Consumer confidence leaps (Conference board # posts 8-point gain )

[papau]

http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/29/news/economy/confidence/index.htm?cnn=yes

Consumer confidence leaps

Conference board measure of confidence posts 8-point gain to best level in two years.
June 29, 2004: 10:18 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. consumers were far more confident in June, according to the most recent Conference Board survey released Tuesday, with the index coming in well above Wall Street expectations.

The board's June index came in at 101.9., up from the revised 93.1 reading in May. It marked the best reading for the index in two years. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast the index would rise to 95.

Consumer confidence is important because it correlates closely with consumer spending behavior, and spending by consumers accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.<snip>

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index Increases More Than Eight Points in June June 29, 2004

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which was virtually unchanged last month, increased sharply in June. The Index now stands at 101.9 (1985=100), up from 93.1 in May. The Present Situation Index is now 104.8, up from 90.5 in May. The Expectations Index rose to 100.0 from 94.8.

The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS NFO. TNS NFO is one of the TNS group of companies (LSE: TNN). The cutoff date for June’s preliminary results was June 22nd.



“The strong improvement in current conditions has propelled Consumer Confidence to levels not seen since June 2002,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “Looking ahead, consumers expect the economy to continue to grow at a healthy clip and to continue to generate additional jobs. And, with prices at the pump beginning to ease, the short-term outlook remains favorable.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved considerably in June. Those saying business conditions are “good” rose to 25.6 percent, up from 22.2 percent. Those claiming conditions have worsened fell to 17.5 percent from 21.6 percent. Consumers claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 26.5 percent from 30.3 percent. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” rose to 18.0 percent from 16.6 percent.

Consumers are more optimistic about the short-term future. Those expecting business conditions to improve in the next six months rose to 23.4 percent from 22.8 percent. Consumers expecting conditions to worsen declined to 9.2 percent from 10.1 percent.

The employment outlook remains upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs to become available increased to 19.7 percent from 18.7 percent. Those expecting fewer jobs edged down to 17.1 percent from 17.3 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes rose to 19.3 percent, up from 17.1 percent last month.

[Zeke]

1. Very Strange...

Because interest rates are going up and consumer spending is actually down.

Very low sale numbers for father's day and the past the month.

If consumer confidence is up, why are sales down?

I believe nothing Bush Inc. says about the economy.

[Frodo]

4. I may have the answer - "they aren't".

Consumer spending is not down - it's up strongly

And sales are not down either. Those number also look pretty good.

I don't know about father's day sales, but the economists have actually been wonder the opposite of what you are saying... how can spending be so solid without stronger confidence numbers. Now we have both.

Interest rates are going up because things are expanding. You can't say "how can there be expansion when rates are rising".

[Wright Patman]

2. Oftentimes

consumers do the exact opposite of what they tell these surveys.

I remember economic pundits making this point when the number was hitting new lows a couple of years ago.

Don't worry, they'd counsel, watch what consumers do and not what they say.

[papau]

3. this is the Confidence level that caused folks to increase spending

in June from May - indeed savings went down 0.4% in June as we spent more of our income.

The June job growth numbers are locked in and are very positive - but again only because of the "special estimate" of the pretend jobs of those working at home and not yet in system

Release of Jobs data is Friday - and Bush is having Speech written for 11 am "good news" comment on Friday.

Our media will not analyse data - and impression will be left that all is well.

I do not see our media telling enough truth to stop the growth in confindence.

But then I do not see it causing much more of an impact that the 5 point rise in the poll that Bush already got these last 2 weeks - and that only brough him to "even" with Kerry.

If Kerry sells himself as non-stiff good guy at convention, the polls will break hard in his favor.

I hope!

[tritsofme]

5. I know you have your doubts about the Birth/Death Model

but have you ever been able to find out if the number that is released in that model is seasonally adjusted or not? Meaning, do we know for sure if the model is adding 200k to a seasonally adjusted number of 300k, or is it adding 200k to a non-seasonally adjusted number of 1 million?

And also, do we know when the projection drops off the survey? When the final payroll report is released for a specific month, does that still include data from the model?

I haven't been able to find this information anywhere, it would be great if you knew.