Most people seem to concur that the U.S. economy is quite dependant on consumption (70% or so), but the the financial
crisis has "scared" many who have recongnized that they have too much debt. So they are paying down that debt, presumably
paving the way for a recovery when people are "comfortable" again.
But what if the reason they are not spending has more to do with their jobs now paying 1/3 or less than they used to make,
or the lack of a job, or that there are structural issues that allow a small percentage of the people to take the majority
of gains and amass most of the wealth.
If that is the case job creation and removing the tax discounts for the wealthiest folks would give us the greatest impetus
for a recovery, while mortgage and debt relief programs would give us the least.
Thus, this article...
Debt Loads Deserve Less Blame for Weak Spending
By Kathleen Madigan
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Americans, however, look downright frugal compared with borrowers in some other countries not typically associated with credit-card-wielding squanderers: the ratio in Denmark hit about 320%, and it was close to 250% in the Netherlands in 2007, according to Slok’s calculations.
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U.S. consumers are still cutting back on debt: According to Federal Reserve data, they spent 12.5% of their disposable income on debt servicing in the first quarter of 2010–but that’s down from the record of nearly 14% hit in the first quarter of 2008 and is very close to the average of 12.1%.
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That in turn points to reasons other than a debt stranglehold for consumers’ reticence, putting the spotlight on jobs and income growth instead.
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If new jobless claims remain near 500,000 in coming weeks, however, it means labor markets are weakening this month. August private payrolls could be rising slower than even the tempered pace of the first half.
More here...