Dr. Housing Bubble 05/18/09

[Crewleader]

Predicting the California Housing Bottom and Examining Market Trends from 1992 to 2009: Foreclosures, Inflation Adjusted Prices, and Income. Data Points to a 2011 Bottom for California Housing.

Last quarter California had to deal with the largest amount of Notice of Defaults (NODs) being sent out by lenders in the history of our state. Now without any frame of reference, it is hard to say what an average year of NODs is for California. In today’s article I data mined back to 1992 and gathered information for almost 2 decades for the state NODs. Now why is this crucial in helping us understand the housing situation for the state? First, we have a large amount of toxic mortgages with Pay Option ARMs and Alt-A loans still lingering in our state. Without having a frame of reference, having record NODs in one quarter can mean that we are only X percent above the average annual trend line meaning we would be closer to a bottom. As you will see with the data I gathered, there is nothing further from the truth. I will also examine inflation-adjusted prices to try to analyze the current bottom calling we are seeing.

Foreclosures and Notice of Defaults



http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/predicting-the-california-housing-bottom-and-examining-market-trends-from-1992-to-2009-foreclosures-inflation-adjusted-prices-and-income-data-points-to-a-2011-bottom-for-california-housing/