Yuck, it looks like a wipeout

[Yo_Mama]

ADP Employment came in really bad today, so Friday's household survey will probably be pretty bad.
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_May_11.pdf
This only tracks private jobs, and I don't think governments are hiring.

Chicago PMI took a horrible fall in May.
http://www.kingbiz.com/reports/ISM-C%20May%202011.pdf

So did NACM (business-to-business credit), and it's on the expense side, so this predicts tighter company spending. This is very negative for the Q3 outlook:
http://web.nacm.org/CMI/PDF/CMIcurrent.pdf

God save us from QE3, that's all I can say. China and India aren't looking very strong, and it looks like manufacturing export demand is dropping.

It appears we completely lost our growth edge over April and May. Europe's in deep with its sovereign debt/banking crisis, and where is global growth to come from? Germany was powering Europe, but Germany is very export dependent!

[lib2DaBone]

1. I think $4 gas is the kill switch for the economy.....

All this coincides with he arrival of $4 gas.

We need to get the Enron speculators out of the equation.. but we know this will never happen.

[liberal N proud]

2. BINGO!

[ChairmanAgnostic]

3. if the QE3 were a passenger liner, icebergs ahead.

[notesdev]

4. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

Unemployment map over time:

http://www.latoyaegwuekwe.com/geographyofarecession.html


I remember this from about a year ago and am shocked at how much worse it has gotten since.

[Yo_Mama]

5. I'm scared!

I'm so scared that I'm practically pissing my britches.

We're rerunning 2008, and that did not end well.

[ixion]

6. to continue your metaphor: We never got back on the board after the last wipeout

and this is the wave coming along to smash whats left against the rocks below the surf.

Look out. This is gonna hurt.

[dixiegrrrrl]

7. Scary..awesome....bookmarking till the latest version comes out.

[Yo_Mama]

9. Waiting for light MV sales for May

ISM Manufacturing already came out, that was another nasty whack:
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm
New orders and order backlogs both down over 10 points!

This comes on top of a global manufacturing slowdown - it turns out that when it is hard for US workers to afford to get to work, workers in other countries are suffering also.

In the beginning of the year the last US growth edge was domestic light vehicle sales. Let's see how May does - so far, GM is down 1.2% on the month.

[golfguru]

8. This confirms my theory that no one can create prosperity by borrowing

to spend on consumption, and non-productive outlets such as
entitlements and military. The only time borrowing works is
if put to a productive use such as starting a business,
building construction, or even money spent on improving health.

The worst part is we owe TRILLIONS to China, Japan, UK and others
and we continue military adventures in far away lands.

Yes I am afraid, very afraid and will seriously consider buying
firearms which I never considered before.

[Po_d Mainiac]

13. Invest in 5 gal buckets

You'd be amazed how much food you can grow in one.

[Turbineguy]

15. Wall street has diverted investment money

into derivatives and exotic profit instruments. What used to go into building things now goes to farts stored in a computer.

[girl gone mad]

10. No one could have seen it coming..

:eyes:

[bemildred]

11. Happy talk will only take you so far. nt

[sendero]

12. "recovery summer II"..

.... the sequel.

[Warpy]

14. Yes, the GOP House put the brakes on nicely, didn't they?

We just have to make sure they get the blame for it.

[Yo_Mama]

16. Huh?

So far they haven't had much to do with it.

IMO the Fed made a bad error with QE2, and last December's choices (entirely Dem) were awful also. The bottom line is that Congress cut taxes very dramatically for the high earners, and actually raised them for about the bottom 40% of earners. That combined with the high cost inflation induced by QE2 to cut real incomes for the majority of the population, which is now showing up in the economy. Worse yet, there was a delayed response because higher earners do spend more money, and if you give a couple earning 200K a 4K tax cut, it's going to pop up in the retail sales very dramatically. But longer term, the fate of the economy (jobs) depend on the bottom 70%.

Democrats should act like Democrats, and no one should be trying to protect them when they don't. It's important to change how the country is actually run, and to do that we need to recognize our mistakes.

The cut off of the 99rs wasn't a wise choice either - the relatively few losing jobs now can get extended benefits, but with unemployment climbing back over 9%, those who were hard hit and have been out of work mostly since the start of the recession are in dire straits with no real government help.