The Post-American Shift of Axis

[unhappycamper]

The Post-American Shift of Axis
Sabah, Turkey
By Omer Taspinar
Translated By Omer Aslan
15 November 2010
Edited by Gillian Palmer

The post-2008 atmosphere of euphoria and hope that followed President Obama’s election that year is long gone. Instead, pessimism and frustration now prevail all over the country. We have observed how one concept gained currency in virtually all academic conferences, think-tanks, and even in state planning reports: “post-American world,” namely, the world after the U.S. The concept of post-Americanism does not of course mean that “the U.S. is collapsing.” Yet, although it is not collapsing, the U.S. has been on a steady course of decline. The once American-centered economic and political world order has disappeared. We are now heading toward a brand new multipolar world order that sits on power balance. And there is a universal “shift of axis” of this new coming world order. The economic and political power balance has been shifting from the Northern and Western axes to the East and South. This is to say, the global domination that Europe and the U.S. have established since the 17th century has been gradually melting. While European and American powers have weakened, Asia and Brazil have been rising.

The rising strategic importance of Turkey, both economically and in terms of its foreign policy, is only a single part of this larger picture. This is in fact why we have recently discussed with John Ikenberry, Steve Walt, Joseph Nye, John Mearsheimer and Francis Fukuyama the new rising stars such as India, Brazil and Turkey in a conference entitled “The Rising Powers in a Post-American World.” The shift of axis to the East and South is an undeniable fact that has been taking place on a global scale. The engines of this axis shift are two rising Asian powers: China and India, with a combined population of 3 billion, tenfold of that of the U.S. with its 200 million people. Brazil’s population now equals that of Western Europe. China’s economy will have surpassed the American economy in about a decade. India has been growing economically, and it has the largest population living in a democratic system. The latter fact gives India its biggest advantage because this fact makes India more likely than China to have a stable future. As the Chinese middle class keeps growing and a capitalist economy takes even deeper hold in the country, it will be harder to keep intact the communist-authoritarian order in China. One could say that China might suffer from dire political troubles in about 20 years. For this reason, India might prove to be a better model than China in the long run. On the other hand, China’s military power is incomparably mightier than India’s. China and the U.S. are rivals in the Pacific because China now exerts more strategic influence on Japan, Korea, and Australia. This partially explains why the U.S. has kept close ties to India: to balance the Chinese rise in a post-American world. Obama tellingly uttered his support during his trip to India last week for India’s membership at the U.N. Security Council.

As a result, the post-American world sits on a tight balance between the U.S. and China. We have been witnessing the omens already in the balance that exists between their economies. The American economy is not accustomed to functioning with a low interest rate and high debt, which leads the analyst to ask how the U.S. manages to maintain such a low interest rate while the U.S. economy is swamped with oceanic amounts of debt. How can the U.S. afford to keep increasing its debt at such a low interest rate and low cost? The simple reason is that China has been purchasing American Treasury bonds. But why does China buy American bonds when these bonds earn China relatively little value in return? The employment balance in China hinges on American consumption. But how long can this post-American shift of axis and balance to the East and South continue? Well, when China finally breaks its economic dependency on the U.S., things will gain a totally new momentum.

[lib2DaBone]

1. American roads and bridges are crumbling...

our electric grid is antique while the American people are taxed to death with little or no money left for essentials.

China..(on the other hand) is building 50,000 miles of high-speed mag-lev rail. They are installing ultra modern computers, upgrading their electric grid and offering free college for those who go into math and engineering.

The only thing The USA is good at is war.. we export lots of it around the globe.

[bemildred]

2. LOL. They got Fukuyama to participate in "The Rising Powers in a Post-American World.”

I gotta give him credit for integrity if that is true. I guess History is not quite done yet.

We have to make sure the Neocons and other militarists get their due credit for turning the place into a dump, for throwing it all away.

[bemildred]

3. The USA has 300 million, not 200 million.

And it bears remembering that a large, growing population is not always a good thing.

[westerebus]

4. You do recall that very large port called DaNang?

Don't be shocked if you see a visit by our fleet in the near future. Strange as it sounds. The good comrades from Hanoi think it is in their interests to open the gates to cooperation.

At the least, they get to kick the tires.

[clixtox]

6. A few US Navy ships might visit Danang, and a few have already ...

visited other ports here in Vietnam.

There will never be any type of permanent USA presence in Danang, or anywhere else in Vietnam. EVER!

The government of Vietnam will work the Americans(US) to receive aid and other consideration from the USA. They will never be seduced into allowing he USA any toehold in this nation. While American(US) tourists are very welcome and, I would say almost adored(Believe it or not!), the memories of our rapacious past, and the current predilection to perpetrate war crimes around the world, is vividly evident to these former victims. The USA never fulfilled the terms of the peace accords Kissinger won the Nobel Peace Prize for promulgating, among many outstanding issues. The residual effects of the mass poisoning with, "Agent Orange," of broad swaths of Vietnam are also in plain sight. The many massacres of innocent peasants during the "American War" are referred to in Vietnamese films and books. The US has only made minor efforts to compensate Vietnam for the incredible destruction wrought on the nearly defenseless nation, on, as always, specious arguments and manufactured evidence.

The USA is desperate to develop counter weights to the immense influence China currently enjoys in SE Asia. The USA would love to get in between VN and China and exploit the current simmering tensions due to competing claims on the Paracel (occupied since 1974 by PRC) and the Spratly Island groups in the East Sea, the Vietnamese name, or AKA the South China Sea in China and most maps. Very interesting situation. Look it up...

This paranoia provides Vietnam the sort of leverage required to finally squeeze a modicum of justice from the USA's heartless leaders. THe USA should be here now doing the right things to begin to support their long suffering victims, whatever it takes. Perhaps someday down the line the government of Vietnam will be able to trust the USA, but there is absolutely no rational way they could now. For sure!

By the way: I was just in Danang, and the nearby tourist destination of Hoi An two weeks ago. Danang is a huge city behind gorgeous beaches that has a large port. That area is being massively developed as many huge resorts are being constructed between Danang and Hoi An, about 30Kilometers apart. Tourism is one of the pillars of the VNese economy as the resulting inflow of foreign cash is crucial to the chronic balance of trade deficit.

Manufacturing here requires so much imported materials the net increase in foreign reserves is astoundingly small. Tourism, on the other hand, nets almost the total amount spent by tourists in the country.

[westerebus]

7. Never say never.

It's not just American paranoia. Japan is invested in VN. They too occupied VN. The Japanese are very concerned over China's intentions. Strange bed fellows abound in VN.

The US has an obligation to the people of VN. Which it ignored. The US has an obligation to the American people. It forgets that obligation as often as possible.

I hope things will improve and stay peaceful there. The out come here is not yet decided.

[clixtox]

8. Many companies from the USA have made huge investments...

in Vietnam, Intel just opened a billion dollar chip fabrication factory near Ho Chi Minh City a few months ago, for example.

[upi402]

5. The timeframe?

I am guessing 2 years but I've been amazed at just how long the facades hang tough.
John Mearsheimer seems to have a crystal ball. He called the Iraq war right down the line.