A golden opportunity - Dec 15 and 16th

[junker]

This is in the form of a non-advice notice. Now, note that I am NOT offering any financial advice to any individual and am merely speculating on immediate future events relative to old man saddam being captured.

There is currently extensive speculation that the Gold Cabal (the FED, the ESF, and the bullion banksters) will use the capture to try to pop the DOW up a few hundred points while they try to take gold down below $400 an ounce.

This speculation has some real merit. The issue is whether TPTB will be able to accomplish it at all. There appears to be a growing trend in non-US parts of world that all hell is about to break loose in Iraq since old man saddam has been captured. Sort of now that he is out of the picture, the various factions will really start going at it to sieze power since they all see the hand writing on the wall that shows Bushie cutting and running before the election.....so....this would mean that gold will just shoot up on opening in EU tomorrow and not look back in spite of ESF/PPT actions in US markets.

It will be a battle of these two competing forces/memes/threads tomorrow. Should the ESF/PPT prevail, I would expect that they can keep the pressure downward on pm's no more than 2 days given their precarious positions in other places.

So what does it all mean?

Well, IF I WAS of a mind to purchase some gold/silver to safeguard my families' future, I would watch kitco or ino very closely tomorrow and go buy if I see the spot price of gold heading down.

A buy on the dips (should they appear) kind of thing...

NOT THAT I AM OFFERING ANY FINANCIAL advice to any fool with dollar denominated assets concerning the very real probabilities of dollar currency collapse in the near term. This is merely speculation that those persons who wish to purchase monetary protection (against dollar slide) MIGHT, just MIGHT find that a two day window might be opening....

thats all folks'. Just musing about the future actions of bushiesbuttbuddies-in-high-finance and their place in the grand scheme of things.

[cthrumatrix]

1. I agree and will take it a 'step further'......

It's funny the past two weekends "they" have loaded the gun against gold/equities

1) Barron's story was clearly to get the "weak hands" out of gold.

2) The SH capture is a "strong dollar, strong US stock market" story to be spun all week.

The market is at resistance levels on the S&P if you looked at the peak to now...it's at a 38% Fibanocci retracement level...quite important to technicians...this story and it's impact might be used to get the S&P above this 1074 level.

What really happens and what we are told are two different things. I have read much about the Gold Cabal and their desire to keep a leash on gold's rise since they are "short" and have been short for some time.

The magic number of $400 oz has been mentioned as a "area of concern" for people short (who knows is this is true)

I find very interesting that in two successive weekends we have significant stories against gold. Somebody does not like this. And the "powers that be" will spin away while the dollar fights for a rebound.

I do believe a "gold dip" is a good opportunity as well...there is no logic behind Saddams capture is good for the dollar.

[54anickel]

2. I was research more on the gold idea last night. Posted in one of

these threads. Yes I think there was much "news" trying to get people out of gold to take their profits and run. It seemed to have worked from what I found about one of the latest gold shows as most were in the selling instead of buying mode.

There were also many stories about the central banks (especially Germany) wanting to sell their gold and theories behind it. These stories were harder to find, and did support the speculation of gold rising once the 1999 agreement of the EUs expires in 2004. They needed to be able to "sell" their gold, but it would be in retrospect as it was in actuality previously "lost" on the lending of gold.

My research, right or wrong, led me to believe there would be a drop in the price of gold, later followed by a rally. If my speculation was correct, I was going to buy a few "trinkets". If it didn't drop, I would just toss my hands up in the air and not buy, knowing full well I may regret it. I will not bet all my savings on gold, but will divest a percentage that will "help me to sleep at night".

I think there will be much exuberance in the markets Monday. Confidence in the dollar may rise along with the markets and gold will drop. The cheerleaders are already starting on the Markets.

And no, none of this is logical just because Saddam has been captured. But then, the markets and the confidence in fiat dollars have little if anything to do with logic these days.

[rapier]

3. notes

Gameing the news is a tough racket. The ultimate advice is always to buy the rumor, sell the news.

In this environment however I wouldn't bet on that working. To the extent that the markets are manipulated or at least steered by powerful interests who hold common goals (which is my general take with the addition of my concept that the financial markets and the political 'market' are virtually the same) then I lean to the side that this will do all the things bulls hope for. Slam gold, rally the dollar and bonds and stocks. Buy the rumor. Buy the news. Buy buy buy buy buy.

I hope I'm wrong; I guess. The thing about being a bear is that the bear case if it comes to pass will entail great suffering. I take no pleasure in that or the sometimes dreamed of deliverance of justice, expressed by the deep sceptics of things financial, to the greedy who have created this weird world.

There is at its root nothing morally or ethically superior about speculating against what I'll call the Powers That Be. Speculation is speculation. (By speculating I mean virtually all the things everyone now calls 'investing')

[BeHereNow]

4. Kitco Link

Thanks Junker-
I was wondering about this very thing!
Makes perfect sense to me.
After that little bill the BFEE snuck by Saturday,
I think so even more...
I'll be sticking with NON US currency purchases though-
Philharmonics and Krugs for me!
BHN

I know what I'll be doing in the wee hours
tomorrow morning...
http://www.kitco.com/

[T Roosevelt]

5. Very interesting you should mention this

Stocks and Dollar to Get Saddam Lift
By Jan Paschal

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Saddam's capture will inspire stocks worldwide to rally when trading opens on Monday and lift the dollar, while U.S. Treasury bond prices may slip if investors flock to stocks, analysts said on Sunday.

But the capture of Iraq (news - web sites)'s former President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) by U.S. troops, who found him hiding late Saturday "like a rat" in a hole near his home town, won't help gold.

Gold prices are likely to drop, especially if the dollar rises, as expected.

Crude oil could slide, too, from its New York close on Friday just above $33 a barrel as investors consider the prospect of a potential increase in supplies from Iraq, a major oil producer.

[BeHereNow]

6. TPTB and Saddam's "Capture"

I honestly think that the "capture" is
a frantic attempt to stall the collapse
of the house of cards.
I do NOT for one minute think the "capture"
was anything more than a think tank
propaganda piece.
As a matter of fact, I think Hussein has
most likely been hanging out at the Been Forgottens
in Saudi Arabia.
I think the BFEE tapped him and said,
"Hey we need to distract the sheeple from
the economy a bit longer, so we need
to "capture you."
Smoke and mirrors, smoke and mirrors.
I DO NOT buy for one minute that
SH was hiding in a hole all this time-
NO WAY!
Think about it!
BHN

[rapier]

7. notes

The end of Saddam was inevitable. The timing unplanable. Imagining the world can be conroled to such a degree is a mistake. The end of Saddam and the end of Osama were cards that were always on the table as additional boots to the markets that were bound to be played. So now one is here.

The world isn't controlled by micromanagement. For instance on 9/10/01 a significant terrorist attack on America was inevietable. The global strategic thinkers among the neocons knew this. So they waited. Some think perhaps they stepped aside a bit to help one along. No matter really. That charge detracts from the more important issue of what we were going to do in response. They had a plan and have carried it out.

And it is still only early Monday, market time. I still think the rally will hold but a gap and crap isn't to be dismissed either.

[rapier]

8. notes

One more thing. News is noise, or so say I in relation to markets. Meaning that the news may swing things over very short periods, hours or days, but that markets will inevitably move on their own internal dynamics, which in the end mean money flows which are ruled not by News but by greed and fear.

However I admit that the management of news is now so pervasive and well orchestrated that I wonder if that skill at manipulation along with the concentration of money and assets may have reached a tipping point. Meaning that opposing ideas or realities can be effectivly crushed. In other words markets may no longer work and the idea of free markets becomes an even more sad joke.

[cthrumatrix]

9. tell that to the people that bought "put options" on airlines before 911..

not a small amount ...but 600% times normal volume. That investigation now closed even it could/was tracked by Promis software (which is used to track such behavior).


Gold @$400 oz is a big deal and it rising to 420/450+ is huge for those short...like the Bullions Banks (JPM and others).

SH capture was for a multitude of reasons...economic being one of them.

You tell me how capuring a man in a "dirt hole" props up the S&P futures by 12 pts....raises the dollar ...and drops gold over 1% in the premarket.

Choreographed...indeed.

[Rainbows]

10. Couldn't agree more ...

to dismiss geo-political from economics is to say the money does not rule politics. The world politics and economy though not 'micro managed' tie closely and stuff the same pockets. To believe that insider political and market knowledge are not used to distort and direct trends, IMHO, is short sighted. The fools are fleeced, their money released, Big Players increased ... wealth and power.

[toddzilla]

11. it's the 16th..

is all hell supposed to break loose tomorrow?

[TrogL]

12. It's the 17th

Did all hell break loose?

[toddzilla]

13. yet another junker post ..

While you may appear knowledgable mr junker, i think you're full of shit.

[54anickel]

14. Not exactly full of it if you look at the charts.

Dips early on, now on the rise. I am neither defending nor refuting, just showing the facts.

[CaptainClark23]

15. Breaking hell?

Don't appear so. Though these days, are we sure we could tell?

But after a slight dip on the 15th and 16th, gold is +4.10 at the NY close on the 17th. And is heading for 412 for the first time since early '95

Perhaps not a fulfillment of literal prophesy, if you took it as such, but technically his call was correct.

We'll see what develops tomorrow.

on edit, fixed a figure, my bad.

[54anickel]

16. Synchronized posting!! What are the chances!

:D

[CaptainClark23]

17. what are the chances?

apparently as good as gold ;)

[54anickel]

18. Ha! Well then those are pretty good chances these days.

[toddzilla]

19. While technically correct..

i wouldn't say this was evidence of a "golden opportunity".

not trying to be malicious, just calling someone on their prediction. granted, if you have a couple hundred grand you could make some serious money on a small shift like that, overall it means little to average investors.

[CaptainClark23]

20. Understand

Although I think you might have read the title of Junker's post a bit literally.

I believe that "Golden Opportunity" was a play on words, not neccessarily predicting the penultimate investment opportunity. But thats just how I read it, Junker can speak for himself, and well, I think.

Still, we might not see gold at $400 for a long time, and Junker is not the only one stating so.

And that pesky yellow metal is still going, up another $1 from the NY close on the 24 hour market. Shooting for $213?

I think this is just the beginning.

[cosmicaug]

21. Golden opportunity

CaptainClark23 wrote:

I believe that "Golden Opportunity" was a play on words, not neccessarily predicting the penultimate investment opportunity.

Except that to 99% of English speakers (or thereabouts) "golden opportunity" means just that: an unusually fruitful opportunity which happens to be a sure thing.

But yeah, Junker will get it right one of these times, of that I have little doubt (and on the meterological realm, I shall predict rain in the future --see, I can play this game too :-) ). The problem is that we might need a prophet to figure out exactly which post will be the one in which he gets it right. Any takers for the job of metaprognosticator?