So we had (have) an economy based on making things, lots of spending by consumers, and supported by cheap oil. We are now significantly crippled by the huge loss of jobs in manufacturing and a mortgage sector that is watching the profits built on tissue paper vanish like smoke. Jeff Rubin argues that this was a symptom of the change in oil usage across the globe, that the housing sector coming apart was a symptom of the real driver, the oil that brings us all the stuff we buy, and moves the stuff we make. A chart showing a recession which followed every spike in oil prices at
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4727 indicates that the most recent was the most severe, and not the result of production being shut off as in past times. Although we still drive oil consumption with our cars, China has doubled their in the past few years, and Russia is increasing, making availability more of a question than it ever has been. It is reported that 75% of all wells drilled are nonproductive, (I don't know how this compares historically) and where it is found getting it out is more expensive than anything in the past. Many of the fields are showing their age. Millions of people have no jobs, and no likelihood of getting one anytime soon. We may be in this for 5-7 years, and there may well be more shocks coming from housing, oil, other unknowns.
I realize that can all be argued about, (could well be wrong) but I am just publicly brainstorming about ways to think about how people will make money in the future? If some part or all of these assumptions prove to be true, what is the way forward?
On a big scale, do we need a national university that operates online to help people learn beyond the little bit given them in primary and secondary education? At a price they can afford? With classes that are geared more toward people figuring out how to own their own assets for production, whether it is agricultural or manufacturing? Classes are geared toward getting people to college, but tuition and other obstacles are creating huge barriers that are growing by the day. This is our Human Resources pipeline; doesn't look good.
Maybe there will be a rise in agriculture, a rash of small farms to grow products that serve local markets because we can no longer afford to import our food from South America or other states?
Other countries seem to have an advantage in creating solar panels and other ways to avoid being part of the above scenario - could that be done here on a smaller scale? Would battery manufacturing be a way toward the future? Maybe manufacturing is over as we know it - there now exists a machine which will create parts from digital files, just needs some assembly and shipping of the pieces that come out.
For years we built an economy on creating something out of raw materials, but that appears to be changing. With millions of people out of work, and perhaps for half a dozen years or more, there won't be much of an economy to sustain. It could be downright dangerous just to bike to work (no oil you can afford, will you have another choice?)
Not so much trying to make a case for a falling sky, but if these are realities it would be nice to figure out how to profit in the new world.
So where will wealth creation come from?