"This sucker's going down." That was George Bush's pithy description of the US economy when the financial crisis in the autumn of 2008 threatened to bring down every bank on Wall Street.
Concerted international co-operation of a sort never seen before averted disaster that winter and by the middle of last year the world's biggest economy seemed to be on the mend. American factories started to hum again, shares rallied sharply and growth resumed. The US was showing its traditional resilience when faced with adversity and all was right with the world.
That judgment now appears premature. The latest economic data from the US has been poor. Traditionally, America's flexible labour market has meant job creation in the aftermath of recessions has been robust; this time it was weak even when output was growing strongly in late 2009 and 2010. Recently it has gone into reverse.
The official unemployment rate in the US is 9.5% but the real level of joblessness is far higher after part-time workers who would prefer to have full-time jobs are taken into account. In a country with a less generous welfare system than that in Europe, unemployment acts as a brake on demand, making consumers save rather than spend.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/aug/23/us-economy-unemployment-property-market