By Joachim von Braun, FT, August 9 2010
With the current extreme price increases for wheat, we are observing potentially the early stages of another global food-price crisis. Even if this does not evolve into something as dramatic as the crisis of 2007-08, when prices of major agricultural commodities from corn to rice shot up to record levels, triggering food riots from Bangladesh to Haiti, it is a stark indication of the perilous state of the world food market. Some lessons have been learned from 2008, but too little has been done to prevent future crises. In particular the malfunctioning of world grain markets has not been addressed – a failure now haunting world markets.
The fixing of international food prices today is the result of three forces: expectations on future supply and demand; the growing role of speculators in commodity markets, and the importance of food prices for political stability in countries such as Egypt. Today, low-income countries and the poor are actually more vulnerable than before the last food crisis.
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The setting of prices at the main international commodity exchanges was significantly influenced by speculation that boosted prices.
Not only are food and energy markets linked, but also food and financial markets have become intertwined – in short, the “financialisation” of food trade. There are increasing indications that some financial capital is shifting from speculation on housing and complex derivatives to commodities, including food. While the financial markets have recently been regulated to curb excessive speculation, commodity markets have remained largely untouched and are the open flank of the system attracting speculation.
A food price crisis is not of great significance for the relatively rich. But for the bottom 3bn it poses a nutrition disaster with appalling long-term health consequences. The number of undernourished people has increased against the backdrop of economic recession. The poor, however, do not take extreme price crises calmly any more, as the 2008 price spike revealed. The food riots followed an increase of prices by about 100 per cent – the current wheat price changes made it more than halfway to that point in a matter of days – and calmed down quickly when prices came down. Policymakers have come to understand this tipping point and try to act long before it is reached.
Now we must distinguish between necessary measures that should largely be the preserve of national governments and those best handled at the international level. The food price volatility must be addressed at a global level. It is essential to ensure open trade and transparent, appropriately regulated market institutions.
Excessive speculation in food commodities should be curbed. For that, increased transparency should be enforced and costs of speculation for non-commercial traders should be raised, for example through capital deposits. However, simply excluding food from speculative futures markets would be wrong, as these activities also play a useful intelligence role. Reliable international grain reserves policies need to be established. The Group of Eight meetings of 2008 and 2009 cited this as an option to be further explored, but failed to act.
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d4e78538-a3e2-11df-9e3a-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=a955630e-3603-11dc-ad42-0000779fd2ac.html The (international financial system) speculation in food markets is largely unregulated, hence manipulative and volatile. Current wheat and other cereal prices, for example, appear to have been quite deliberately "talked up" as well as pumped-up, as this recent Guardian article points out:But critics maintain that spikes in prices of global commodities are increasingly driven by speculators. They said the effects of a block on Russian exports by the Russian government were overplayed. Russia sends most of its wheat exports to Egypt, Syria and other middle eastern countries, which can access grain from other sources.
Reports that large amounts of India's wheat stockpile could rot were premature, they said. Also, while India is the world's second largest rice and wheat producer, it only exports a fraction of its output and would have little impact on global supply.
"Fears have been piqued that we may be heading back to the 2007-8 food crisis," notes Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an analysts at Barclays Capital. "In our view, market fundamentals are less compelling this time around with many of the key factors that propelled prices in that period missing."
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/06/commodity-prices-food-inflation