An amateur doomer walks his dog

[GliderGuider]

In a poll on the 2009 economy in GD: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4698698&mesg_id=4701614

[Warpy]

1. Thank you for pointing that post out

Much of what he says will happen will happen.

Face it, although you might find it gloomy beyond tolerance, the pursuit of conservative economic policies by both parties over the last 40 years has crashed this economy--again.

You can either plan for the worst and adapt to it if it happens or you can go along in a haze of economic invulnerability and get crushed.

Your choice.

[mikita]

2. Thanks GG ... can't disagree on any point...

sometimes I wish I were younger so I'd have more energy to face what's coming,

and other times, I wish I were already gone.....

At least I have no kids, figured THAT much out in the late 60's.


(accidentally posted this in GD -- meant to put it here) :airhead:

[JackRiddler]

3. I pretty much see the full sequence you project...

up to the next oil spike. This is not entirely clear that we're at the famous capacity limit.

Thanks for some clear-eyed thinking.

[GliderGuider]

4. We hit peak oil 3 years ago. Here's a very good summary of our situation

The Coming Oil Train Wreck

The global oil depletion crisis will last much longer than the current credit crisis, severe as that may be. Credit can be created, and savings can be rebuilt over time. Sadly, oil, created over millions of years, is finite. Oil is a one-time gift that will likely be wrapping up its brief lifespan as an energy source some time late this century. The problems begin, however, when global oil production peaks, and evidence is building that the peak may have occurred in 2005. The average age of the top 20 oil fields in the world is now 59 years.



The red line (oil prices) is now considerably lower (approximately $40 a barrel for the February contract), and if the trend follows, domestic investment (blue line) will be much lower in 2009. This does not bode well for future supply.

Mexico- the first domino to fall?

As of May 2005, Cantarell was producing 2.2 million barrels of oil per day (65% of total Mexican production). Today the figure is roughly 900,000 barrels per day. The most troubling aspect is that the decline rate is accelerating, estimated at 2.5% per month currently, or 30% annually.

According to Matt Simmons, by the end of 2009, Mexico will no longer be an oil exporter. If Simmons is correct, it will be very difficult to replace the oil revenue that has supported 40% of the Mexican budget.