Krugman Sees 30-40% Chance of U.S. Recession in 2010

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

Krugman Sees 30-40% Chance of U.S. Recession in 2010

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said he sees about a one-third chance the U.S. economy will slide into a recession during the second half of the year as fiscal and monetary stimulus fade.

“It is not a low probability event, 30 to 40 percent chance,” Krugman said today in an interview in Atlanta, where he was attending an economics conference. “The chance that we will have growth slowing enough that unemployment ticks up again I would say is better than even.”

Krugman, 56, said growth will slow as the Federal Reserve ends purchases of securities, the Obama administration’s $787 billion stimulus program winds down and companies stop rebuilding depleted stockpiles.

The Princeton University professor joined Harvard’s Martin Feldstein and Columbia’s Joseph Stiglitz, another Nobel laureate, in sounding an alarm for the world’s largest economy during the annual meeting of the American Economic Association. Feldstein yesterday called the fading stimulus “a serious cloud,” and Stiglitz said growth won’t be “robust” soon.

...snip...


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aluoqvsvAwO8

[Xipe Totec]

1. So the question is: Will he be 40% wrong, or 60% wrong?

If there is no recession, he will be 40% wrong.

If there is one, he will be 60% wrong.

[dixiegrrrrl]

2. Krugman is NOT the guy I would go to for the real scoop on the economy.

People like Denninger, or Keiser, or Jim Rogers are not as linked to the mainstream and can afford to be much more honest.
IMHO after listening to them for the past 5 years.......

[jschurchin]

4. +1 dixie

I couldn't agree more. I read Karl almost every day. The guy has his shit in one sock, too bad not enough listen to what he is saying. Max and Jim are up there too.

[Xipe Totec]

5. The point is, to point out, how he hedged his bets

Like predicting that it will rain tomorrow, and that it will not rain tomorrow, then claiming a 50% success rate.

[Feron]

6. Thank you for those suggestions.

I got tired of Krugman and I'm really enjoying Karl Denninger's blog. When I have more time, I'll check out the other two. :D

[pokercat999]

7. Denninger is a little to far to the right for me about some

issues but on the economy he is usually dead on target. I read his site daily.

[Paper Roses]

3. What are we having now, a tea party? n/t