Perhaps more municipal-bond investors should have voted Democratic.
Thanks in part to Republicans' blowout election victory, not to mention renewed inflation fears spawned by the Federal Reserve's latest round of bond-buying, munis have sold off sharply this month. Interest rates for the highest-quality long-term muni bonds have increased by more than half a percentage point since the beginning of November. That's the sharpest increase in nearly two years.
For starters, after gaining control of the House of Representatives, Republicans are well-placed to block further economic stimulus. That's bad for cash-strapped states. Deficits that were partly papered over with federal funds may now be more difficult to reckon with. That could be spooking investors. Also, the higher chance of tax cuts being extended makes munis comparatively less attractive. Flows into muni funds, strong since the beginning of 2009, according to data provider Lipper, suddenly flattened off after the election.
And lower demand is being met with higher supply, says Wells Fargo, as muni issuers race to sell paper before the year-end expiration of the Build America Bonds program. Another subsidy opposed by Republicans, BABs helped revive muni markets by allowing states to effectively market taxable debt at tax-exempt rates, attracting new investors. As BABs disappear, so too may those investors, who absorbed a fifth of muni supply this year.
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