky-rocketing costs and expenses connected with the education racket. Now even Americans who were fortunate enough to get that piece of paper find it difficult to find employment adequate to repay the loans obtained during the days when PNACs agenda of world domination was only a "theory." Our government, economy, and hopes for our children's future have all been hi-jacked and re-routed into the PNAC treasury of terror.