Oracles of Doom: They always knew the economy would collapse. What do they think will happen next?

[RedEarth]

FORTUNE TELLER
Nouriel Roubini
NYU business professor; chairman of RGE Monitor



TRACK RECORD
Predicted this year’s crisis in 2006, pointing to a housing bust, oil shocks, and interest-rate increases.



CURRENT PREDICTION
“It’s becoming a global recession. I expect it to be the worst U.S. recession of the last 50 years. I expect a cumulative fall in output from the peak of 4 percent and the unemployment rate going all the way to 9 percent.”


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FORTUNE TELLER
Peter Schiff
President of Euro Pacific Capital



TRACK RECORD
Published Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse in February 2007; star of YouTube video “Peter Schiff Was Right 2006–2007.”



CURRENT PREDICTION
“I predicted that the economy would collapse. The bigger risk I saw was the government’s attempt to solve the problem by doing exactly what they’re now doing. They’re going to create another Great Depression, but worse, because the cost of living will go through the roof.”


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FORTUNE TELLER
Richard Russell
Founder of the Dow Theory Letters



TRACK RECORD
Predicted bottom of 1974 bear market; exited market before crashes in 1987 and 2000.



CURRENT PREDICTION
“As long as we can hold the Dow above 7,470, I think the situation is hopeful. That’s the halfway level from when the boom market started in 1982 and when it ended in 2007. My guess is that it will break that level. Most bear markets have wiped out more than 50 percent of a bull market.”


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FORTUNE TELLER
Barry Ritholtz
CEO and equity-research director of Fusion IQ; blogger at the Big Picture



TRACK RECORD
Predicted downturn last year.



CURRENT PREDICTION
“In March, the first-quarter numbers start coming out, and that’s potentially a problem. It’s just going to be an issue of dealing with the market. If earnings continue to drop and you end up with multiple contractions, that basically takes you to a really bad, ugly place, which is an S&P at 400 or 500. I don’t think that’s likely, but it’s certainly possible.”


http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/52772/

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. 9%?

:rofl:

[girl gone mad]

4. "All the way"..

to 9%.

If I'm not mistaken, Roubini's gotten more negative over the last few days. I do sense he tries to reign it in and he detests being labeled "Dr. Doom". He really wasn't a perma-bear, he was just a bit early in calling the crisis.

[Mike 03]

2. I've followed a few "oracles" since the early part of the decade

and they have been dangerously spot-on:

Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley
Doug Noland at Prudent Bear
Bill Gross at PIMCO (although, he equivocates)
Paul Krugman, who I was just going to write a post about
and most of all Richard Duncan, author of the greatest book nobody read: "The Dollar Crisis"

I don't know what they say we should do next.
They sound pessimistic and confounded.

Throw a HUGE stimulus at it, but it has to be a one-shot deal, and it has to be so huge that it can reverse market sentiment towards the positive.

[JDPriestly]

3. Obama will convince the Saudis and Chinese that they should

support investment in alternative energy because it is in their interest even more than it is in ours, and the economy will start moving again in much more sustainable direction to the benefit of the whole world.