Does anyone here follow developments in "Biophysical Economics"?

[GliderGuider]

I'd be interested in opinions on the article I liked to on E/E: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=297727&mesg_id=297727

The basic premise is that the economic troubles we're entering may be a symptom of a decline in the net energy of oil.

[bemildred]

1. I find it unconvincing.

Certainly the rising cost of energy has relevance, but it is more in the nature of a result of the general situation, of exponential growth, than the cause of the situation in itself. Should we manage to get some infinite source of cheap portable energy on line in the next couple of years, other shortages and problems would soon take the place of this one. Exponential growth is not compatible with stability and predictability.

[GliderGuider]

2. I agree completely with your last two sentences.

Regarding resource limits, though - do you think resource limits might precipitate or exacerbate instability? It seems to me that it might, especially when it's a "king-pin" resource like oil that's essential to the world's economy at the moment.

[bemildred]

3. You can certainly argue that hard limits force "adjustments".

It would be better if we, humans, as collectives, political entities, were able to be intelligent enough to manage these things, create equilibrium systems and manage them well and live in them well; but we don't seem to be, so far, and most of the theoretical stuff I have read doesn't really measure up in that department, it's all dogma and theological thinking, utopian dreams, an endless list, all selling simple-minded KoolAid at high prices, nationalist dogmas on one hand, religious ones on the other, dozens of exceptionalist narratives, none of which are true. They always punt when it's time to ground their system, punt to a utopian future or a golden past or a theological singularity, which makes it OK to employ any means now, so you wind up with the some old expedient disfunctionality. And that still sells.

It is certainly true that cheap petroleum is a critical resource for things as they are now, and that therefore things as they are now won't last long. And that certainly means instability. Oil was under $20/bbl in the last decade if I remember right.

The wild card in all this is technological change, but I am reluctant to think of that as a deus ex machina that is going to rescue us. Science has its limits too.

[bemildred]

4. I mean, seriously, there is no stability now, there has not been for several centuries.

"All that is solid melts into air".

[GliderGuider]

5. In a general sense, instability is just another word for change.

Most of our perceptions of order and predictability are illusions. Even knowing that, though, doesn't keep us from becoming attached to the idea of order - and then suffering when the illusion is revealed.

Nobody with half a brain would expect the world to hit peak oil and not be affected, but we're still shocked and appalled when oil prices begin to gyrate and gasoline and food prices start to climb.

I think a lot of us have a feeling of "What the hell just happened?" regarding the events of late 2008. We've had housing bubbles before, we've had venal bankers since the moneychangers in the temple (or longer), we've had crop failures before - but there seems to be a spreading sense that this time it was different. Of course, when one hears hoofbeats, the smart money bets on horses rather than zebras. But for those watching the changes at the resource level - the oil supply plateau, the natural gas fracking, the ocean fish depletion, the fresh water shortages, the plummeting concentrations of metals in a dozen different ores - there is a sense that Meadows et al were probably right back in 1971. There are limits to growth, and it's reasonable to expect loud crunching noises as they start to kick in.

[bemildred]

6. Indeed.

What worries me is that my government seems to be intent not only on keeping its head buried deep in the sand, it wants to shove my head down there too. It's not just that they are trying to keep the old game alive instead of taking immediate action to adjust to change, they are scared to death of talking turkey with the public too. "Apres moi, le deluge."