More on that 43% rise in Emergency Unemployment Claims in December.

[girl gone mad]

Mish had an interesting post speculating that this jump could account for the http://www.zerohedge.com/print/49137">32% discrepancy in unemployment data noted earlier by Zero Hedge.

From http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/massive-jump-in-emergency-unemployment.html">Global Economic Analysis:

My answer would be a MASSIVE jump in the Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) benefits, which jumped from 3,594,253 (11/07/09) to 5,143,410 (12/19/09), up 43% in just over a month! The increase in EUC more than offset the decline in continuing claims and we are now at a new record when combining all measures of unemployment benefits. Economists were pointing out that continuing claims and initial claims were falling as a bullish sign, however what was happening was that those benefits were exhausting for people who used up that benefit, leading to the decline in the numbers which is proved by a record (52.24%) exhaustion rate.

Record Unemployment Deterioration



However, these people were not finding employment which is why the House passed a bill in December to extend benefits, thus leading to a massive 43% jump in the aptly named “EMERGENCY” Unemployment Compensation program. The jump was so large that now the EUC numbers surpass continuing claims!

The data I have from Moody’s comes with a lag, so the data in the charts below is only updated through 12/19/09, but the combined unemployment claims numbers just broke out to a new record!

Combined Weekly Claims

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/S0ZG0MreEjI/AAAAAAAAHjU/XcIhLiQnUlg/s400/weekly+claims1.png

Combined Weekly Claims Detain Since 2000

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/S0ZHZ1NXypI/AAAAAAAAHjc/zlcuaobDD64/s400/weekly+claims2.png

Much more analysis at the link above.

[Po_d Mainiac]

1. Pssst....Don't tell anyone, Many State funds are on life support n/t