Goldbugs! Are you going to sell?

[EstimatedProphet]

Gold is going up. Is it worth selling soon (if it goes up much more) or holding onto it longer?

[Andy_Stephenson]

1. Hold on tight...

it is not done going up yet.

[Sanity]

2. It'll probably trade sideways for a while

That's my guess.

[EstimatedProphet]

3. So when would be a good time to sell?

I'm curious because I don't have much of a feel for it. I don't want to sell at these prices, but I really can't say with any feeling how much I think it will go up, and I am hoping it doesn't go down too...

[teryang]

8. It depends on interest rates

If interest rates were to rise to a reasonable level for a saver, on secure accounts where you were able to get 2 percent over the discount rate plus inflation, you might want to lighten up. Otherwise I'd hold on as a hedge. Let's face it banks loaning money for long term mortgages at 6 percent or less fixed rates are going to lose their asses. If I can't get more than 6 percent on a secure investment there is no incentive to sell gold or real estate. The advantage of gold is that it isn't subject to ad valorem taxation as a store of value but it generally doesn't yield any income. Where are the better investments?

Gold is a hedge, if you're trading, it doesn't matter what you trade. Gold is going up, in part because savers are being penalized by the banking system. The current economic model is a hamster wheel. With a war time economy, gold is going up, unless interest rates are allowed to rise.

[54anickel]

16. "Investing" in gold - Article link

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/apr022004.html

In response to last week’s column, Don wrote to say that terrorism’s influence on the gold price does not make the metal a bad investment choice. He makes the point that the biggest increase in the gold price occurred during 1979 and early 1980, mostly due to tension between the United States and the Middle East, exemplified by the Iranian Hostage Crisis: a terrorist act. Don then asks, rhetorically, why that would not have been a good time to invest in gold.

He goes on the say that people turn to gold during times of political instability and uncertainty, and that the success of the terrorist act in Spain (in changing the political climate there) indicates that we are likely to experience more such atrocities. Given that terrorism will continue to influence gold’s future, the prospect of increased terrorist activity is a sound basis for investment.

I agree with Don almost entirely. History confirms that people tend to buy gold during times of trouble and uncertainty. The situation today is quite analogous to the late seventies. There is tension between the United States and Muslim countries and as far as terrorism goes, things are likely to get worse before they get better. It is also true that a lot of money could have been made buying gold during the late 1970s. But, and this is where I disagree with Don, buying gold in anticipation of increased terrorism, or the threat of continued political and social uncertainty, is not a good investment idea.

Predicting the timing and severity of terrorist activity is nearly impossible. Even if we are certain that terrorism will increase, we don’t know whether there will be a major strike this year, or next. Perhaps nothing will happen for three years. Or maybe there will be a spate of activity later this year, and then a lull. Either way, most people are likely to feel the urge to buy gold when there is an increase in terrorist activity, or uncertainty, or both, precisely when gold will be trading at higher levels.

more...

[54anickel]

4. That depends on why you bought it in the first place.

If you bought it for a store of value in uncertain times, the times certainly haven't changed. And the dollar has a long way to go down. Nearly all currencies are in the process of devaluing.

If you bought it to turn a quick buck, that depends on how much up and down you can stand. It will probably roller coaster, ending up mostly sideways. I've seen projections of 450 to 480 by the end of the year, but no one really knows.

I'd be hanging on to mine for a long time. But, I'm long on gold.

[CaptainClark23]

5. Well, if you believe this guy

Richard Russell, the so-called sage of dow theory told Barron's that he advises his subscribers to hold cash, gold and gold stocks. And that Gold at $400 an ounce is “as cheap as dirt”. Russell sees gold prices above $1,000 an ounce.

Will it? Too many variables to say one way or another. But there are alot of scenarios by which such a premium on gold would be quite imaginable. I'm sure you've considered a couple yourself.

As for me, like the good and esteemed 54anickel, I'm in quite long.

[Steven_S]

6. I'm heavy and long...

I don't think we've seen the end of economic troubles. I may even buy more, I haven't decided.

[54anickel]

10. Hey, no sex threads!

Couldn't resist with that subject line. :evilgrin:

I wish I would have started buying while things were going great and I was still working. I'd like to have a bit more, but no descretionary funds now.

[Moderator]

11. Hey! I'm watching...

:evilgrin:

[54anickel]

12. Whoa! Great response time! Only 1 minute. Our mods are the best.

:toast:

[JNelson6563]

7. I'm long on gold

this storm is no where near over.

Julie

[kalian]

9. Go long on gold....

it will be choppy but the general trend will be upwards. Just take
a look at the beating that the US dollar is receiving...

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

13. Gold should remain rather high

I see a ceiling of 500 sometime this year.

I'm buying silver right now, it will hit 10 bucks within the year.

[junker]

14. Sell gold at $3800 USD ; Sell silver at either $175 USD or

at parity with gold which ever comes first. Dollar is gonna die really soon. Likely this summer. When that happens what ever price in USD one puts on gold is valid. As worthless paper is worthless paper. And gold is money.

Also HUGE silver squeeze coming in May/June. over 20 million ounces will have to be delivered and don't exist above ground except as scrap. Lots of people globally will dishoard at around 10 to 15 USD then a smaller bit more at about 35 USD, then it will go to over 100 USD due to shortfall and remember, China now owns (via contract for forward delivery) 75% of ALL THE SILVER BEING MINED IN '05....!

so that is only 25% left for the rest of the planet....

[54anickel]

15. Hey Junker! Good to see you again. Where ya been hiding out?