US boosts production (76.6 percent of its total capacity = good to media)

[papau]

So the index that Clinton had - 80.1, is now 76.6, so jobs are coming back. Why can this administration not give out clean data - or note the true implications?

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAPBAPQURD.html

Industrial Production Grows by 0.7 Percent in February, Good Sign for
WASHINGTON (AP) - Big industry production rose by a strong 0.7 percent in February, an encouraging sign that the nation's manufacturers may be getting a stronger grip on their own recovery.
The increase in output at the nation's factories, mines and utilities came after a 0.8 percent jump in activity in January, the Federal Reserve reported Monday.

Last month's industrial production performance was even better than the 0.4 percent increase that some economists were forecasting. Gains were widespread in February, with production rising for automotive products, home electronics, business equipment, machinery, food products and chemicals.

"This breadth of the recovery bodes well for future production," said Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist at the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a research group

The latest figures showed US industry used 76.6 percent of its total capacity, up from 76.1 in January. Data is from the Fed http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/

Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry
Seasonally adjusted

Utilization (percent)

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual


1991 | 79.8 79.1 78.6 78.6 79.3 80.0 79.8 79.8 80.3 80.0 79.8 79.4 | 79.2 79.3 80.0 79.7 | 79.6
1992 | 78.8 79.4 79.9 80.3 80.4 80.3 80.8 80.4 80.3 80.8 81.1 80.9 | 79.4 80.3 80.5 80.9 | 80.3
CLINTON 1993 | 81.1 81.3 81.3 81.3 80.9 80.9 81.1 80.9 81.2 81.6 81.8 82.1 | 81.2 81.1 81.1 81.8 | 81.3
1994 | 82.4 82.3 82.8 83.0 83.3 83.6 83.5 83.7 83.6 83.9 84.2 84.8 | 82.5 83.3 83.6 84.3 | 83.4
1995 | 84.8 84.5 84.2 83.8 83.7 83.6 82.8 83.6 83.6 83.0 82.9 82.9 | 84.5 83.7 83.3 82.9 | 83.6
| | |
1996 | 81.9 82.6 82.0 82.3 82.5 82.8 82.3 82.5 82.6 82.3 82.7 82.8 | 82.1 82.5 82.5 82.6 | 82.4
1997 | 82.7 83.5 83.4 83.4 83.3 83.3 83.4 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.3 84.1 | 83.2 83.3 83.7 84.2 | 83.6
1998 | 84.0 83.7 83.5 83.5 83.4 82.6 81.9 83.2 82.6 82.9 82.3 82.0 | 83.7 83.1 82.6 82.4 | 83.0
1999 | 82.2 82.1 82.2 82.1 82.3 82.1 82.3 82.6 82.1 82.7 82.8 83.2 | 82.2 82.2 82.3 82.9 | 82.4
2000 | 82.8 83.0 83.0 83.3 83.5 83.3 82.7 82.3 82.4 81.8 81.5 81.0 | 82.9 83.4 82.4 81.4 | 82.6
| | |
BUSH 2001 | 80.1 79.5 79.0 78.6 78.1 77.5 77.0 76.7 76.1 75.8 75.3 75.1 | 79.5 78.0 76.6 75.4 | 77.4
2002 | 75.4 75.4 75.6 75.8 75.8 76.2 76.0 75.9 75.7 75.4 75.4 74.9 | 75.4 75.9 75.8 75.2 | 75.6
2003 | 75.2 75.4 74.8 74.2 74.1 74.0 74.5 74.5 74.9 75.0 75.7 75.6 | 75.1 74.1 74.6 75.4 | 74.8
2004 | 76.1 76.6

Average
1972-2003 1982
Low 1988-89
High 2003
Feb. 2003 2004
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.

Total industry 81.1 70.9 85.2 75.4 75.7 75.6 76.1 76.6

http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/fullpub.html
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES FEBRUARY 2004

http://www.census.gov/mtis/www/current.html
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES AND SALES JANUARY 2004

http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/
HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PRELIMINARY REPORT ON MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
January 2004 Released 10:00 A.M. EST March 4, 2004 (M3-1(04)-01)
Note: All figures in text are in seasonally adjusted current dollars
Summary: New orders for manufactured goods in January decreased $1.7 billion or 0.5 percent to $343.2 billion, the Department of Commerce, Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.8 percent December increase. Shipments, up five consecutive months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.5 percent to $350.1 billion. This followed a 2.1 percent December increase. Unfilled orders, down following five consecutive increases, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.1 percent to $505.8 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent December increase. Inventories, up three of the last four months, increased $0.8 billion or 0.2 percent to $439.4 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent December increase. (NEW ORDERS DROPPED IN JANUARY PER MARCH 4,2004 DATA)


http://www.commerce.gov/economic_analysis.html

[Sinistrous]

1. Is that even a percentage of the same base?

With the spate of plant closings over the past three years, it appears to me that what we are looking at here is 80% of X, compared to 76.6 % of (X-Y).

What am I missing.

[papau]

2. Actually a good point - oil refine shutdowns, plants closed forever -are

not part of capacity because they can not be re-opened. I am sure the Bush crowd has worked to remove them (actually I'm not sure - the Bush crowd has been so lacking in talent in every other area, I doubt they effective in this area - what I depend on is the idea that civil service folks doing the work are not being too tightly managed - so they will do the right thing unless interferred with).

But this is likely to be a percentage of a smaller number.

Back in the old days when it floated in the 80's folks said thatobsolete plan shutdowns and sell off of parts was needed to get the utilization into a "healthy" 90's something number..

Well we have had the shutdowns and sell - offs

and only an inventory build-up gets us to the mid - 70's.