Imminent dollar death - heads up to candidates/supporters

[junker]

Some of you may recall my previous post about the (then) upcoming and now emerging economic crises currently hitting WesternCivilization.

Basically this is a note to the democratic candidates and those who develop their strategies to be aware that IF they anticipate a
'good' economy to play for Bushie, then they are wrong and will be behind the curve as circumstances play out over these next few months.

So, be advised that the US dollar as a reserve currency for the planet is dying, and will do a significant amount of that dying in the month of January. We can measure that death against the price of gold, though note that does not tell the real story nor the potential for global financial disaster, merely it reflects the current state of the dollar.

In the month of Jan we will see 900 dollars per ounce gold. We will see global interest rates, including those in the US, shoot upwards on a trend that will shock most people. We will see huge increases in the costs of real goods such as food and gas and electricity.

And this is just the beginning. By the time mid summer arrives, the crises will be the item of discussion everywhere. Massive unemployment is coming at a level not imagined. As are both personal and corporate bankrupt rates.

The impact and the extent of the damage of the dollar's collapse WILL lead to civil unrest (all historic cases of paper currency collapses have resulted in civil unrest).

This has begun in earnest this month. It will accellerate and the trend should become clear to everyone with an economic bent by month's end.

If you have no silver, (or gold if you can afford it), now may well be the last period prior to hyper-inflation when one can get some.

Anyway, just a heads up to those who plot dem candidate strategy to NOT believe the 'feel good' numbers coming out of the press and the corruption that is BushLand. Contact me for pointers to resources for candidates for things economique. Including places to locate info on the real econ picture and how much worse it will get and how soon.

Oh, and remember, a bunch of us econofreaks have always known.....
Bush 2 is Hoover 2 in Depression 2.



Get ready. Those who look out to the future, find their destiny, the rest get run-over by fate.

[el_gato]

1. you can't eat gold

the libertarian right are obsessed with gold but the only thing
of real value in this world is land and water

[Petrodollar Warfare]

9. Oil and OPEC are the keys to the dollar's valuation...don't forget it

<<<<the only thing of real value in this world is land and water>>

Sorry, but that is wrong unless you are talking strictly about an agrarian society. *Energy* is the only thing of value in an industrialized society. Remember, life is nothing more than competition for energy. That applies equally to single cell amoebas, human beings and nation states as well. Energy is what drives economics. That applies to man plowing a field to a jet transporting products to over seas markets to A/C energy used to power the computer you are currently staring at.

The problem with energy (and our troubles in Iraq, etc)? Simple, oil is and has been the life blood of the entire industtrialized/ capitalistic system for the past 100 years. How do think the world's population has swelled from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion people in 2000? Answer: CHEAP & PLENTIFUL ENERGY (along with some great advances in medicine/vaccinations as well), not land and not water (which remain constant). The earth was endowed with about 2 trillion barrels of oil, and we have used almost 50% of that resource, so we are rapidly approaching global Peak Oil. Things will change post Peak Oil. Oil is what powers 95% of the world's transporation system, and hence it is the glue of the global economy. Anyhow, if you want to read my long diatribe from a few weeks ago about the relationship b/t oil and the dollar (or "petrodollar) here's the link...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=3821

As for an imminent financial crisis, I do believe one is coming, but *no one* will be able to predict the trigger(s) - not even junker. In fact, that is the main problem with junker's posts - he makes specifgic predicitions like $900 p/ oz gold, but does not provide specific or ananlytical evidence as to how such a devestating event could transpire. He doesn't specify what are the triggers, just like the dollar index was supposed to be at 70 by this point if I recall correctly (I think its around 86/87 last time I checked). (FYI: I bought gold at $330 and $390, so I too believe gold is going to go way up, but I have no idea how high, and I am not a "gold bug" - yet).

As for 2004, I think it will be a very bad year. Here's what my Libertraian (and a gold bug) friend emailed me today:

*************
Just a few thoughts on the economy I've noted going into 2004

There is really nothing I've seen on the horizon that will change the current trends of the past few months with the dollar and thus, gold futures, and eventually, the entire economy. If anyone out there knows of data or another trend that will alter this current one, please forward.

Even if finance ministers at the meeting in February move to attempt to strengthen the dollar, their manipulations will still fall far short of fixing the fundamental problems with the dollar. Most directly, because the ministers can't fix U.S. debt and deficit problems.

BOJ tried $38 billion of intervention in November with little result in stemming the dollar drop. Last year BOJ dumped about $130 billion into dollar-propping that didn't yield a lot of results for them. The yen now stands at 107Y/dollar. A look at the net capital inflows reports for January will show the same. Continued intervention to prop the dollar and weaken the yen will prove just as futile because there is nothing that can be significant enough to stem the current account trade deficit. In fact, the declining dollar will make the trade imbalance worse in the short run as foreign exporters raise prices to offset the drop in the dollar. That's why most analysts see Walmart as not having a very good year in 2004.

Overall, sales of imported items will not drop far enough, in consequence, to offset the increased price. The reason is that foreign imports are now too central to supplying the everyday, as well as many of the luxury, items of American life. There is not much chance of reintroducing American manufacturing to replace the bulk of foreign products with domestic ones. However, manufacturing will see a rise for the ones that are still in business and exporting. That will be one bright spot.

We are a huge net exporter of one thing: DOLLARS. How long do we think the rest of the world will continue to take paper and electronic bits for the hard/durable/ finished goods they sell us? How long would you take somebody's paper that just kept paying you in more paper and never offered you many goods you wanted to buy with those dollars? There is an estimated $100 Trillion afloat in the world today in the form of cash, loans, notes, dollar-denominated securities and various financial instruments. In 1971, before we delinked the dollar from gold, there was less than $100 billion. So we've inflated the currency 1000 times while our economy has only grown a little more than ten times in the same period. That's an inflationary currency debasement of almost incomprehensible proportion. In addition, the U.S. no longer has the ability to manufacture the everyday goods the rest of the world wants or needs, primarily because American workers can't live on $0.85-1.50/hour in wages. More on that below.

The same is true for the price of oil. It will continue to go up in dollar terms. OPEC will continuing to allow the "trading band" for oil to float higher as the dollar depreciates. If the dollar drops a similar amount in 2004 as it did in 2003, the price of oil in dollar terms will have to be close to $40 just to be at the same "value" (in dollar terms) it was at the beginning of 2003. That will no doubt increase the calls from OPEC and elsewhere to price oil sales in euros instead of dollars. The repricing of oil would be absolutely disastrous for the US. We would then have to buy all of our foreign oil in euros. Repricing will cause another dollar drop that will likely send the dollar price over $50/bbl for the US or any dollar linked currency country. That will further cause countries to dump their dollars. Everybody ready for $3.00+/gallon gas?

<<<BTW, I do not agree with him on this aspect, I think $5 p/ gallon is more likely, and I think euros at 1.35 to 1.40 to the dollar will force many OPEC countries to make the switch (not Iraq and Saudi Arabia, but Norway, Venezuela, Russia and Nigeria (& maybe Libya)would be forced to redenomiate or suffer large financial losses...
The only way I could see gold at $900 p/oz would be a full panic of the dollar, or an almost collective switch by OPEC to the euro. I doubt the later would happen unless Bush and necons win in 2004 and reinstate their plans for US global domination via violent regime change - OPEC could pull the rug out from under us in that scenario. Note: This is the *central fallacy* of the neocon movement - that the US can use unilalterial military force for Global Empire and we will not suffer from in economic retaliation by the remaining G8 industrialized countries or OPEC producers. The world simply will not tolerate a militant Hyper Power, and the dollar will be sacrificed if the neocons try to pursue an Imperial Pax Americana. Hopefully Bush and the neocons will not be given a chance to expose the futility of their idealism, but the world community will continue moving away from the dollar in 2004 regardless. I feel much empathy for the 44th President, they will inherit a truly monumental mess both domestically/economy and internationally/diplomacy. -GOREN4>>>(

The US jobs market will not firm enough and in fact continue to decline. The rate of unemployment will likely go up or, at minimum, remain where it is. Real unemployment will continue to rise regardless of what the "official" figure is. The reason for this is that more and more people are simply stopping their look for work. Even though they remain unemployed, those folks then drop off the "official" unemployment rate. More will be added from the continued loss of technical and service jobs 'reappearing' overseas as the outsourcing trend picks up speed.

Also, I've seen no factor reports on employment that account for the contribution of DOD and defense related employment. Many forget, but back in the Reagan administration DOD was added to the employment figures. DOD and defense-related employment now skews the jobs picture the same way deficit spending skews the GDP figures. Most of the defense related hiring is being done on deficit spending, so it's ultimately fake and represents a consumption of wealth, not an addition to wealth. To see real unemployment go down the US needs to add over 200,000 jobs/month. That number is nowhere near in sight.

Using the same criteria as that for the current unemployment number "official" unemployment during the Great Depression would have been about 9%, not 25%, which it was at the peak. Think about that. That might be why every paper on the front range of state XXXXX reports on folks looking for work as saying "there is no work out there to find." The others have simply stopped looking and therefore they are no longer 'unemployed.' From reports I've seen from elsewhere around the country, at least anecdotally the same is true across the country. There are only pockets of hiring going on.

There is another element to the jobs picture that hasn't been fully accounted for either. It has not dawned on most of the American work force yet that for many job categories there is no such thing as the "legal" minimum wage. A software "engineer" in India will do Java or VB programming for $5 an hour or less and be incredibly happy to do it. A Java or VB programmer in the US will "take no less" than $30/hr. Wanna bet how long it takes most Java and VB program work to move out of the US? Steve Ballmer of Microsoft just said that we have to graduate four times more engineers and techs than we currently do to stem the outflow.

He also said that with the extra supply of engineers means they will have to accept 33% less pay ($50,000 vs $75,000 average) to stem the outflow. Gee, how many folks you think are going into engineering once they hear the salaries are going DOWN? What the tech business has to face is that many of those jobs really aren't worth $75,000 to begin with. Also, changes in technology will eliminate a whole category of those jobs in the next decade.

Anyone thinking of a job career field in the US should be thinking only in terms of jobs that physically and geographically can't be done anywhere but here. Or, are so advanced technically that the work force doesn't exist anywhere else. On-site construction work, hospital/medical work that involves direct patient care, service/repair (you can't get your muffler replaced by driving to India, but your car can be manufactured anywhere and delivered), etc. Any information, service, engineering, manufacturing, technical or other job that doesn't have a physical reason to stay planted in the US, likely won't with the advanced and cheap forms of transportation and communication now possible.

Consumer, mortgage and household debt have continued to zoom into the stratosphere. (Gee, could there be a connection here?) All the economists say that trend is unsustainable but is continuing as if there is no tomorrow. Maybe the folks going deep into debt are right. Maybe debt is the place to be when it all crumbles in. However, the housing Stanley Steamer has just about run its course. Low interest rates drove the demand so hard that housing prices are now appreciating out of range. Higher interest rates will put an end to the refi biz and thousands of jobs are about to disappear in that "industry." Analysts in that sector have forecast a 60-80% drop in the mortgage market for 2004. A key indicator of the debt overhang will be a severe spike in the foreclosure and personal bankruptcy rate. That will continue to accelerate. Foreign holders of debt are exceptionally worried about this as they have been supplying most of the "free" credit in the country for the last couple years (remember all those 0% interest deals?). Americans have piled up about $30 Trillion in government and private debt, and it isn't slowing down. That's why they continue to send the dollar down.

So basically there is not much that I can see on the horizon that will fundamentally change the picture on balance of payments deficit, government deficit, debt, trade, employment and hence the dollar decline.

All in all it is not as rosy picture as the "mainstream" economists are painting, I know. I am not an economist, nor pretend to be. I just read and analyze the reports I find from all sources for logic and defendable analysis. From my view, there seems to be enormous cognitive dissonance present in the mainstream crowd. But heck, they're still bullish on a stock market that now looks fundamentally no different than the bull that died in 1999-2000. P/E ratios are no lower, revenues are not tracking up broadly, corporate debt is still at all time highs, there is still a large inventory overhang, durable goods orders are still mediocre...what's up with these folks? The only thing they have to hang their hat on for a 10,000 + DOW is great productivity numbers. Productivity alone can't possibly support a 10,000 DOW, but it seems to be at the moment.

If there is some rabbit someone has to pull out of their hat, now is the time to do it. I wonder how much longer we will believe in the wizards of Wall Street and the Fed this time around. Our parents and grandparents tried this before I think. But then, I could be wrong.

I have been wrong for 20 years. But then, who could have foreseen that the Fed would be willing to debase their currency 100 times more than their economy has grown and folks would keep taking it? Who would've imagined that our federal government principal debt (forget those fanciful "unfunded liabilities") would reach over $6 Trillion and the world would keep buying our debt? Who would've believed we could run annual government and balance of payments deficits of 5% of GDP each stretching as far as the eye can see and the world keeps buying our treasury notes and paper? Who could ever have thought the world would let Americans to go into debt to the tune of $100,000 each for every man woman and child in the country with just a promise to pay somehow, someday? I don't see how anyone could believe such a fanciful scenario, either!

I guess we'll all have to see for ourselves, won't we?

**************

"Fascism should more properly be called corporatism, since it is the
merger of state and corporate power."

- Benito Mussolini

[Frodo]

10. I disagree.

I admit I didn't take the time to read your entire post. But I wanted to deal with your opening issue:

"Sorry, but that is wrong unless you are talking strictly about an agrarian society. *Energy* is the only thing of value in an industrialized society."


In many way you are correct... However, you AREN'T talking about an industrialized society if the dollar disapears as a means of exchange and gold/silver are all people have left. There is not enough gold in the world to use as currency any longer. Whether he realizes it or not, Junker is predicting the swift end of the entire world economic system. In which case, "energy" is little more than a convenience...

[Petrodollar Warfare]

11. We will have to agree to diagree on energy and dollars

<<<Junker is predicting the swift end of the entire world economic system. In which case, "energy" is little more than a convenience...>>

Actually I think junker (and I) may be predicting the accndence of the euro as the World's Reserve Currency. That is what I see happening, and that is *precisely* what the Bush/neocon administration fears the most. It was the emergence of a "ppetroeuro" and I susopect realization re Peak Oil that motivated this administration to launch a unilateral war in Iraq circa 2003 (please read my earlier link/post for elaboration). Remember 100 years ago (1904) if you would have publically stated that the Sterling Pound would be replaced by the lowly US dollar as the preferred International Reserves currency you would have been laughed out of the room and dismissed as a kook. Same applies today re the euro...

However, the British debts of WWI and WII and the growth of the US into a (non-bombed out) manufacturing powerhouse paved the way for the dollar to replace the Sterling Pound as the World Reserve Currency. What ever currency oil is denomiated in will become the "de facto" World Reserve Currency b/c all nation states require this substance. That is what gives the dollar it's present liquidity, along with the fact that IMF loans are also in dollars.

I do agree that their is not enough gold or silver to support the world economy, but the demand for oil remains. Think about it this way, the dollar was a true fiat currency from 1971 (when Nixon broke the gold link) until 1974, when the US convinced Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars only (they had been dicussing a basket of currencies including the D-mark, yen, franc, etc). Since 1974 the dollar has been an *oil-backed" currency, and since the demand curve for oil is exponential, and oil production increasing, our ability to borrow dollars is also *almost* without limit. However, I think we are approaching the limit. As for dollars and energy, lets just hope a graduated, controlled process takes place (as will be discussed in my forthcoming book).

My hope is a dual OPEC transactions currecny of the dollar and euro at parity valuation, and within a "trading ban" ie 1:1. Eventually a third reserve currency option may be required in the form of a yuan/yen currency. In the end, in order to forstall of global deflatinary period of considerable contraction, we need *three* engines for global growth: the US, EU and East Asia. How we get their is the trick...but compromise on energy and the denomination of energy/oil is still the key to making this happen.

PS: Please read my whole post and the earlier link that I provided in the above post, then we can have further discourse, thanks!

[aneerkoinos]

12. Going Pythian

OK, since Junker started it, I'll join the game of divining from the guts. The Titanic of US Economy sinks majestically, with the band playing until the end, not in a sudden splash. Gold will hit $1000 in January 2005, not this year. It will not stop at $1000 next year or the following. This January will be interesting, watch more rumours, talk and intensifying diplomacy as February OPEC meating comes closer. Just read somewhere Saudi's and Russians are having high level meatings again. Nothing is decided, OPEC is divided on currency issue, what happens will be much affected by currency trends in January.

Here comes my bold guess of the big deal of February: Russia will join the cartel in practice or perhaps even officially, OPEC+Russia will compromise on the currency issue and choose currency basket for nominal oil currency. The effect of this decision for dollar and US economy is practically same as switching to euro, devastating - but not necessarily immediately.

[slothrop]

13. a more accurate description

The problem will not be the price of gold, regardless of the predictions 500/1000 etc. The problem will be what is the price of oil? Cheap energy is the foundation of the current system, from slavery to oil. What will be the response to expensive oil? How will those veggies make it into Manhattan, how will they be grown?

[kalian]

30. I foresee that we will return to our "roots"....

essentially, local farmers, i.e., those that are located in the
peripheries of cities and towns will once again bear the burden.
Corporate farms will collapse...for obvious reasons...

It will be a tumultous time though...riots for sure especially as
people begin to release that their local Wally Mart won't be
bringing in fresh food stuffs.

I for one won't have any problems...I know how to live off the land.
Been hunting deer and elk since I was a youngster... I can learn how
to farm as well. IMHO, it will feel good to work for the common
good of the town, etc. People need to relearn their roots...and those
that don't...well...let's just say that the winters can be harsh...

[mhr]

16. For Those Interested In Peak Oil, Try These Links

Websites of interest include:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Home.html
http://www.oilcrash.com/
http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk/
http://www.asponews.org
http://www.gulland.ca/depletion/depletion.htm
http://www.dieoff.org/
http://www.oilanalytics.org/
http://www.greatchange.org/
http://www.oilcrisis.com/
http://www.after-oil.co.uk/
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
http://hubbert.mines.edu
http://www.museletter.com/archive/cia-oil.html

Energy Resources
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/

Alas Babylon
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/AlasBabylon/

Running on Empty
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/RunningOnEmpty2/

[kalian]

29. Quite true what you state there....

"land and water"....what provides sustenance for the masses.
Yes, we might be in and "industrialized" country but please remember
that roughly 2/3s of the rest of the world don't even have running
water nor electricity...ergo, they don't have much to lose if oil
runs out, no?

El_Gato's comments rings quite true...people that have land AND
water will be the wealthy ones. Can't eat gold...nor can you continue
to piss away the oil. Land and water can be utilized...fields can
be sown.

Reminds me...I have to continue looking for land to buy...

[Frodo]

2. In the month of Jan we will see 900 dollars per ounce gold.

You got one right!


In the month of January 2021.

We will see global interest rates, including those in the US, shoot upwards on a trend that will shock most people.

Unlikely - Europe is likely to see LOWER rates this month.

[junker]

14. wrong, it will be this jan and that is based on 1980 history

in jan (*actually started in nov 79 when gold traded at 395.15 intraday) of 1980, gold went from 400 to over 800 in less than 28 trading days. It will do so again this Jan and may well hit over 1000 an ounce intra-day.

Yes. The dollar is dying as a reserve currency. It cannot be propped up any longer. It is debt saturated and must either die (we can't service the debt) or shed the debt (repudiation). Likely it will die as the Fed is too proud to repudiate.

Pay attention now, the index that I spoke of as reaching 70 is not the one shown at kitco or ino. On that one we will plunge as we drop below 80. It is currently at 86.12 and is down .80 on the day.

The dollar continues to drop at the rate of between three tenths and one percent per day.

The american housing market is showing decreases in new applications for mortgages running at 55 per cent down over last year.
New house sales are running down 39 per cent per year and the rate of retrench is accellerating.
Refi's are off 80 per cent over the peak of this past summer.

We have reached a point where within months, the number of layoffs will escalate rapidly as businesses start to fail when their financing blows up.

Next up will be the "sudden" Interest Rate Crisis. This will develop over this next week and into the week after. Not FED interest rates as they have lost control as of today, but rather what is known as long bond rates.

[Frodo]

15. I'd be happy to bet you $1,000 on that.

To be paid in three years.

If I'm right... I get $1,000. If YOU'RE right? $1,000 will be no big loss to me. Seems like a win-win situation?

Let's look at 1980... What similarities do you see to today's markets? Massive deficit spending b y the fed was not an issue in 1979 (it began two years later and the dollar did NOT collapse). Inflation was in the double digits and interest rates on mortgages were 13-14-15% (just going by memory here). If mortgages skyrocket from here they will still be incredibly cheap by comparison. Economic growth was pawltry to non-existent, unemployment was much higher. Was the dollar "dying as a reserve currency" in 1980?

There is no relationship between the two. You might as well state that shrub will be assasinated next week because a president has been assasinated in the past. Zero credibility.

Of course mortgage applications are down. It doesn't take a diploma in mortgage lending (which I have) to say that re-fi activity dries up with increasing rates (espectially when it is re-re-re-fi activity). The rest of that point is ridiculous. Home sales and Home starts are still at record high levels, NOT "down 39%"

I've been involved in commercial financing for over a decade... believe me when I tell you that financing does not "blow up" with a few basis-point/day moves in interest rates.

The dollar falling at .3%-1% per day is NOT evidence that it will fall 3% per day EVERY day the market is open for the next month. "Bad" is not the "leading indicator" for "worst ever".

[cosmicaug]

25. Indices.

junker wrote:

Pay attention now, the index that I spoke of as reaching 70 is not the one shown at kitco or ino. On that one we will plunge as we drop below 80. It is currently at 86.12 and is down .80 on the day.

I'm paying attention now. What is this index and where can it be found (or how does one calculate it?)?

By the way, the $900/oz. price for gold would be the one listed at kitco, right?

[northzax]

3. well darn, don't you paint a rosy picture

I sure hope you have liquidated everything you own and bought gold, right?

[Caution]

4. $900/ounce?

Do you own a gold mine or something? The only thing which could bring about that pricing for gold would be total global economic collapse and if that were to happen, the presidential election would pretty much not matter.

[Frodo]

5. That's the point.

He IS predicting global economic collapse.

[Caution]

6. I know...

but he's referring to it as a talking point for the next election. The type of collapse he is predicting would have much worse consequences than that of the 30's. I'm saying it really wouldnt matter who becomes President after something like what he is describing.

[Frodo]

7. Right. But I don't believe him.

If he REALLY believed it, he wouldn't be anywhere near a computer.

He'd be holed up with five year's supply of food and water WAAAY up in the mountains. He'd be armed like a militia group.

And, as was hinted at in an earlier reply (#1)... he would NOT own lots of gold. Gold is STILL just a medium for exchange, it's more tangible than fiat currency, but NOT as usefull as barter goods in the type of collapse he envisions. If it DOES come to pass, a can of Spam is going to be worth more than the same weight of gold.

[bemildred]

8. I have been thinking that guns & ammo would be the best investment

in that scenario, assuming you decide to stick around for the show.

[kalian]

17. I have plenty of guns AND ammo....

and AMMO will be the currency that everyone will be after. ;)

[cosmicaug]

24. Holed up.

Frodo wrote:

If he REALLY believed it, he wouldn't be anywhere near a computer.

He'd be holed up with five year's supply of food and water WAAAY up in the mountains. He'd be armed like a militia group.

Who says he isn't? :-)

[kalian]

26. That's right....

he could be already holed up somewhere and posts via a 56k modem.
Who knows... :shrug:

[abelenkpe]

36. So you feel everything is running smoothly?

Just wondering since you seem to be opposing the doom and gloom scenario. Do you feel the market and dollar will rise and unemployment go down?

[Frodo]

37. This is not a binary equation.

Thre are not just two possibilities: "worst economy in history, world financial system in collapse" and "Bush is the second comming, US economy brightest ever".

None of the current conditions are the "worst ever", nor are the majority of the "what if THIS happens" scenarios likely to come true OR, even if they come to pass, likely to do the amount of damage credited to them.

[kalian]

18. I like your final sentence....

for some odd reason it rings so damned true.

[rapier]

19. Sheesh

Damn man. In November it was 10 days as I recall till the sky fell.

I'll grant that things are growing more unstable but look at the result. Stocks are melting up. The bubble is reigniting. There is no objective way to say when it will end, and I include terms of years. Greenspan et al's stupendous liquidity machine has grabbed hold of the most important thing in the world, stock asset values. I can think of no event internal nor external to the markets which would make them fall now.

Every 'crisis' causes more melt up. Look at Parmalat last week. No problem. Iraq, nobody gives a f*#@. Semi failed bond auctions, who cares? Crummy Christmas retail sales? The truth there for all to see, nobody cares to see it. GM losing $2500 on every sale, it's rally time. because they borrowed $4 billion to pour into stocks, and help inflate stocks further. $1 trillion dollars in US Treasury bonds owned by foreign central banks held in account by the Fed being decimated by the double whammy of bonds and the dollar falling. So what? Whats a few tens of billions lost every week among friends, especially if their citizens don't notice?

Gold and the CRB at 15 year highs. Greenspan said Saturday that inflation was "nonexistent". You want to dispute the maestro? Even objetive reality as proclaimed by the markets themselves is put into the memory hole.

We are living in extraordiary times but don't pretend you can say when they will end.

[54anickel]

20. Sounding a little frustrated tonight. It's all driving you just a bit

batty isn't it?

[rapier]

21. notes

Nothing different than since Oct. 02 really. I'm just here to watch the show.

The money being racked up by the theives and idiots, who imagine themselves smart doesn't bother me all that much. That's been going on since forever. That it is being done with knowlege aforethougth and intent by the government does get my goat. What really gets me is that if this thing contines to succed, succed on their terms at least, that being the endless inflation of assets, is suggests to me the end of democracy and free markets.

Two years ago I said I would not be at all surprised if tribes of homelss were wandering the land, controlled by Homeland Security of course, and the Dow at 25,000. That is the trend

[54anickel]

22. I hear ya. Sometimes it's hard to sit back and watch the show without

wanting to holler to the world, "YOU IDIOTS".
It's truly depressing sometimes. But they say every cloud has a silver lining, or something to that effect.
It's when things get really bad that some of the greatest changes for the better come.
At least, that's the thought that keeps me going.
Take Care

[kalian]

28. Similar thoughts here as well...

but then again, you can't push the sheeple, aka "the herd" once they
get started down their path...its very tough to do and even more
so nowadays that the media is controlled by the corporations that
want to fleece them and then enslave them.

Sigh...what must happen will happen...

[bemildred]

23. I found a guy that predicts Dow 35000 by 2008,

and then the crash. I think watching the show and
making a buck if you can is a good approach, it's when
you start to think that you know what's going on and
that you really understand how it works that you are in
the most danger.

I think betting against the dollar, and hence being in
foreign stuff and gold, and betting on inflation not too
far down the road is all good. But there is nothing to stop
another modest size stock bubble either. We have a "faith-
based" economy.

[kalian]

27. There's no doubt that another stock market bubble is being inflated...

we have the Fed to thank for that and the econ pundits with their
pom-poms. The key issue here is that people are becoming desperate
and they NEED to make money one way or another. This is a suckers'
rally...and many people are going to get fleeced.

Its not going to be a pretty sight but then again, the current
economic condition isn't all that cute to look at either.

For some odd reason, when this year started I got a bad gut feeling
that something wicked this way comes...

[bemildred]

31. No, it's not going to be a pretty sight.

The most interesting question, to my mind, at this point
is whether they will be able to string things along until
after the election. A lot depends on what all those people
with no jobs do on election day. They may well manage to
hot-wire the economy and stock market one more time, but they
won't fix the jobs issue any time soon, and they won't fix the
dollar.

[kalian]

32. Doesn't really matter....

things get way out of wack...blam! Martial Law...
Any questions...?

[bemildred]

33. They don't have the wherewithal to pull that off.

They have already fucked the military raw and Americans
have guns, lots of them, and there is already rebellion
in the wind. Not that these bozos would not give it a shot.

[kalian]

34. Well...I would hope that you are correct....

but fear has an interesting effect on the masses. Please also
remember that in Nazi Germany, as well as in Soviet Russia, it was
the MINORITY that controlled the majority. Once you can no longer
trust you next door neighbor, then you find yourself "alone" and
"afraid".
All they need to do is manipulate the "fear" and that's it...they
will control...

[bemildred]

35. Me too.

God knows they are trying to turn us into sheep.
But I don't know that we are there yet. I remember
VietNam, and we had some fairly impressive anti-war demos.
We are much more heterogeous and much less used to unthinking
obedience than the Germans or the Russians of those times, the
class system is much less well developed here.

Still predicting things is a mugs game. I suppose vigilance
is the price of freedom and all that.

[toddzilla]

38. kick

can't help it..

[brokensymmetry]

40. Ouch!

Remind me not to annoy YOU! :)

[Frodo]

41. Annoy him??

Just don't go out on a limb and predict the demise of the world economic system and then set a date a few weeks away. You should be fine.

:-)

Go out on that limb that can barely hold the catepillar making his cocoon and you should expect people to point it out to you when it breaks.

[tritsofme]

39. Wow, some foresight you had there. nt