We are facing a Depression that will last 23-26 years.

[4dsc]

For what its worth.. I don't know who Martin Armstrong is but he as written a very good article here..

We are facing a Depression that will last 23-26 years. The response of government is going to seal our fate because they cannot learn from the past and will make the same mistakes that every politician has made before them. Even if the Dow Industrials make new highs next week (impossible), the Depression is unstoppable with current models and tools.

(warning pdf)
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf

[havocmom]

1. And the last of a generation who can recall unions and worker rights will be dead by then

Then, the 1% will have workers who have only known desperation and abuse, thereby thinking that is the natural order of things.

[babylonsister]

2. I wonder if Armstrong is this crook...I wouldn't put too much merit

in what he says. And can one contribute articles from jail?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

Martin Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. Indicted in 1999 on charges of bilking Japanese investors, he spent 7 years jailed for contempt of court before finally pleading guilty in 2007, and is now serving a 5 year sentence for conspiracy to commit fraud <1>. .

Career

As a teenager, Armstrong worked at a rare stamp and coin dealership, became a millionaire at age 15, and opened his own store at age 21. After studying historical gold prices, he developed a cyclical theory <2> of commodity prices and began a company, Economic Consultants of Princeton. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed multiple complaints about this company, finding that it failed to maintain adequate records, misstated performance results, and was not properly registered. <3>. During this time, Armstrong continued to collect gold and antiquities, which would later become a major bone of contention with the New York State justice system.

Armstrong was a frequent contributor to academic journals and was often sought for comment on financial topics. <4>. As an investor, he claims that his market timing approach predicted the high-water mark of the Nikkei in 1989 months ahead of time, and also the July 20, 1998, high in the U.S. equities market.

In 1981, he formed Princeton Economics, and in 1998, he established a hedge fund in partnership with Magnum Global Investments. [

[RedEarth]

7. Same guy.... here's a little more on him

I have previously written about Martin Armstrong, the controversial market analyst who correctly predicted the 1987 crash, the top of the Japanese market, and many other market events. Many market timers think that Armstrong is one of the very best. On the other hand, he's in jail for fraud and an alleged Ponzi scheme. So I'm not sure whether Armstrong is a genius or a crank.


Armstrong has just written a cheery essay called "The Coming Great Depression. Why Government Is Powerless". In it, Armstrong forecasts:

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/02/now-thats-depressing-depression-will.html

[TheWatcher]

34. I wonder what the true believers will do when there are no more messengers left to shoot

And they have no choice but to face reality.

::Now Sit back and watch the snarky, insulting reply::

[liberal N proud]

3. It would not be a depression after that many years

Rather it would become the permanent state of the economy.

Recessions and depressions have a beginning and an end.

[L0oniX]

4. They are giving all of our money to the people who are screwing us and nothing to ...

those who are losing their jobs and homes. They reward the corporations that out source our jobs and offer us a job in the military killing so they can profit from their war machines. The people are cowards and sheepish and will not revolt against the rich congressmen and senators and media talking heads who are all in the back pockets of the super rich. I only see a small group who have done something which is to find out where these asscarrots live and surround their homes with enough people protesting to scare the hell out of them. Really, these rich asscarrots should be kicked out of our country for what they have done. They are all sociopaths and don't deserve to have us as customers and we just let them all get away with this massive theft of our money and jobs. As far as I am concerned the majority of our elected servants are my enemies and I am not so sure that Obama is not with them in this hand off to the rich ...the rich who caused this problem to begin with ...and they get rewarded for it ...it makes me mad as hell.

[Cassandra]

5. This Martin Armstrong?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

"Martin Armstrong is the former chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. Indicted in 1999 on charges of bilking Japanese investors, he spent 7 years jailed for contempt of court before finally pleading guilty in 2007, and is now serving a 5 year sentence for conspiracy to commit fraud"

I'll agree with him about the lifting of the usury laws but I think he wanders off after that.

[lostnotforgotten]

6. Yes - I Am Tending To Agree - The Bailout / Stimulus Will Lead To Massive Inflation

We will most likely have a lost decade, or more, like the Japanese in the 90s.

[The Brethren]

27. Agreed as well.

As one friend put it -- 'it ain't going to be pretty".

[HereSince1628]

8. No one saw this coming, but everyone knows where it is going?

fascinating. Anyone else doubt whether the prognosticators have actually had a turn around in the credibility of their musings?

Why does so much of this stuff come across as info-tainment for apocolypsoholics.

[4dsc]

9. Many people saw this coming...

Its the magnitude of the crash they couldn't predict..

I like his statement here: The Stock Market is a mere reflection of the economy like looking at yourself in a mirror. It is not the economy and does not even provide a reliable forecasting tool of what is to come economically.

It reminds me of the nightly new across this country that make it a point to show how the DOW and other markets are fairing. As if they are indicator of the economy.. Mr Martin clearly states if not a reflection of the economy.. Thoughts??

[HereSince1628]

11. Many people say they saw it coming, but on close inspection

they saw their own anxieties.


No one really "saw" Sept 14-20th with any clarity, although some folks were clearly concerned since the markets and productivity had begun to sink 9 months earlier.

There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that the prognosticators have awoken from a slumber, sobered up from a drunk, or in any other way had their crystal balls retuned so that they can be trusted anymore about the coming future than they were about predicting the present and recent past.

Realistically, what we are left with is myriad commercial media sources producing info-tainment to an audience that they hope will be acccepting.
As a kid I sat in the late 1950's and read my father's Popular Science magazines predicting helocopters in everyone's driveways and fusion reactors turning garbage into waste, all by 1984. The fantasies told in those old mags are really qualitativly the same as this stuff. It was entertainment for folks with an interest. It sold advertising, it made people careers etc, but it didn't come close to panning out any truth nuggets.

Why is it so hard to accept that no one really has any predictive credibility of how the financial/economic future will be 25 years from now. Are we so flumuxed with fear of the unknown that we cannot embrace the reality of uncertainty?

[girl gone mad]

21. Nope, you're simply wrong.

Tons of people saw it coming. The credit bubble and the impending collapse were written about all over economic blogs for years, for example. Books were written, even documentaries made warning people. Some investors actually profited off of events because they saw it coming and positioned themselves correctly.

If you didn't have any sense that something was going wrong, I've got to say, you were listening to the wrong people.

[notesdev]

28. Au contraire

There are a lot of folks on the record going back years, telling people this would happen. You got http://www.globaleconomicanalysis.com>Mish Shedlock, for example, who has been uncannily accurate - even with respect to things like how the Fed would choose to act, and how the market would respond. You've got http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsC2k9opOP0&feature=channel>Karl Denninger narrating in real time as it was happening. They weren't even close to alone. They just didn't get primo spots on CNBC or columns in the Wall Street Jounal.

[dixiegrrrrl]

30. And Max Keiser, who moved to Paris ( smart man)

and Jim rogers, who moved to Asia a few years ago, saying "America is finished".

Thankfully, they kept blogging and talking and trying to warn us.

Thankfully, a few of us listened in time.

Unfortunately, they did not get MSM attention.
Unfortunately, not enough people got to hear them.

[grasswire]

29. thank you for your correct use of "myriad"

:-)

[northernlights]

32. the FBI saw it coming

they warned about the mortgage fraud a while back, and how it would potentially trash the economy.

[slipslidingaway]

15. Hurrying here but...

I agree many saw this coming, one example.

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2007archives/moaug07.htm

August 2007

"...As we promised, trying to keep it short, there you have it. Although we believe each individual chart tells its own story, our main point in this discussion is that collectively, these relationships represent multi-year or multi-decade trend breaks for now. They are now occurring in simultaneous fashion. Just a coincidence? We think not. Moreover, we suggest an important need for continual monitoring as these trends quite similarly hug trends in powerful demographic changes. Could it really be that as the boomers push near and into retirement, what has been their dramatic impact on asset inflation through continual expansion in household leverage is changing? We believe this is indeed the primary question and message to continue to monitor in these relationships. As we’ve suggested many a time, the credit cycle is the key. And this is a slice of the broader credit cycle as it applies to households. Households key to longer-term consumption trends important to both the US domestic and many a foreign exporting economy..."

[akwapez]

10. Actually a lot of people saw this coming.....

and unfortunately, the ones who did see this coming are also the ones who are predicting that it will get much, MUCH worse.

[HereSince1628]

12. PLease provide a link to people who predicted market movement Sept 12-Sept 28 2008

There were certainly bulls and bears in front of those dates, but I haven't heard of a single person who pulled off a short call that turned Sept 18th into a gold mine.

If there are enough predictions some of them are bound to seem sort of right in retrospect.

Believing that someone can predict today the state of the economy of the US in mid-February 2033 is like believing in Santa Claus...childishly comforting, especially if you want to believe you've got a pony coming.

[Pale Blue Dot]

13. There were plenty here that saw a collapse as inevitable.

While it may be true that no one predicted the exact date, that's a straw man argument. I warned about this publicly and on DU a year ago. Did I predict the exact events in September? No - in part because we continually underestimated the ability of the financial sector and the government to find ways to hide and put off the problem. Here's another prediction:

There has nothing that has fundamentally changed in the economy from six months ago. In fact, things are worse and no one has even begun to TALK about the fundamental problems that caused this mess. So I predict things are about to get much, much worse. Do I have the exact date? No. That will be useful for you so that six months from now you can claim that no one predicted that, either.

[HereSince1628]

16. Even if we say, the US banking system will collapse in the 4th quarter no one predicted it.

I think a prediction requires some limited timeframe I don't recall any of that. I think a prediction also must anticipate with some precision an observable event. By and large the punditry, government and the derivatives industry that was up to its ass in it didn't see it until the wave was breaking on top of them. That was not so much a prediction as it was a report of the weather that day. There were some postings about collapse of the US dollar in spring of 2008. There was concern about the drag of the subprime mortgage industry on the economy last winder and into spring, but I can't recall anyone who actually made a prediction about it precipitating domestic and international banking failures.

I certainly would admit that here on DU there have been too many posts to count about how things were, are, and will be falling apart and how screwed we were, are and will be. And even though there were some apocalyptic predictions, spring had a flurry on the collapse of the dollar and coming recession...but I can't remember any DU'er who proposed that the world banking system was about to collapse due to the subprime mortgage crisis--Of course, the DU'ers that predicted a crash in consumer spending dues to last summers fuel prices may turn out to be right about their predictions of 3rd and 4th quarter contraction, and it may turn out, and I suspect it will, that more than a handful of things brought together a perfect storm.

[sendero]

17. Get real..

... nobody predicts anything with that narrow a time frame. Plenty of people predicted the housing bust which is at the nexus of this entire mess and if you don't know who they are you that's your deficit.

As for the exact number of years also please get a clue. Here's the point you seem to wish to miss. THIS IS NOT A 2 YEAR RECESSION.

Whether it is 3, 5, 10 or 20 the next effect is about the same and THAT IS WHAT IT IS GOING TO BE.

[notesdev]

20. It's not the specific date that is important

as the inevitability of the event.

I'm sure the precise timing of the event was effected by the various interventions and manipulations that our government and their banker friends have perfected over the years.

[northernlights]

44. you're confusing the stock market

with the economy. They are not the same thing. Not even close.

[barb162]

19. I remember several people predicting this mess before it actually

broke out in the open. I can't remember how many dozens of times I remember reading about the sub prime mortgages readjusting and the huge numbers of foreclosures were predicted, that Fannie and Freddie were a mess, we all knew aboiut the massive debt couldn't increase forever, etc., all before it happened.

[slipslidingaway]

14. I started reading this last week but never finished...

so when I saw the 23-26 year depression I thought it was most likely the recent Armstrong article.

I've known for quite some time that he has been in prison and have seen the chart of his Economic Model posted for several years...so thanks for opening the disussion.

Sandspring has discussed Armstrong and there is a recent post at this website FWIW.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=100108&mode=linearplus

http://seekingalpha.com/article/103613-on-martin-armstrong-s-it-s-just-time

"I have had the privilege of reviewing and sharing Martin Armstrong's new essay "It's Just Time," dated October 10th, 2008. As many of you know from last year's NY Times article by Gretchen Morgenson, Martin Armstrong has spent almost nine years in prison for contempt of court, more years than if he had been actually convicted of securities fraud. It's a disturbing tale of injustice involving one of the greatest economic and market minds of our time.

I ran across Martin's work in my original studies of market and economic cycles after the NASDAQ bubble began to burst. While I didn't know it at the time, his Economic Confidence Model encapsulated all the cycles from Kitchin's to Kondrateiff's and could predict market turns almost to the day. I was fascinated enough to cut and past a copy of his article, "The Business Cycle And The Future" from his Princeton Economics web site. Little did I know that nine years later, Martin would be in jail and my blog would be one of the last public sources of his Business Cycle essay.

Martin's economic work should have received a Nobel prize by now. Instead, the man is relegated to recording his thoughts on a single-spaced, IBM type writer from prison. His 77 page essay can be accessed here (pdf warning)..."

[wroberts189]

18. Soon to be 4 trillion plus in debt ...I can believe it nt

[wuvuj]

22. The economy is only a part of the problem?

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse


We're looking at a perfect storm....humans will be in survival mode for an indefinite future?

The yeast are starting to learn?

[DemReadingDU]

23. I just posted Martenson's mini-crash course he presented on PBS

check this thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x57012

[wuvuj]

24. Didn't see the PBS show....

...the 3.5 hour presentation ties in population...energy...environment...etc....it's a long ride and a mind bender...

[DemReadingDU]

25. Watch the PBS replay, only 38 minutes

Link to the PBS page, scroll down more than half way past other programs until you see 'The Crash Course' and Martenson's picture.
http://www.wgby.org/podcasts/index.html

As for the complete Martenson crash course, try appx an hour a day for 3 days. Lots of cool graphs and charts
:)
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

[Mr. Hyde]

26. I tend to agree with the article. The pull of the deflationary spiral is getting worse.

"THESE are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country..."
Thomas Paine

[dixiegrrrrl]

31. ohh..I like this part from his article...

2nd paragraph:
The term Black Friday came about in the Panic of 1969 when the populace was dragging the bankers into the street and HANGING THEM.

Damn...we are too civilized nowdays.

[Joanne98]

33. But it will only be a depression for some of us. The rich will live like Gods as usual

[hack89]

35. Armstrong ran a Ponzi scheme - would you also listen to Bernie Madoff? nt

[TheWatcher]

36. And you think listening to Bernanke makes you any more informed?

Listening to the obvious Propaganda the Media feeds you everyday about how everything is fine, and all of this will be over by June?

Listening to Pandit, Lewis, and the other Banksters makes one a Sage?

Helo Ben, Goofy Geithner, and Stammerin' Hank have FORGOTTEN more about being criminals than this guy could ever learn to be.

At least this crook is telling you what the possibilities of the fallout from his ilk's activities COULD be.

The guys like Bernanke at the top are smiling and telling you everything is going to be OK while figuring out how to separate the country from the rest of what little wealth and treasure we have left.

This my be the opining of a crook, of course, but it's just as delusional to take Bernanke's nonsense at face value.

But most will turn to Helo Ben for numbing, because it's Oh So Important to feel good than face what's really going on.

[hack89]

37. No - I just think that convicted frauds are not the best source of financial information

that's all

[TheWatcher]

38. Neither are unconvicted frauds who are actually running things and a Hell of a lot more relevantly

dangerous than this guy.

You can shoot all the messengers you want, it doesn't change the fact this so called "recovery" is nothing more than a fraud, and we are being lied to and led down a very dangerous path by those who are actually running things.

[hack89]

39. His view aligns with yours - got it

doesn't it mean either of you are right. He is a fraud and a con man - there is ample reason to question his judgment.

[TheWatcher]

40. And Bernake's world of lies and delusion seems to align with yours.

He's a BIGGER fraud and a con man than this jack ass could EVER hope to achieve.

But hey, follow Ben and his Merry Banksters off the cliff if it suits you.

Like I said, the American people for the most part are FAR more invested in feeling good and believing whatever lies those in charge tell them so they can continue to live in a fantasy world.

Knock yourself out.

Nothing exists, nothing is real, Bernanke is the second coming of Christ, The Recession will be over in June, the Banks are fine, The Autos can never go bankrupt, we've reached the bottom, The Economy is stabilizing, Those in control NEVER lie to us and only have our best interests at heart, and possibly the biggest Global Collapse in history was all better in six months.

Praise Marty Moose. :eyes:

The difference between this guy and the spew that Helo Ben gives you is that this guy COULD be wrong. Bernanke is full of shit without a doubt.

But hey, who am I to blow the lamb's high when they are having such a good time getting fleeced.

Party On, Dudes.

Back Up The Truck. Dow 80,000 by July!

[hack89]

41. Where have I expressed any opinion or choice at all?

my only point is that a convicted con man is not the best choice as an oracle. Here is a radical thought - perhaps the world is not really black and white and there are actually other choices besides supporting Bernake or accepting your world view.

[TheWatcher]

42. And my point is that neither are the "accepted" Criminals voices either.

And there are plenty of credible sources that think the current rally and mythical "Recovery" is full of shit, besides this ex-con.

You don't have to accept my "world view", and I could really care less if you do. the majority of the people in this country have absolutely NO interest in ANY difficult Truth. They want the allure and pomp of the Quick-Fix, and it would seem for now the Criminals who are in charge are MORE than capable of providing them with that illusion. Everybody's happy. YAY AMERICA! :patriot:

Like I said, to the cliffs and be happy for it.

You haven't expressed it, but I'm willing to bet you're more than willing to buy the Kool-Aid they've been selling you.

If I'm wrong about that, accept my apologies in advance. The addiction to the Propaganda Fest has become so pandemically pervasive lately on DU one can sometimes fall into the trap of assumption.

And I'll accept yours (which you would never give, of course) for trying to conveniently foist this ex-con's world view off on me.

Mine is less dark than his. I'm thinking 10 years till we recover.

I COULD be wrong too.

But the BS the Puppet Masters feed you?

Bullshit Beyond A Reasonable Doubt, designed to keep you numb, complacent, and oblivious as a frog in a pot of boiling water.

Good Evening To You.

[hack89]

43. Have a good evening too. nt