because I agree, people could always use more good news, and I salute your efforts with this regard. That being said, I value facts over hope when it comes to markets. I know you aren't trying to tell us the economy will recover in a few months, just rather some small hope you have for this outcome, but I don't see any such sunshine.
Here is the reference in the post... I don't know where you got your 2% number...
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/02/baltic-dry-index-le... http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htmThis is what I am talking of.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1258270/baltic_dry_index_falls_93.html?cat=3">The Baltic Dry Index Falls 93% since its high of 11,000 just a few months earlier.
Your number is technically correct, that since the low of 700 or so in December, that the slight rally the BDI has undergone has effectively "doubled the index since December," but that doesn't mean much when you look at how far down it already was (it now sits around 1300, again from the usual 11,000 in June). I assume you know what the BDI is, so I won't go into that, but you don't really talk of what factors could be causing the BDI to marginally rise. My theory is gasoline prices have increased since December (which as anyone can tell you, they have). If it costs them more to fill their tankers up with oil to transport the goods, they will charge you more to ship the goods- which mean the BDI goes up, considering the BDI is the "cost of shipping goods" effectively.
Walmart is one of the few exceptions among retail outlook, because they tailor their products to be affordable. This is exactly what would do well in a recession, if Wal-Mart was doing poorly we should all be shitting bricks honestly. In 1930, the year after the stock market crash, Campbell's Soup was the only stock to end the year on the positive. This is what I would expect from certain companies that build themselves around inexpensive or thrifty goods. The retail market is your best bet for finding future good news, if you look at a category-by-category job loss index since last year, retail has lost the least (out of the big three: manufacturing, retail, and construction). The bright spots are few and far between, and I applaud you bringing these to light, though!
The February positive consumer confidence outlook is a bit misleading, I believe. You can only keep the public gloom and doomed for so long before they start becoming desensitized, for one, but also what happened in January that might give much of the country a "hopeful" outlook? January 20th, In my view, is a big part of this rise, me thinks. But, there is nothing wrong with such a shallow reason, the public is fickle and ill-informed in general- consumer confidence polls are just another example of this. No consumer confidence polls showed any discernible movement downard until Lehman Brothers fell, yet the core of our financial markets were rotting slowly away for a good year and a half (at least!).
The biggest thing your posts omits is the depressed housing market, and the beginning of the second real estate meltdown that is currently underway: CRE. It is quite understandable though; there just isn't any positive data coming out of these sectors. Homes are overbuilt, you have thousands of foreclosures a day, and it isn't getting any better. The FDIC's efforts to curtail foreclosures with "cram downs" has resulted in 6/10 federal judge-adjusted mortgages falling back into delinquency- I suppose we can tote a "40% success ratio!" on these, from a glass-half-full perspective! Maybe there is hope to be had on that, but these cram downs are quite time consuming, and as of now, not very effective.
The CRE market is a totally different animal, and one I have no answer for. Developers, many whom bought at the height of this hysteria are shit out of luck, unable to re-fi property that they are more than likely upside down on, and unable to find any tenets to lease to at even close to what they paid for the property- if they can find tenets at all! The re-fi period for CRE is usually every 5 years, and it is likely that even someone who didn't buy at the height of the market will get screwed because there won't be many banks willing to lend to you this time around! This article is ominous, to say the least:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUxk2VzFAWjUMoody’s Investors Service is reviewing the ratings of $302.6 billion in commercial mortgage-backed securities as real-estate values drop and property owners fall behind on payments.
The review encompasses 52 percent of outstanding U.S. commercial mortgage-backed debt ranked by Moody’s ...
And so it begins for CMBS. First the reviews, then the downgrades, followed by the bank write-downs, and then more reviews... rinse and repeat until finally: the realized losses, and more bank failures. Eight banks gone so far this year, and counting.
http://www.cbre.com/USA/Research/Market+Reports/US+Vacancy+Reports/default.htmThe National office vacancy rate increased to 14.7% in the fourth quarter 2008 from 14.1% in the previous quarter and from 12.8% a year ago.
Certain markets, vacancies are more problematic than others. In San Diego, for example, the vacancy rate is reportedly at 19.1%, New York is slightly under 18%, etc.
I hope you can find some good news out of my points!
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