Mortgage industry assn says industy to lose 65 thousand jobs in 04

[junker]

This is from the enemy (forbes mag, though I once was feature in the mag years ago, but that was another life in another time...)

here is link, well worth reading. Basically the Mortgage Bankers Assn is being quoted on the light side of their projections. The British analoge expects property values to fall over 1/3 in britain and USofA starting in mid summer.


http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/22/rtr1223493.html

WASHINGTON, Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage lenders expect business to drop sharply this year from record highs in 2003 despite a recent refinancing boomlet as mortgage interest rates fall to 6-month lows, a trade association said on Thursday.

Slowing business will cause lenders to shed around 65,000 jobs, Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Douglas Duncan said at a briefing. Employment in the industry peaked at near 435,000 during the crest of the refinancing wave in the middle of last year, he said.


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much more at link. The report actually says between 65k and 190K jobs are at risk in this year alone. Further, they expect over half of all mortgages workers to have left the industry by end of 05. That would be a further 100thousand people losing jobs.

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Business for mortgages is so slow up here in PNW that we have had 4 regional mortgage brokers fold their tents and blow the area.

[DevilsAdvocate2]

1. I work in the industry

And it has been slowing down recently. I believe this is more indicative of the business cycle running its course more than anything else. Rates were so low for so long that anyone who wanted to refinance already has. In addition, people who were borderline a few years ago were easier to approve when the rates dropped, so most people who had any inclination to buy a house did. It'll take 10-15 years to rebuild the demand that was pent up during this last boom. Interest rates will have to have time to rise, lots of people buy homes, then the rates fall and people once again be able to benefit from refinancing.

[Frodo]

3. That's interesting. maybe you're in a slow town?

The Mortgage Bankers Association just raised their purchase index to an all-time high and their refi index to the highest it's been since August of last year.

[krkaufman]

2. British quote..??

Where's the British quote of "property values to fall over 1/3 in britain and USofA starting in mid summer" from?

This quote begs confirmation, but it isn't mentioned in the Forbes article.