Fed Warns Banks They Need To Worry About Rising Interest Rates

[girl gone mad]

Morgan Stanley's forecast may not have been so crazy, after all. Even the Fed is warning that the interest rate environment could shift quickly.

The Federal Reserve Thursday released an advisory reminding depository institutions of supervisory expectations for sound practices in managing interest rate risk. This advisory, adopted along with the other financial regulators, reiterates the importance of effective corporate governance, policies and procedures, risk measuring and monitoring systems, stress testing, and internal controls related to the interest rate risk exposures of depository institutions. It also clarifies elements of existing guidance and describes interest rate risk-management techniques used by effective risk managers.

The financial regulators recognize that some interest rate risk is inherent in the business of banking. At the same time, institutions are expected to have sound risk-management practices to measure, monitor, and control interest rate risk exposures. The financial regulators expect each depository institution to manage its interest rate risk exposures using processes and systems commensurate with its complexity, business model, risk profile, and scope of operations.

The financial regulators remind depository institutions that an effective interest rate risk-management system does not involve only the identification and measurement of interest rate risk, but also addresses appropriate actions to control this risk. If an institution determines that its core earnings and capital are insufficient to support its level of interest rate risk, it should take steps to mitigate its exposure, increase its capital, or both.

In an accompanying Supervision and Regulation letter to Reserve Bank heads of supervision, the Federal Reserve noted that although the advisory is targeted at depository institutions, the advice provided is also directly pertinent to bank holding companies. Bank holding companies are reminded of supervisory expectations that they should manage and control aggregate risk exposures, including interest rate risk, on a consolidated basis, while recognizing legal distinctions and possible obstacles to cash movements among subsidiaries.

In addition to the Fed, the financial regulators include the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the National Credit Union Administration, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision, and the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council State Liaison

http://www.scribd.com/doc/24914525/bcreg20100107

[dkf]

1. What did MS forecast?

[girl gone mad]

3. 5.5% yield on the 10-year by the end of 2010..

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16115.html

If Morgan Stanley is right, the best sale of U.S. Treasuries for 2010 may be the short sale.

Yields on benchmark 10-year notes will climb about 40 percent to 5.5 percent, the biggest annual increase since 1999, according to David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. The surge will push interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to 7.5 percent to 8 percent, almost the highest in a decade, Greenlaw said.

When you take these kinds of aggressive policy actions to prevent a depression, you have to clean up after yourself,” Greenlaw said in a telephone interview. “Market signals will ultimately spur some policy action but I’m not naive enough to think it will be a very pleasant environment.”

Speculators, including hedge-fund managers, increased bets that 10-year note futures would decline more than fivefold in the week ending Dec. 15, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Speculative short positions, or bets prices will fall, outnumbered long positions by 52,781 contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade. It was the biggest increase since October 2008.

Edward McKelvey, senior economist in New York at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the top-ranked U.S. economic forecasters in 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, expects yields to drop to 3.25 percent. Goldman Sachs says unemployment will average 10.3 percent in 2010, hindering the recovery.

“This is the re-emergence of the bond market vigilantes,” said Mitchell Stapley, the Grand Rapids, Michigan-based chief fixed-income officer for Fifth Third Asset Management, who oversees $22 billion. “The vigilantes are saying, OK guys you want to do this, you’re going to pay a higher price for it.”

[msongs]

2. yeah can't have any banks paying higher interest rates on savings or CDs nt

[girl gone mad]

4. I'm all for higher rates, btw.