Made Up Jobs Numbers Out Tomorrow

[mhr]

TAKING STOCK -- JOBS NUMBER LIKELY TO SEND RATES UP, STOCKS DOWN
By JOHN CRUDELE
New York Post
June 3, 2004

The government will probably pump a very hefty dose of imaginary jobs into tomorrow's Labor report and the result could be unsettling for the financial markets.

Wall Street is anticipating healthy growth of around 250,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at 5.6 percent.

Included in whatever figure is released tomorrow will be jobs that the government actually counts through its employer surveys, adjustments for the seasons, and jobs that the Labor Department thinks are being created by new companies it hasn't yet reached in its polls.

The big surprise could come in that last category — invisible new companies. The Labor Department calls this calculation its CES Net Birth/Death Model. (http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm)

The effect of this estimate can be big.

Snip ......

http://www.nypost.com/business/22197.htm

[louis c]

1. jobs' reports

The last few jobs' reports have been hailed by the spinners in president Bush's campaign as a positive achievement. Not so, if we look at the facts. Those hard working Americans who have lost their jobs (3,000,000) in the first three years of this disastrous administration who have now found work (600,000) recently are working for far less salary and benefits. For instance, if a worker making 50k per year plus health benefits losses his job and still needs to pay his bills and feed his family, he is forced to work two part-time jobs. These jobs are far less challenging, together paying 40k per year with no benefits. The worker knows he has just received a 20% pay cut and his family is without health care. This example is repeated far too often throughout this country. No matter how hard the idiot in the white House, and his dominion of spinners try to convince these folks that they are better off because they now have two jobs instead of just one, the workers know the truth, because they live it. That's why the jobs' numbers haven't translated into improved poll numbers on the economy for the scumbags.

[mhr]

3. Welcome To DU Louis C

eom

[Catt03]

2. CES...I keep reading about this

and remember they changed the formula a couple of months ago. Why doesn't anyone report on how the labor market is manipulated?

I have read about it in Business week and Fortune but no where else.

Anyone understand this and is it valid...adding the CES?

[tritsofme]

4. The current benchmark has been in use for over a year,

for the net birth/death model, and people started complaining when it produced numbers they do not care for.

I did not hear such an outroar when the net birth/death model subtracted 321,000 jobs in January.

If all these jobs are "imaginary" then we can expect to see some drastic revisions downward for March and April.