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Consumers will spend after they get their debt under control. Or maybe not.

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jtuck004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 07:47 PM
Original message
Consumers will spend after they get their debt under control. Or maybe not.
Most people seem to concur that the U.S. economy is quite dependant on consumption (70% or so), but the the financial
crisis has "scared" many who have recongnized that they have too much debt. So they are paying down that debt, presumably
paving the way for a recovery when people are "comfortable" again.

But what if the reason they are not spending has more to do with their jobs now paying 1/3 or less than they used to make,
or the lack of a job, or that there are structural issues that allow a small percentage of the people to take the majority
of gains and amass most of the wealth.

If that is the case job creation and removing the tax discounts for the wealthiest folks would give us the greatest impetus
for a recovery, while mortgage and debt relief programs would give us the least.

Thus, this article...


Debt Loads Deserve Less Blame for Weak Spending

By Kathleen Madigan
...
Americans, however, look downright frugal compared with borrowers in some other countries not typically associated with credit-card-wielding squanderers: the ratio in Denmark hit about 320%, and it was close to 250% in the Netherlands in 2007, according to Slok’s calculations.
...
U.S. consumers are still cutting back on debt: According to Federal Reserve data, they spent 12.5% of their disposable income on debt servicing in the first quarter of 2010–but that’s down from the record of nearly 14% hit in the first quarter of 2008 and is very close to the average of 12.1%.
...
That in turn points to reasons other than a debt stranglehold for consumers’ reticence, putting the spotlight on jobs and income growth instead.
...
If new jobless claims remain near 500,000 in coming weeks, however, it means labor markets are weakening this month. August private payrolls could be rising slower than even the tempered pace of the first half.


More here...

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Curmudgeoness Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
1. It boggles my mind that the powers that be do not know that killing the
consumer (US worker) will help to kill them too. If we need to consume for the businesses to prosper, they must realize that we need to make enough money to have some expendable cash.

I remember my parents, who came through the Great Depression. They never lost the frugality they learned from that time. And the people who are living through this may not ever forget.
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. When one has a few million stashed away at various International Banks
one worries not about such things.
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Curmudgeoness Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 08:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. You would think. But every quarter they want bigger profits.
Profits mean everything. So this is like killing the goose that lays the golden egg.
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Large Corporations exploit an area, and move on...
once they've drained all the money they think they can, they'll move on. It's they way they treat their markets and their employees, I don't see why it would be any different with this.
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northernlights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 08:42 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. it drives a change of lifestyle...I won't go back
I'm switching to solar cooking. I won't go back. I've changed certain personal habits -- even how often I shower. I won't go back. I long ago bought enough basic clothes to last me a long time back in my prosperous 90s. Other than replacing worn out things, I rarely splurge. I won't go back. By next year I'll be growing most of my own veggies, making my own bread, etc. I won't go back.

I just keep changing and changing, finding new ways to cut my costs. The thing is, most of the cuts don't involve any real sacrifice. Solar cooking is *less* work, and the results are *better.* Food doesn't get burned, pots are easy to clean because nothing ever burns on, etc. Not having to worry about clothes is easier. Less is truly more. I won't go back.
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Indeed. I've found myself doing the same things...
and I agree. :applause:
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Curmudgeoness Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 08:46 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. So are you saying you won't go back?
LOL, I get your point. I have never been one of the big consumers (again, Depression era parents instill a lot in you), but I agree with you, it is no sacrifice. And now many more people are finding this out. Many will not go back.
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-06-10 06:20 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. Yep. My inspiration was my depression-era grandparents
They kept a stocked pantry, did their own repairs and made every penny count, even though they were financially very stable. That made a big impression on me as a child.
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jtuck004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-05-10 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. So do you live in a Southern lattitude that allows for more solar
time? Did you build your own? Or perhaps you have a post
that has a pic or better description?

And how goes the baking - tried that yet? I was thinking 'bout setting up a solar oven for bread.

Aside from all that - We appear to be in for a period of retrenchment, and I am doing some similar things, trying to aim for
sustainability. Next will be selling this house, hopefully in the not too distant future, and moving a bit further out to a
place with just a bit more space.
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northernlights Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-06-10 08:07 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. I live in Maine
Edited on Fri Aug-06-10 08:13 AM by northernlights
We have a lot of sun in the summer and practically none in winter. But I should be able to cook here between the hours of 10am and 2pm for a while. Right now I can cook from about 9am to 3pm. I'm hoping to get enough frozen so that by the time the solar cooking season ends I can make it through winter without cooking. Time will tell. As it is, I think I'm limited more by my freezer space than cooking time.

I bought a hotpot from solarovens.net and I love it. I'm going to get one of the other designs too, that holds different kinds of pots and pans so I can cook multiple things at a time. The hotpot works best as a "crockpot" type setup, but you can do other things too. I need to pick up a small black enamel cookie sheet to lay in the pot -- I think that will work.


There are advantages to making your own, but also advantages to buying. The manufactured reflectors reflect better -- they are polished to practically mirror quality -- so bring in more heat than aluminum foil. Hmmmm...I wonder how making them with mirrors would work? -- better than aluminum foil I'll bet. And the manufactured ovens provide more insulation so they hang onto the heat better than a cardboard box, or even a box with insulation. The hotpot is designed with a thick glass outer pot and lid, with a smaller black enameled pot that nests inside, creating a 1/2" pocket of trapped air between the cooking inner pot and the insulating outer pot. Much better efficiency -- I've read that they use them at base camps on Mt. Everest.

I was going to get pix of my setup but need to pick up some batteries for my camera. In the meantime, I've described my experience so far on my most recent blog post: magicalthyme.blogspot.com for anyone who's interested.

I have some chicken cooking right now. Bread is next on my list. I have some store-bought cheezy pancake/biscuit mix leftover from last year -- I'm going to practice biscuits with that first. Once I'm rid of it, I'm going to pick up some locally grown flours (buckwheat and potato) and start baking for real. This should help insulate me from coming wheat shortages and commodity manipulations, as well as be better for the environment and local economy! :D
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jtuck004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-06-10 10:24 AM
Response to Reply #10
11.  I have looked at those but wondered
about the latitude. We are in Eastern Washington, with long sunny days in summer and really short ones in Winter, so it sounds like I may just have to figure out timing, especially working around the cloudy ones.

That's useful info on the differences and uses. I did try something like this a few years ago in Oklahoma, and I have thought about doing something similar. Really curious to see how it works in the winter here.

Thank you, and thanks for the blog info as well. I appreciate it, and I will let you know if I get my winter experiment going.
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