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Farrell states that for the last decade, "Wall Street lost trillions, lost 11% of your money. Adjusted for inflation, Wall Street lost 20% of your money." Unfortunately, Farrell is being extremely loose with the facts here. When he says "Wall Street" here, he is actually referring to the S&P 500 index, a list of 500 large companies in America. Yes, if you bought all 500 of those stocks at the beginning of 2000 and you sold them at the end of 2009, you would have realized a loss of about 11% for the decade, a bit more than 1% a year.
But who did that? Not me, and probably not you, either.
It was a bad decade, no doubt. It was ugly--we had two very steep, very painful, and very long bear markets that savaged returns. And yet, when I look down the list of funds in my 401(k), I don't see many negative average returns for the past decade.
I see a large cap growth fund that averaged a positive 0.83% return from 2000 to 2009. That's nothing to jump for joy about, but when the S&P averaged a negative 1.2%, I'm okay with it. And that's not all I see.
I see a large cap value fund that averaged 4.2% for the decade. A mid cap value fund that returned an average 6.82% per year. An international fun that averaged 5.75% and an emerging markets fund that returned an amazing 6.67% per year during the "lost decade." Plus I see bond funds that did as well or better than many stock funds.
The point is, the S&P 500 is not equivalent to "Wall Street." And poor returns are not necessarily the result of nefarious shenanigans. Sometimes, the market does what the market does (and WE are the market). The best way to prepare for the whims and caprices of the market are to be well diversified--to invest in large caps, small caps, mid caps, internationals, bonds, etc.
Farrell then, amazingly dons his Karnac hat and declares: "The odds now predict Wall Street losing another 20% of your money in the next decade." Really? On what do you base that, Mr. Farrell? When has the stock market--even as measured by something as limited as the S&P 500--ever had two back-to-back decades of 20% losses? Ever? It has never happened.
Better idea: Be sensible and prudent, but take some risks to stay ahead of inflation. Diversify and hold on to good investments. Don't get scared out of solid funds because of short-term downturns or media hysteria (e.g., Mr. Farrell). Invest for the long run. If you are getting to the home stretch before retirement, slow down and get more cautious. But if you have a long time to go until retirement, although the road will no doubt be bumpy, the destination will be worth it.
Just because it's an "investment"--a stock, a bond, a mutual fund, an ETF--doesn't mean that some Wall Street swindler is going to "steal" your money. American investors LOSE more of their OWN money due to irrational behavior and poor decisions than Wall Street scammers ever steal from them.
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