Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Hungarian, Polish and Czech government debt, among the highest rated in emerging markets, has already been downgraded by bondholders.
Investors are demanding 20 basis points more yield to own Hungary’s bonds than similar-maturity Brazilian debt, which is rated four levels lower by Moody’s Investors Service, JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes show. The risk of Poland defaulting is about the same as Serbia, ranked six levels lower by Standard & Poor’s, based on credit-default swap prices. Czech 10-year bonds yield the most compared with German bunds since 2001.
“Everybody is running for the door,” said Lars Christensen, head of emerging-market strategy at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “The markets have decided the central and eastern European region is the subprime area of Europe.”
Investors who lost more than 18 percent on emerging-market sovereign and corporate bonds last year based on Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes now face steeper declines in Eastern Europe, said Christensen. While the region’s integration with the European Union spurred foreign investment earlier this decade, Poland’s currency weakened 35 percent against the euro since August, the Czech economy cooled to the slowest pace in almost 10 years in the fourth quarter and Hungary required a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.
Monitoring ‘Very Closely’
“Hungary is the one that we are monitoring very closely,” Dietmar Hornung, senior analyst in Frankfurt, said in a phone interview today. “The ratings as they are reflect to a certain degree the assumption that it is rating positive to be a European Union country.”
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