There's a rumor going around that Obama and Summers are setting Geithner up to fail. Word is he sits alone in his office, he hasn't been given any undersecretaries or a deputy. The big bank rescue announcement was hyped to some extent by Obama beforehand, but Geithner is widely perceived to have flopped. Maybe Geithner's allies are circulating these rumors, or maybe the administration is anticipating the inevitable backlash to deep captured Geithner's ideas and has a plan B (wishful thinking on my part?).
Geithner's Latest Gift To Citigroup Owners Finally CompleteHenry Blodget,
http://www.businessinsider.com/geithners-latest-tapayer-gift-to-citigroup-owners-finally-complete-2009-2">Clusterstock
The New York Times says the deal is done. The Wall Street Journal said the deal was done and then printed a correction saying it wasn't done. Whatever. It's done.
And here's the deal:
You, the taxpayer, will be converting your dividend-paying Citigroup preferred stock into non-dividend paying Citigroup common stock. And because Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner seems determined to gift as much of your money as possible to Citigroup stakeholders as possible, you'll be doing this at $5, more than twice Citigroup's closing share price.
If this were a homeowner bailout, it would be equivalent to the government paying you $500,000 for your house when it's only worth $250,000. Of course that's never going to happen. (And, of course, in this case, Citi's house is only worth $2.50 because taxpayers gave Citi massive second and third mortgages. If they hadn't, it would be worth zero.).
The Treasury Secretary will try to make it look as though he got you a great deal because he also gets to fire half of the Citigroup board. But that's just a symbolic concession. Boards don't run companies. And a new board won't stop Citigroup's asset values from plummeting so that the company will soon need even more of your money.
Which brings up another problem with Geithner's plan. It doesn't address Citigroup's asset problem.
(What should Geithner have done? Forced Citi to write down the value of its assets to nuclear-winter levels, and then converted a bunch of Citigroup debt to equity--including the US's preferred stock. Instead, he just gave your money away.
What is Geithner thinking here? He's desperate to avoid taking majority ownership of Citi, in part because Citi's gigantic hairball of a balance sheet will suddenly be put on the US's books. He also doesn't want to send a paroxysm of panic through the bank debt market by notifying bank debt holders that the bonds they own aren't, in fact, as safe as Treasury Bills but pay much higher interest--which is currently the case. So Geithner's capping the US ownership at 40% and keeping bondholders whole.)
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